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← Back to GamesOct 9, 2021Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wisconsin by 4.3

Home Win Probability

Illinois 35%

Market (consensus)

Illinois +12

Edge: Illinois +12 (7.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 9, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
WisconsinWisconsin
3714024
IllinoisIllinois
00000

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-100-170-24
IllinoisWisconsin

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ILLWISILLWISILLWISILLWISILLWISWISILLWISILLWISILLWISILLWISPUNT35ydFG1867ydPUNT3-2ydTO519ydPUNT518ydTD1479ydPUNT514ydPUNT36ydPUNT423ydEND420ydTD1375ydPUNT31ydTO643ydPUNT414ydTD586ydDOWNS818ydPUNT35ydDOWNS1268ydEND1056yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Wisconsin and Illinois
StatisticWisconsinIllinois
Passing10-1911-34
Pass Yards10067
Rush Yards39126
Total Yards49193
Turnovers20
3rd Down7-131-12
Penalties9-1010-0
Possession42:4317:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Wisconsin
passing
Graham Mertz
10/19, 100 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Chez Mellusi
21 CAR, 145 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kendric Pryor
2 REC, 47 YDS
defense
Noah Burks
1.5 TFL
Illinois
passing
Artur Sitkowski
8/27, 55 YDS
rushing
Chase Brown
8 CAR, 35 YDS
receiving
Isaiah Williams
4 REC, 23 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brandon Peters pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the Illin 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Brandon Peters pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 30

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.98

Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

John Chenal run for 6 yds to the Wisc 42

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.56

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.83

Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Illin 39

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.06

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for no gain to the Illin 43

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the Illin 36

4th & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.97

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Illin 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 8 yds to the Illin 23

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.23

John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.42

Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Illin 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

4th & 7Field Goal Good+25 yds

Collin Larsh 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd to the Illin 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 6 yds to the Illin 32

3rd & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.86

Brandon Peters sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 41

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WIS False Start (Ferguson,Jake) 5 yards from WIS41 to WIS36. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.21

Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the Wisc 49

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.04

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Illin 43

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 40

3rd & 3Interception0 ydsPPA -2.89

Graham Mertz pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 3

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 1

3rd & 12Penalty+15 yds

Peters,Brandon pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Hicks,Faion) 15 yards from ILL01 to ILL16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 21

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 58 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 29

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.17

Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Jack Dunn run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis III

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Graham Mertz run for 10 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 46

2nd & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.50

Braelon Allen run for 23 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Illin 26

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Illin 23

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

John Chenal run for 1 yd to the Illin 22

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.86

John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.39

Braelon Allen run for 17 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Illin 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

John Chenal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Carlos Sandy

3rd & 6Penalty+10 yds

Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Bryant,Pat PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Williams,Caesar) 10 yards from ILL29 to ILL39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daniel Barker

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey Washington

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Patrick Bryant

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 12

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 16

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 18

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 56 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for no gain to the Illin 22

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.00

Chase Brown run for 23 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey Washington

2nd & 10Penalty0 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Patrick Bryant

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 12

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.81

Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake Ferguson

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Brady Schipper run for 7 yds to the Wisc 30

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WIS False Start (Seltzner,Josh) 5 yards from WIS25 to WIS20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chez Mellusi

3rd & 12Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.06

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 13 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 8 yds to the Wisc 44

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Illin 45

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Illin 42

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.04

Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 4 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake Ferguson

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Illin 34

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.27

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.18

Braelon Allen run for 12 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Chez Mellusi run for 15 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey Washington

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 9Punt+5 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Dean Engram returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.28

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 26 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 44

1st & 22Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Graham Mertz pass complete to John Chenal for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 16Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.62

Chimere Dike run for 12 yds to the Illin 38

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.18

Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -4.10

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Illin 27 Braelon Allen fumbled, forced by Tarique Barnes, recovered by Illin Kerby Joseph

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Isaiah Williams run for 1 yd to the Illin 26

2nd & 11Penalty+15 yds

Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY WIS Roughing The Passer (Herbig,Nick) 15 yards from ILL26 to ILL41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Tip Reiman

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Dalevon Campbell

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 14

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Chez Mellusi run for 8 yds to the Wisc 22

2nd & 2Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.72

Chez Mellusi run for 23 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.75

Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 21 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Braelon Allen run for 23 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 32

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 33

4th & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 3 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 5 yds to the Illin 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 2 yds to the Illin 43

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey Washington

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Illin 41

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

John Chenal run for 3 yds to the Illin 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Conor Schlichting punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the Illin 14

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 17

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.04

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 10 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Melvin,Semar) 15 yards from ILL27 to ILL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 7 yds to the Illin 49

2nd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.90

Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 16 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Wisc 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.82

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Patrick Bryant

4th & 8Penalty0 yds

Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Bryant,Pat, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Burton,Donte) 11 yard from WIS33 to WIS22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.52

Chase Brown run for no gain to the Wisc 22

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.63

Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Kendric Pryor run for 7 yds to the Wisc 29

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.29

Brady Schipper run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Graham Mertz run for 12 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jack Dunn run for 2 yds to the Wisc 47

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Brady Schipper run for 10 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Illin 38

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.36

Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

John Chenal run for 4 yds to the Illin 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

John Chenal run for 2 yds to the Illin 27

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.68

John Chenal run for 5 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
55%
33 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
100%
6 plays
38%
8 plays
50%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays

Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
12%
17 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
40%
10 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
6 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays