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← Back to GamesNov 14, 2021Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Notre Dame by 5.7

Home Win Probability

Virginia 37%

Market (consensus)

Virginia +8.5

Edge: Virginia +8.5 (2.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 14, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Notre DameNotre Dame
7147028
VirginiaVirginia
00033

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-140-213-28
VirginiaNotre Dame

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDVIRNDDOWNS1254ydPUNT38ydTD643ydPUNT3-4ydTD760ydDOWNS1049ydTD980ydTO629ydEND317ydMISS949ydTO2-9ydPUNT510ydPUNT37ydDOWNS919ydTD561ydFG1059ydTO785ydPUNT30ydDOWNS622ydTO839ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Notre Dame and Virginia
StatisticNotre DameVirginia
Passing18-2318-34
Pass Yards174196
Rush Yards24982
Total Yards423278
Turnovers22
3rd Down7-115-14
Penalties4-326-51
Possession29:4130:19

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Notre Dame
passing
Jack Coan
15/20, 132 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kyren Williams
14 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Michael Mayer
7 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Bo Bauer
1.5 TFL, 1 PD
Virginia
passing
Jay Woolfolk
18/33, 196 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Mike Hollins
9 CAR, 44 YDS
receiving
Keytaon Thompson
9 REC, 110 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the NDame 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.19

Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 13 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.59

Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 43

2nd & 12Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.45

Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 13 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Kyren Williams run for 8 yds to the Virg 36

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.83

Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the Virg 28

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the Virg 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 4 yds to the Virg 21

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.59

Jack Coan run for no gain to the Virg 21

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Virg 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 26

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jay Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Virg 29

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jacob Finn punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.56

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 14 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 25

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the Virg 20

4th & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.30

Kyren Williams run for 14 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Michael Mayer 6 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Woolfolk, Jay pass incomplete to Wicks, Dontayvion, PENALTY NOTREDAME offside (Mills, Rylie) 5 yards to the VIRGINIA30, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Penalty-5 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Chris Glaser) to the Virg 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 5 yds to the Virg 30

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Grant Misch) to the Virg 25

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Devin Darrington run for 1 yd to the Virg 26

3rd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.28

Jay Woolfolk sacked by Bo Bauer for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 21

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Jacob Finn punt for 39 yds , Kyren Williams returns for no gain to the NDame 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 6 yds to the NDame 46

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.74

Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 48

3rd & 2Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.37

Logan Diggs run for 26 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.21

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the Virg 6

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the Virg 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Braden Lenzy 4 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Jay Woolfolk sacked by Howard Cross III for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 30

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Virg 32

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.82

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 15 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.41

Jay Woolfolk run for 12 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.33

Mike Hollins run for 10 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 5 yds to the NDame 23

3rd & 5Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.13

Jay Woolfolk run for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 30

4th & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA -1.64

Jay Woolfolk run for 10 yds to the NDame 20

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 19

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jack Coan run for 5 yds to the NDame 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.65

Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 10 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jack Coan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 39

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.26

Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.31

Lorenzo Styles Jr. run for 37 yds to the VIRGINIA 15 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Deion Colzie) to the Virg 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 22

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.84

Kyren Williams 22 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Jelani Woods for 9 yds to the Virg 20

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.02

Jay Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jay Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Virg 33

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 8 yds to the Virg 36

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.21

Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.24

Jay Woolfolk pass intercepted Ramon Henderson return for no gain to the NDame 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 20

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 32

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Jelani Woods for 4 yds to the Virg 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.47

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 15 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.23

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 17 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.52

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 19 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson

3rd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.96

Jay Woolfolk sacked by Bo Bauer and Rylie Mills for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 26

4th & 16Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Brendan Farrell 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-9 ydsPPA -1.26

Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 27 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Mayer) to the NDame 17

1st & 19Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.09

Jack Coan pass intercepted Anthony Johnson return for no gain to the Virg 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 49

2nd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.23

Devin Darrington run for 11 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Dontayvion Wicks pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jelani Woods

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Woolfolk, Jay rush for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME35, PENALTY VIRGINIA holding (Bissinger, Joe) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Jacob Finn punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 17

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 3 yds to the NDame 24

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr.

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jay Bramblett punt for 34 yds, downed at the Virg 42

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Jay Woolfolk run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA +1.35

Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the NDame 46 Keytaon Thompson fumbled, forced by Jack Kiser, recovered by Virg Jelani Woods for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the NDame 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.21

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the NDame 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jacob Rodriguez

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jay Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the NDame 28

4th & 5Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.66

Jay Woolfolk sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 39

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.04

Braden Lenzy run for 31 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.21

Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 11 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the Virg 17

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 2 yds to the Virg 15

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.01

Kevin Austin Jr. 15 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 4 yds to the Virg 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jay Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Virg 34

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the Virg 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.71

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 28 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 11 yds to the NDame 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jelani Woods

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Mike Hollins run for 3 yds to the NDame 13

3rd & 7Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.87

Jay Woolfolk sacked by Justin Ademilola for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 16

4th & 10Field Goal Good+34 yds

Brendan Farrell 34 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Tyler Buchner run for 7 yds to the NDame 14

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the NDame 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the NDame 27

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Lenzy, Braden, PENALTY VIRGINIA pass interference (Sanker, Jonas) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.55

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.43

Logan Diggs run for 19 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.70

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 12 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -5.12

Tyler Buchner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 8 Tyler Buchner fumbled, recovered by Virg Noah Taylor

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 6 yds to the Virg 14

2nd & 4Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.66

Jay Woolfolk sacked by Clarence Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 8

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Jelani Woods

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jacob Finn punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 42

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Chris Tyree run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Tyler Buchner pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 8 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Kyren Williams run for no gain to the Virg 42

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the Virg 35

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the Virg 33

4th & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -2.72

Logan Diggs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 36

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Mike Hollins run for 11 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 7 yds to the NDame 46

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry

3rd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.23

Jay Woolfolk sacked by Rylie Mills and Justin Ademilola for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 44

4th & 12Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.79

Jay Woolfolk pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 19 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+14 ydsPPA -4.30

Jay Woolfolk pass intercepted DJ Brown return for 14 yds to the NDame 14

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.52

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 12

Situational Analysis

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
50%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
83%
6 plays
4th
33%
3 plays

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
44%
27 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
38%
13 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays