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← Back to GamesSep 18, 2021Week 3
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wake Forest by 14.5

Home Win Probability

Wake Forest 84%

Market (consensus)

Wake Forest -4.5

Edge: Wake Forest -4.5 (10.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 18, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Florida StateFlorida State
770014
Wake ForestWake Forest
14138035

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-727-1435-14
Wake ForestFlorida State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WFFSWFFSWFFSWFFSWFFSWFFSWFFSWFFSFSWFFSWFFSWFFSWFFSWFTO414ydTO213ydTD363ydPUNT3-1ydTO841ydPUNT36ydTD865ydTD775ydTD1275ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-10ydTO317ydFG614ydTD165ydFG1071ydTO323ydPUNT515ydTD1490ydDOWNS860ydPUNT3-1ydTO1168ydDOWNS839ydTO10ydPUNT47ydTO10ydEND821yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Florida State and Wake Forest
StatisticFlorida StateWake Forest
Passing16-2222-31
Pass Yards226259
Rush Yards91225
Total Yards317484
Turnovers62
3rd Down1-68-18
Penalties7-658-74
Possession20:4739:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Florida State
passing
McKenzie Milton
11/16, 119 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Treshaun Ward
6 CAR, 48 YDS
receiving
Ontaria Wilson
3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Wake Forest
passing
Sam Hartman
22/31, 259 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Christian Beal-Smith
19 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
A.T. Perry
7 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 4 yds to the WFrst 29

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39

2nd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.44

Sam Hartman pass intercepted Sidney Williams return for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 6 yds to the WFrst 44

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the WFrst 37 Jashaun Corbin fumbled, forced by Luke Masterson, recovered by WFrst

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 38

2nd & 9Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.16

Christian Beal-Smith run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 49 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 27

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Travis sacked by Chelen Garnes for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 35 yds , Taylor Morin returns for no gain to the WFrst 41

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Justice Ellison run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 39

2nd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.64

Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.59

Sam Hartman run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 35

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.41

Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 13 yds Jaquarii Roberson fumbled, forced by Jammie Robinson, recovered by FlaSt

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Treshaun Ward run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.52

Treshaun Ward run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 24

3rd & 13Punt+3 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 3 yds to the WFrst 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 41

2nd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.67

Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 38

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

4th & 7Penalty+15 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 48

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Sam Hartman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 45

2nd & 8Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.56

Sam Hartman run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.58

Christian Turner run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 4

2nd & 4Penalty+2 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the FlaSt 2

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.10

Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Jordan Travis pass complete to Darion Williamson for 10 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the WFrst 39

3rd & 6Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.13

Treshaun Ward run for 22 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (9 Yards) to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 6 yds to the WFrst 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.02

Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 12 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 49

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 49

3rd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.75

Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 20 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.06

Sam Hartman sacked by Amari Gainer for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 34

2nd & 13Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Christian Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 35

3rd & 14Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.51

Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (14 Yards) to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 10

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 6

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 11

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.96

Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

Lawrance Toafili run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 17

3rd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.15

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 15

4th & 10Punt+17 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 41 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 17 yds to the FlaSt 39

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the WFrst 46

1st & 25Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

3rd & 16Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.91

Sam Hartman sacked by Derrick McLendon II for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 49

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Ivan Mora punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.07

Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 26 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.46

Jordan Travis sacked by Miles Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 34

2nd & 19Pass Interception Return+14 ydsPPA -0.07

McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Nasir Greer return for 14 yds to the FlaSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 7 yds to the FlaSt 31

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 41

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 38

3rd & 10Penalty+10 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the FlaSt 24

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+42 yds

Nick Sciba 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +5.24

Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 65 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 1 yd to the WFrst 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 8 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.45

Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 44 yds to the FlaSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 11

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 8

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald Stewart

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Nick Sciba 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 48

2nd & 2Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.26

Jordan Travis pass intercepted Caelen Carson return for no gain to the WFrst 6

0th & 2End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.85

Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the WFrst 44

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jordan Travis run for 4 yds to the WFrst 40

3rd & 2Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.84

Jordan Travis sacked by Jacorey Johns for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.58

Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 13 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.16

Christian Beal-Smith run for 14 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the WFrst 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.62

Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 4 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST down

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

Hartman, Sam pass complete to Turner, Christian for loss of 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST48, PENALTY FLORIDAST substitution infraction 5 yards to the FLORIDAST47, NO PLAY.

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.17

Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.84

Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 10 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.41

Justice Ellison run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (S. Hartman Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.37

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.47

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 20 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.27

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 19 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 7 yds to the WFrst 12

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the WFrst 11

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the WFrst 11

4th & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -3.94

McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 13

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 13

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 17

3rd & 5Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.27

Sam Hartman sacked by Derrick McLendon II for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 12

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ivan Mora punt for 57 yds, downed at the FlaSt 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria Wilson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.13

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 13 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.96

Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the WFrst 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.89

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 10 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the WFrst 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.69

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 12 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for 8 yds to the WFrst 10

2nd & 2Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.68

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 12

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.88

McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 11 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

McKenzie Milton run for no gain McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by WFrst

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 14 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Sam Hartman pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Christian Beal-Smith run for 7 yds to the WFrst 41

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.11

Christian Beal-Smith run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -2.05

Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 41

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.34

McKenzie Milton pass intercepted Traveon Redd return for no gain to the WFrst 15

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 16

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.33

Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 22 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 12

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Christian Turner run for 5 yds to the WFrst 17

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the WFrst 22

4th & 3Punt-4 yds

Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 35

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the FlaSt 35 McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by WFrst

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 32

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Christian Turner run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 17

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 13

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.55

Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 12

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.52

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 14

Situational Analysis

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
27 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
8 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Wake Forest

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
33 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
20%
10 plays
50%
14 plays
29%
7 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays