Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 9, 2021Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 16.7

Home Win Probability

North Carolina 84%

Market (consensus)

North Carolina -17.5

Edge: Florida State +17.5 (0.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 9, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Florida StateFlorida State
02114035
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
1007825

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-010-710-1410-2117-2817-3525-35
North CarolinaFlorida State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSFG1041ydPUNT3-5ydTD1270ydTD1259ydPUNT31ydTD365ydTO745ydTD880ydEND726ydPUNT39ydTD670ydTD575ydPUNT416ydTD983ydDOWNS970ydPUNT622ydTD1158ydEND55yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Florida State and North Carolina
StatisticFlorida StateNorth Carolina
Passing11-1317-32
Pass Yards145203
Rush Yards238229
Total Yards383432
Turnovers01
3rd Down7-107-13
Penalties5-5012-110
Possession29:4830:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Florida State
passing
Jordan Travis
11/13, 145 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Jordan Travis
14 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Keyshawn Helton
3 REC, 71 YDS
defense
North Carolina
passing
Sam Howell
17/32, 203 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Sam Howell
11 CAR, 108 YDS
receiving
Josh Downs
9 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Ty Chandler run for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 8 yds to the NCaro 44

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 7 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.06

Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 40

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.86

Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

D.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 35

3rd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34

4th & 10Field Goal Good+51 yds

Grayson Atkins 51 Yd Field Goal

4th & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Jonathan Kim kickoff for 61 yds , Corey Wren return for 13 yds to the FlaSt 17 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the FlaSt 32. Power Echols ejected for targeting.

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 27

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 27

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 30

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.99

D.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

D.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 28

3rd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.54

Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the NCaro 39

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds to the NCaro 49

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.88

Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

D.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.12

Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +3.01

Josh Downs 33 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 46

1st & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.56

Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 41

1st & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45

2nd & 16Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 3 yds to the NCaro 47

3rd & 8Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.64

Jashaun Corbin run for 16 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 4 yds to the NCaro 14

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the NCaro 4

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Malik McClain 5 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Sam Howell pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Sam Howell pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 35

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 44

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +4.10

Jordan Travis 53 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

D.J. Jones run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.60

D.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.70

D.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 39

3rd & 7Rush+18 ydsPPA +3.11

Sam Howell run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.54

D.J. Jones run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.19

Sam Howell pass intercepted, touchback. Jarrian Jones return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 7 yds to the FlaSt 27

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.91

Treshaun Ward run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 43

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.16

Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 39

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.85

Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Ontaria Wilson 32 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 21

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.28

D.J. Jones run for 16 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.98

Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 49

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Sam Howell pass incomplete

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Sam Howell pass incomplete

0th & 20End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34

4th & 1Punt+4 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds , Josh Downs returns for 4 yds to the NCaro 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 26

2nd & 14Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.62

Sam Howell run for 10 yds to the NCaro 36

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.07

Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.34

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 21 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.30

Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Kamari Morales 21 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+59 ydsPPA +4.11

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 44 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 9

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.44

Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

D.J. Jones run for no gain to the NCaro 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Sam Howell pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 17

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.20

Treshaun Ward run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Treshaun Ward run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 48

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.50

Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 45

3rd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.46

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 18 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.42

Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 16 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.12

Jordan Travis run for 11 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the NCaro 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Ontaria Wilson 6 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 7 yds to the NCaro 32

3rd & 3Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.42

Sam Howell run for 31 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33

2nd & 6Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.24

Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 28 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Ty Chandler run for no gain to the FlaSt 5

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Ty Chandler run for no gain to the FlaSt 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sam Howell pass incomplete

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.95

Sam Howell pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 14

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.53

Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 20

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 28

4th & 1Punt+18 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds , Josh Downs returns for 18 yds to the NCaro 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Sam Howell pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty-15 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 40

3rd & 21Penalty+15 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 45

3rd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.48

Sam Howell sacked by Malik McClain for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 48

4th & 9Rush+15 ydsPPA +3.61

D.J. Jones run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 3 yds to the FlaSt 19

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 3 yds to the FlaSt 16

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.38

Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.32

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Ty Chandler 2 Yd Run (Josh Downs Pass to Antoine Green for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.06

Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-11 ydsPPA -2.33

TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 37

2nd & 21Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 38

Situational Analysis

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
50%
22 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
55%
31 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
38%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play