Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 8

Home Win Probability

Georgia Tech 30%

Market (consensus)

Georgia Tech +14.5

Edge: Georgia Tech +14.5 (6.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
707822
Georgia TechGeorgia Tech
013141845

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-76-713-727-735-1438-2245-22
Georgia TechNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCGTNCGTNCGTNCGTNCGTNCGTNCGTGTNCGTNCGTNCGTNCGTNCGTNCGTPUNT620ydPUNT39ydTD440ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT714ydFG964ydTO10ydFG4-4ydMISS739ydPUNT32ydTO1129ydTD217ydPUNT65ydEND1-2ydPUNT510ydDOWNS47ydTD339ydPUNT49ydTD881ydTD675ydTD975ydTD875ydFG1252ydTO734ydTD253ydDOWNS4-5ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and Georgia Tech
StatisticNorth CarolinaGeorgia Tech
Passing25-3913-19
Pass Yards306133
Rush Yards63261
Total Yards369394
Turnovers30
3rd Down6-143-11
Penalties7-695-40
Possession30:0529:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Sam Howell
25/39, 306 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Ty Chandler
17 CAR, 48 YDS
receiving
Emery Simmons
3 REC, 110 YDS
defense
Georgia Tech
passing
Jeff Sims
10/13, 112 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jeff Sims
10 CAR, 128 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Malachi Carter
3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

3rd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Sam Howell run for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.16

Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for no gain to the NCaro 45

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett Walston

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

4th & 10Punt+5 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Kyric McGowan returns for 5 yds to the GTech 19

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jordan Yates run for 4 yds to the GTech 23

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 3 yds to the GTech 26

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the GTech 28

4th & 1Blocked Punt0 yds

David Shanahan punt blocked by Giovanni Biggers

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 14 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the GTech 23

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.87

Sam Howell run for 23 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jordan Yates run for 1 yd to the GTech 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 5 yds to the GTech 31

3rd & 4Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.75

Jordan Yates sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 11 yards to the GTech 20

4th & 15Punt+7 yds

David Shanahan punt for 53 yds to the NCaro 27, Josh Downs returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 34 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ja'Qurious Conley) to the NCaro 19

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.52

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 14 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.03

Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Sam Howell sacked by Quez Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 47

2nd & 11Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 45

3rd & 13Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.78

Sam Howell sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 33

4th & 25Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 20

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.46

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 29 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Jordan Yates run for 9 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Yates, Jordan pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Conley, Ja'Qurious) 15 yards to the UNC24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the NCaro 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.50

Jordan Yates pass complete to Kalani Norris for 13 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Yates, Jordan pass incomplete to Gibbs, Jahmyr, PENALTY GATECH holding (Williams, Jordan) 10 yards to the UNC20, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.05

Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 24

2nd & 24Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the NCaro 24

3rd & 24Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 8 yds to the NCaro 16

4th & 0Field Goal Good+34 yds

Brent Cimaglia 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+8 ydsPPA -0.92

Sam Howell run for 8 yds to NCaro 33, Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Jordan Domineck, recovered by GTech Quez Jackson , return for 23 yds to the NCaro 10

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the NCaro 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Jordan Yates pass incomplete to Kalani Norris

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Devin Cochran) to the NCaro 14

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jordan Yates pass incomplete to Kalani Norris

4th & 14Field Goal Good+32 yds

Brent Cimaglia 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.72

Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.45

Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 36 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre Brown

2nd & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -3.20

Sam Howell sacked by Ja'Quon Griffin for a loss of 13 yards to the GTech 42

3rd & 23Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.07

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 11 yds to the GTech 31

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ed Montilus) to the GTech 36

4th & 17Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Grayson Atkins 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Devin Cochran) to the GTech 31

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the GTech 36

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jordan Yates pass incomplete to Dylan Leonard

4th & 8Punt0 yds

David Shanahan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 25

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.56

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.85

Ty Chandler run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 31

2nd & 16Sack+11 ydsPPA +0.84

Sam Howell sacked by Charlie Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ja'Quon Griffin) to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the GTech 49

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Ty Chandler run for no gain to the GTech 49

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.25

Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+37 ydsPPA -2.43

Sam Howell run for no gain to the GTech 46, Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Djimon Brooks, recovered by GTech Demetrius Knight II , return for 37 yds to the NCaro 17

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the NCaro 16

2nd & 9Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jonathan Adorno) to the NCaro 11

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.40

Jeff Sims run for 11 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 27

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.82

Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Howell, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC holding (Anderson, Brian) 10 yards to the UNC22, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.87

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 16 yds to the NCaro 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.65

Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 34

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.56

Sam Howell sacked by Kyle Kennard and Charlie Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 26

4th & 16Punt+3 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , Kyric McGowan returns for 3 yds to the GTech 27

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 25

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dontae Smith run for 5 yds to the GTech 30

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.93

Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Jeff Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 35

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kyric McGowan

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kyric McGowan

4th & 12Punt+11 yds

David Shanahan punt for 44 yds , Josh Downs returns for 11 yds to the NCaro 32

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.42

Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 41

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 41

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Sam Howell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kyric McGowan

2nd & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.02

Jeff Sims run for 38 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jeff Sims run for 1 yd for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction, declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 4 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 6Rush-9 ydsPPA -1.10

Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Tucker) to the NCaro 20

2nd & 15Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.85

Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the NCaro 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 1 yd to the NCaro 34

4th & 1Punt+3 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , Kyric McGowan returns for 3 yds to the GTech 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the GTech 24

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.60

Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 16 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.85

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 8 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.63

Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 28 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.24

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 31 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

D.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the GTech 28

2nd & 5Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.63

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 21 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 4 yds to the GTech 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Jeff Sims run for 2 yds to the GTech 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.15

Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 12 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.17

Jeff Sims run for 15 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jeff Sims run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35

4th & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.00

Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 8 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 27 yds for a TD, (Peje' Harris pass to Dylan Leonard for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 8 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.26

Sam Howell sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 31

3rd & 18Pass Reception+63 ydsPPA +5.17

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 63 yds to the GTech 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the GTech 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery Simmons

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Howell pass to Cayden Baker for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jeff Sims pass complete to Dontae Smith for 5 yds to the GTech 42

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.87

Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Jeff Sims run for 6 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jahmyr Gibbs run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34

2nd & 5Rush+29 ydsPPA +1.17

Jordan Mason run for 29 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Jordan Mason run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 4

3rd & 4Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.60

Jeff Sims pass complete to Dontae Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 8

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 13

4th & 13Field Goal Good+31 yds

Brent Cimaglia 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-9 yds

Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Downs, Josh, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Morales, Kamari) 9 yards to the UNC10, NO PLAY.

1st & 19Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.86

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 14 yds to the NCaro 24

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.60

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 16 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.35

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery Simmons

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.61

Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett Walston

2nd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.47

Sam Howell sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 47 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by GTech Charlie Thomas , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +4.51

Jeff Sims run for 50 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery Simmons

3rd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.23

Sam Howell sacked by Charlie Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20

4th & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.36

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 22

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
45%
11 plays
40%
10 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Georgia Tech

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
36%
25 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
75%
8 plays
60%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play