Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 9, 2021Week 6

House Prediction

Model Margin

Liberty by 26.1

Home Win Probability

Liberty 94%

Market (consensus)

Liberty -20

Edge: Liberty -20 (6.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 9, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee
076013
LibertyLiberty
141010741

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-021-724-726-734-1341-13
LibertyMiddle Tennessee

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MTLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTLIBLIBLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTLIBMTDOWNS620ydTD345ydPUNT622ydTO312ydTO10ydPUNT618ydPUNT313ydTD684ydPUNT827ydTD1180ydTD984ydFG1074ydEND4-13ydPUNT37ydSAF3-12ydTO20ydDOWNS628ydTO10ydTD431ydTD867ydPUNT515ydPUNT6-2ydDOWNS630ydTD748ydPUNT410ydPUNT31ydEND27yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Middle Tennessee and Liberty
StatisticMiddle TennesseeLiberty
Passing22-4217-30
Pass Yards230222
Rush Yards35227
Total Yards265449
Turnovers23
3rd Down4-146-12
Penalties5-377-62
Possession24:4135:19

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Middle Tennessee
passing
Chase Cunningham
22/42, 230 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Chaton Mobley
4 CAR, 8 YDS
receiving
Jimmy Marshall
7 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Liberty
passing
Malik Willis
17/30, 222 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Josh Mack
14 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Demario Douglas
6 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Chase Cunningham run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 45

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 45

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY LIB False Start (Schultz,Tristan) 5 yards from MTS45 to MTS50. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47

2nd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.96

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 12 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +2.97

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 35 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-Chisolm

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.99

Chase Cunningham pass complete to CJ Windham for 10 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.41

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to CJ Windham

3rd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Mobley,Chaton rush for 3 yards gain to the LIB49 (James,Elijah; Chibueze,Henry) PENALTY MTS Holding (Palmer,Jordan) 10 yards from MTS48 to MTS38. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the MTnSt 47

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the Liber 19

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.18

Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 5 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.85

Malik Willis pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Formation (Richard Kinley) declined

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 16

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the Liber 24

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.02

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 5 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 30

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 37

3rd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +1.18

Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the Liber 35

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the MTnSt 24

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah Gathings

4th & 7Punt+26 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 26 yds to the Liber 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.63

Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 22 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Liber 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +2.27

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 41 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 11

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.61

Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

DJ England-Chisolm run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MTS False Start (Marshall,Jimmy) 5 yards from MTS30 to MTS25. NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Chase Cunningham run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to CJ Windham

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.55

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 11 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.07

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Chaton Mobley for no gain to the Liber 48

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Chaton Mobley

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Malik Willis pass incomplete to T.J. Green

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.34

Malik Willis pass complete to T.J. Green for 11 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the Liber 38

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Liber 40

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.64

Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43

2nd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.09

T.J. Green run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.65

Malik Willis run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

T.J. Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+30 yds

Alex Barbir kickoff for 63 yds , Jaylin Lane return for 30 yds to the MTnSt 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 17

2nd & 9Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.42

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 37 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the Liber 42

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Brad Anderson

3rd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.07

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 19 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the Liber 20

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 4 yds to the Liber 16

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 10 yds to the Liber 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Scott Payne kickoff for 65 yds , Shedro Louis return for 29 yds to the Liber 7

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario Douglas

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.98

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 14 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+49 ydsPPA +3.52

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 49 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny Huntley

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.80

Malik Willis run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa

2nd & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.73

Malik Willis sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 19

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario Douglas

4th & 13Field Goal Good+37 yds

Brayden Beck 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Alex Barbir kickoff for 37 yds , Frank Peasant return for 7 yds to the MTnSt 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny Huntley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario Douglas

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MTnSt 41

3rd & 16Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.30

Malik Willis sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 48

0th & 16End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Scott Payne kickoff for 62 yds , Shedro Louis return for 24 yds to the Liber 27

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 33

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 34

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario Douglas

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Max Morgan punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 11

2nd & 11Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.19

Chase Cunningham sacked by Ahmad Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 8

3rd & 14Safety0 ydsPPA -1.65

Henry Chibueze Safety

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.04

Malik Willis pass intercepted

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.46

Chase Cunningham sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 34

2nd & 19Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.87

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Penalty+15 yds

Cunningham,Chase pass incomplete to Ali,Yusuf PENALTY LIB Roughing The Passer (Clark,TreShaun) 15 yards from LIB50 to LIB35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Brad Anderson run for no gain to the Liber 35

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-Chisolm

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the Liber 29

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.69

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah Gathings

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.22

Malik Willis pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.80

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Chaton Mobley for no gain to the Liber 31

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to CJ Windham

4th & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +5.22

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Scott Payne kickoff for 52 yds , T.J. Green return for 20 yds to the Liber 33

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 40

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.27

Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.62

Joshua Mack run for 26 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26

3rd & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.86

Malik Willis run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Shedro Louis run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Joshua Mack 2 Yd Run (Malik Willis Pass to Brody Brumm for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Alex Barbir kickoff for 60 yds , Jaylin Lane return for 28 yds to the MTnSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 8 yds to the MTnSt 41

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Martell Pettaway run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Martell Pettaway run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40

2nd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 8 yds to the MTnSt 48

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali

4th & 6Punt+8 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 19 , Demario Douglas returns for 8 yds to the Liber 19

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Liber 25

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 1 yd to the Liber 26

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 33

2nd & 13Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.42

Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for no gain to the Liber 33

3rd & 13Penalty-10 yds

Willis,Malik rush for 24 yards gain to the MTS43 (Hartley,Raquon), out of bounds PENALTY LIB Holding (Louis,Shedro) 10 yards from LIB33 to LIB23. NO PLAY.

3rd & 23Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.05

Malik Willis sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 17

4th & 29Punt+9 yds

Max Morgan punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 9 yds to the MTnSt 18

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Chase Cunningham run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26

2nd & 2Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.81

Chase Cunningham pass complete to CJ Windham for 23 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Chase Cunningham pass complete to CJ Windham for 1 yd to the MTnSt 48

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Chaton Mobley

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Chaton Mobley

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.67

Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 29

2nd & 2Rush+25 ydsPPA +0.77

Joshua Mack run for 25 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Malik Willis 1 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah Gathings

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Frank Boyd run for 1 yd to the Liber 32

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Russian Williams run for 3 yds to the Liber 35

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Tyron Staples run for no gain to the Liber 35

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY LIB Delay Of Game 5 yards from LIB35 to LIB30. NO PLAY.

4th & 11Punt+15 yds

Max Morgan punt for 62 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 15 yds to the MTnSt 2

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Mike DiLiello run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 4

2nd & 8Penalty0 yds

PENALTY LIB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting MTS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Martell Pettaway run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 9

Situational Analysis

Middle Tennessee

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
27%
22 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
27%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
53%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
40%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
4th