Skip to main content
← Back to GamesNov 6, 2021Week 10

House Prediction

Model Margin

Notre Dame by 30

Home Win Probability

Notre Dame 95%

Market (consensus)

Notre Dame -21

Edge: Notre Dame -21 (9.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 6, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
30306
Notre DameNotre Dame
01701734

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-33-310-317-627-634-6
Notre DameNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDNAVNDNAVPUNT35ydPUNT30ydPUNT34ydFG1336ydDOWNS740ydPUNT34ydFG1174ydPUNT37ydTD1166ydPUNT35ydTD595ydEND24ydFG1471ydPUNT35ydPUNT36ydPUNT518ydSAF2-1ydTD754ydDOWNS728ydTD753ydEND729yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Notre Dame
StatisticNavyNotre Dame
Passing1-324-30
Pass Yards18280
Rush Yards166150
Total Yards184430
Turnovers00
3rd Down4-157-13
Penalties6-447-75
Possession34:3325:27

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Xavier Arline
1/2, 18 YDS
rushing
Isaac Ruoss
22 CAR, 73 YDS
receiving
Jayden Umbarger
1 REC, 18 YDS
defense
Notre Dame
passing
Jack Coan
23/29, 269 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kyren Williams
17 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Kevin Austin
6 REC, 139 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Josh Lugg) to the NDame 30

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 35

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 37

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jack Coan run for 3 yds to the NDame 40

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 30 yds, downed at the Navy 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden Umbarger

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.58

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 28

3rd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 30

4th & 10Punt+55 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NOTREDAME 25 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Barnes) to the NDame 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 21

3rd & 4Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 19

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Carlinos Acie run for 4 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 39

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 41

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.02

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +1.77

Jayden Umbarger run for 32 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the NDame 22

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the NDame 20

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the NDame 16

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.62

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.00

Tai Lavatai sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 22

2nd & 18Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.17

Tai Lavatai sacked by Jordan Botelho for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 29

3rd & 25Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, False Start (Lirion Murtezi) to the NDame 34

3rd & 30Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

James Harris II run for 2 yds to the NDame 32

4th & 28Field Goal Good+49 yds

Bijan Nichols 49 Yd Field Goal

4th & 28Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 42 yds , Matt Salerno return for 7 yds to the NDame 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 35

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.22

Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.67

Jack Coan pass complete to Deion Colzie for 31 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 26

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Deion Colzie

3rd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 7 yds to the Navy 19

4th & 4Sack-11 ydsPPA -3.43

Jack Coan sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 30

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Navy 33

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 36

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -0.71

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai Lavatai

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 2 yds to the NDame 22

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.23

Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Jacob Busic

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 5 yds to the NDame 37

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.63

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.24

Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 38 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -0.98

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 1 yd to the Navy 10 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (Braden Lenzy) to the Navy 20

1st & 19Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the Navy 19

2nd & 18Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the Navy 10

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds to the Navy 6

4th & 5Field Goal Good+24 yds

Jonathan Doerer 24 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 31

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 32

4th & 3Punt+16 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 16 yds to the NDame 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the NDame 35

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NDame 40

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.90

Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the Navy 45

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.94

Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY NAVY offside (Straw, Nicholas) 5 yards to the NAVY37, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Rush+22 ydsPPA -0.20

Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Rayuan Lane) to the Navy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the Navy 11

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.41

Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 12

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.05

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 11 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Kyren Williams 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

James Harris II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 25

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.16

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 25

4th & 10Penalty+5 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (Xavier Watts) to the Navy 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 65 yds, downed at the NDame 5

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.30

Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.69

Kyren Williams run for 12 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jack Coan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 3 yds to the NDame 30

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+70 ydsPPA +6.87

Kevin Austin Jr. 70 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)

3rd & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 63 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 22 yds to the Navy 24

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.82

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 28

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 63 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 23 yds to the Navy 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 22

2nd & 13Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.28

Chance Warren run for 18 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Carlinos Acie run for 9 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Arline, Xavier pass incomplete to Warren, Chance, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Griffith, Houston) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NAVY.

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the NDame 24

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Anton Hall Jr. run for no gain to the NDame 24

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.25

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the NDame 17

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.51

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 18

3rd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.85

Isaac Ruoss run for 10 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the NDame 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NDame 4

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the NDame 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Bijan Nichols 21 Yd Field Goal

4th & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 61 yds , Matt Salerno return for 26 yds to the NDame 30

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 32

2nd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.97

Jack Coan sacked by Michael McMorris for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 26

3rd & 14Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.22

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the NDame 35

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 15

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Isaac Ruoss run for no gain to the Navy 15

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 18

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 21

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds, downed at the NDame 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.17

Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 13 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for no gain to the NDame 45

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the Navy 49

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds, downed at the Navy 1

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Mike Mauai run for no gain to the Navy 1

2nd & 10Safety0 ydsPPA -1.77

Xavier Arline run for a loss of 1 yard, Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by Navy Xavier Arline for a SAFETY

3rd & 11Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Riley Riethman kickoff for 63 yds , Kyren Williams return for 29 yds to the NDame 46

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the Navy 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.30

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Navy 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.03

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 14 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jarrett Patterson) to the Navy 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.39

Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 16 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Kyren Williams 20 Yd Run (Jack Coan Pass to Braden Lenzy for Two-Point Conversion)

2nd & -9Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 55 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 15 yds to the Navy 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Carlinos Acie run for 2 yds to the Navy 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.73

Xavier Arline pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 18 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 43

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 3 yds to the Navy 46

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the NDame 49

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the NDame 47

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Xavier Arline pass incomplete to Carlinos Acie, broken up by Isaiah Pryor

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the Navy 44

3rd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.27

Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 26

2nd & 4Penalty-15 yds

Williams, Kyren rush for 6 yards to the NAVY20, PENALTY NOTREDAME personal foul (Lugg, Josh) 15 yards to the NAVY41, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.78

Logan Diggs run for 23 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Rayuan Lane) to the Navy 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the Navy 8

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Logan Diggs 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)

2nd & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 57 yds , Amin Hassan return for 16 yds to the Navy 24

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 32

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.60

Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 44

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 47

4th & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.70

Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the NDame 47 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
26%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
5 plays
0%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
17%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
0%
1 play

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
38%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
77%
13 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play