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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 0.9

Home Win Probability

Notre Dame 38%

Market (consensus)

Notre Dame +2

Edge: Notre Dame +2 (1.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CincinnatiCincinnati
0170724
Notre DameNotre Dame
007613

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-100-177-1713-24
Notre DameCincinnati

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDCINNDCINNDCINNDCINCINNDCINNDCINNDCINCINNDCINNDCINNDCINNDCINNDCINTO1169ydPUNT515ydPUNT615ydPUNT618ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT30ydTO33ydTD38ydFG512ydPUNT724ydPUNT38ydPUNT615ydTD580ydPUNT35ydEND1-1ydMISS763ydDOWNS950ydTO936ydTD438ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT30ydMISS545ydTD880ydTD675ydDOWNS1124ydEND48yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cincinnati and Notre Dame
StatisticCincinnatiNotre Dame
Passing19-3223-46
Pass Yards297257
Rush Yards9384
Total Yards390341
Turnovers13
3rd Down2-116-17
Penalties5-257-55
Possession28:1531:45

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cincinnati
passing
Desmond Ridder
19/32, 297 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jerome Ford
17 CAR, 71 YDS
receiving
Alec Pierce
6 REC, 144 YDS
defense
Notre Dame
passing
Drew Pyne
9/22, 143 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kyren Williams
13 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Michael Mayer
8 REC, 93 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Kyren Williams run for 16 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the NDame 46

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.37

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the Cincy 33

2nd & 7Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.44

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 36

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Avery Davis

4th & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.13

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 20 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Cincy 6

2nd & 6Pass Interception Return+4 ydsPPA -4.47

Jack Coan pass intercepted Ahmad Gardner return for 4 yds to the Cincy 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the Cincy 14

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.18

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 6 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh Whyle

4th & 10Punt-5 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Kyren Williams returns for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 30

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the NDame 33

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.75

Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 34

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the NDame 36

2nd & 13Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 7 yds to the NDame 43

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jack Coan pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+17 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 17 yds to the Cincy 38

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 33

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 6 yds to the Cincy 39

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.90

Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.26

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 17 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 1 yd to the NDame 44

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh Whyle

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Tyler Buchner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.47

Tyler Buchner run for 9 yds to the NDame 28

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Lugg) to the NDame 18

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Avery Davis

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Kyle Hamilton) to the NDame 13

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 39

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 39

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh Whyle

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 22

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tyler Buchner run for no gain to the NDame 22

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 25

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return+27 ydsPPA +0.01

Tyler Buchner pass intercepted Deshawn Pace return for 27 yds to the NDame 8

1st & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the NDame 8

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds to the NDame 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the NDame 11

1st & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the NDame 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Cole Smith 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.87

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 11 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 38

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 36

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 10 yds to the NDame 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.34

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 43

3rd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 9 yds to the Cincy 48

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NDame 47

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 6

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 7

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 7 yds to the Cincy 14

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt+49 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NOTREDAME 47 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NDame 37

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 36

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer

3rd & 11Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.63

Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 23 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jack Coan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.79

Jack Coan sacked by Darrian Beavers and Curtis Brooks for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 48

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.71

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 27 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.12

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 22 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 27 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds to the NDame 38

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Chris Tyree

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Jack Coan pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds, downed at the Cincy 10

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 9

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 7 yds to the Cincy 32

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.52

Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +2.37

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 45 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the NDame 17

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the NDame 12

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+30 yds

Cole Smith 30 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 25

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Kyren Williams run for 8 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery Davis

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.38

Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.04

Drew Pyne pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 17 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Tyler Buchner run for no gain to the Cincy 35

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Drew Pyne run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Michael Mayer

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.48

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 7 yds to the Cincy 37

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Jerome Ford run for 8 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the NDame 47

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the NDame 46

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.05

Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the NDame 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.34

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 19 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack+28 yds

Desmond Ridder sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 38 Desmond Ridder fumbled, forced by Isaiah Foskey, recovered by NDame Drew White , return for 0 yards , return for 28 yds to the Cincy 38

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Avery Davis run for 8 yds to the Cincy 30

2nd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA -0.06

Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.08

Drew Pyne run for 11 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Kyren Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28

2nd & 7Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 50 yds , Kyren Williams returns for no gain to the NDame 24 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the NDame 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery Davis

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for no gain to the Cincy 36

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 31

1st & 15Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +3.54

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 44 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the NDame 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 5 yds to the NDame 19

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Jerome Ford run for no gain to the NDame 19

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Cole Smith 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Drew Pyne pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.97

Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 14 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery Davis

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.99

Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 20 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 7 yds to the Cincy 32

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.71

Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 32 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 5 yds to the Cincy 30

2nd & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.80

Jerome Ford run for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 41

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 6 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.53

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 36 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Jerome Ford run for 11 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Drew Pyne run for 2 yds to the NDame 29

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 24

3rd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.15

Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the NDame 32

4th & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Chris Tyree

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 47

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.40

Drew Pyne pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 12 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery Davis

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.47

Drew Pyne sacked by Jabari Taylor and Malik Vann for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 49

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Drew Pyne pass incomplete

4th & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.02

Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Avery Davis

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jerome Ford run for 7 yds to the NDame 44

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.13

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.27

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 42

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.25

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43

Situational Analysis

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
39%
23 plays
75%
4 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
62%
13 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
36%
14 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
50%
6 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play