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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Charlotte by 1

Home Win Probability

Illinois 45%

Market (consensus)

Illinois -10.5

Edge: Charlotte +10.5 (11.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
CharlotteCharlotte
770014
IllinoisIllinois
3714024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-710-710-1417-1424-14
IllinoisCharlotte

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ILLCHAILLCHAILLCHAILLCHAILLCHAILLCHAILLCHAILLCHAILLFG1764ydTD1075ydPUNT516ydTO112ydTO720ydPUNT419ydTD1265ydTD666ydEND2-2ydPUNT629ydTD1094ydFG1463ydTD180ydTO43ydFG4-4ydPUNT64ydEND1351yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Charlotte and Illinois
StatisticCharlotteIllinois
Passing17-2310-19
Pass Yards19178
Rush Yards72336
Total Yards263414
Turnovers21
3rd Down4-98-14
Penalties5-477-85
Possession25:5734:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Charlotte
passing
Chris Reynolds
17/23, 191 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Calvin Camp
7 CAR, 29 YDS
receiving
Grant DuBose
4 REC, 70 YDS
defense
Illinois
passing
Brandon Peters
10/19, 78 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Chase Brown
26 CAR, 257 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Isaiah Williams
3 REC, 24 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Brandon Peters run for 8 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Carlos Sandy

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.45

Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Charl 45

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Isaiah Williams run for 6 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Luke Ford

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Charl 36

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.60

Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Charl 22

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Joshua McCray run for 8 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Charl 12

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Charl 11

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel Barker

4th & 7Field Goal Good+29 yds

James McCourt 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the Charl 26

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Shadrick Byrd run for 6 yds to the Charl 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.51

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Keith Pearson for 6 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 9 yds to the Charl 47

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.18

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 4 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tarique Barnes) to the Illin 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Calvin Camp run for 8 yds to the Illin 26

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Calvin Camp run for 1 yd to the Illin 25

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.27

Calvin Camp run for 3 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.65

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 22 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 31

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 38

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 2 yds to the Illin 41

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 20

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 12 yds Grant DuBose fumbled, forced by Sydney Brown, recovered by Illin Kerby Joseph

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Charl 29

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.51

Joshua McCray run for 15 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Charl 11

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Luke Ford) to the Charl 19

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Jakari Norwood run for 1 yd to the Charl 20

3rd & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Brandon Peters run for 1 yd to the Charl 19 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Jonathan Alexander) to the Charl 9

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -4.18

Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Charl 7 Joshua McCray fumbled, forced by Justin Whisenhunt, recovered by Charl Joshua Bailey

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Kerby Joseph) to the Charl 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Grant DuBose

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Calvin Camp run for 2 yds to the Charl 31

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.42

Chris Reynolds sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 26

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Bailey Rice punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Luke Ford

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.57

Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 17 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Charl 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds to the Charl 39

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.81

Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Charl 33

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Brandon Peters pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.63

Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 8 yds to the Charl 25

4th & 2Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the Charl 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Charl 10

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Luke Ford

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.99

Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 10 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Chris Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Charl 35 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (Shadrick Byrd) to the Charl 16

1st & 19Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.92

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 13 yds to the Charl 29

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.34

Chris Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Shadrick Byrd run for no gain to the Charl 39

2nd & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.22

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 34 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 27 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Illin 19

1st & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 23

0th & 16End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 7 yds to the Charl 32

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Calvin Camp run for 7 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.44

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 17 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 2 yds to the Illin 42

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Chris Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Illin 46

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to ChaVon McEachern

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Bailey Rice punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 11

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.25

Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey Washington

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 17

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Deuce Spann

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.59

Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.22

Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 13 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.08

Chase Brown run for 20 yds to the Charl 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Chase Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Chris Reynolds run for 7 yds to the Charl 32

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Khalan Tolson) to the Charl 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 7 yds to the Illin 44

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Shadrick Byrd run for 2 yds to the Illin 42

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.82

Shadrick Byrd run for 3 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Shadrick Byrd

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.29

Chris Reynolds run for 16 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Taylor Thompson

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Calvin Camp run for 6 yds to the Illin 17

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 7 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Calvin Camp run for 2 yds to the Illin 8

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the Illin 12

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Ryan Carriere

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+39 yds

Jonathan Cruz 39 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.39

Chase Brown run for 80 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) (James McCourt KICK) (James McCourt KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-13 yds

CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-13 Yards) to the Charl 21

1st & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Chris Reynolds run for 1 yd to the Charl 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Calvin Camp for 6 yds to the Charl 28

3rd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -0.07

Chris Reynolds pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Brown,Chase rush for 5 yards gain to the CLT23 (Martin,Luke) PENALTY ILL Holding 10 yards from CLT28 to CLT38. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Charl 32

2nd & 14Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 1 yd to the Charl 33

3rd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.78

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Charl 32

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+50 yds

James McCourt 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 9 yds to the Charl 41

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.04

Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Chris Reynolds run for 12 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the Illin 38

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Byrd,Shadrick rush for 6 yards gain to the ILL32 (Brown,Sydney) PENALTY CLT Holding (Kelly,Hunter) 10 yards from ILL38 to ILL48. NO PLAY.

2nd & 16Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.59

Chris Reynolds sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 44

3rd & 24Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.26

Chris Reynolds sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 36

4th & 32Punt0 yds

Bailey Rice punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 26

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 29

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 31

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.65

Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 42

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jakari Norwood run for 4 yds to the Illin 38

3rd & 9Rush+17 ydsPPA +3.19

Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Charl 44

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Charl 39

3rd & 4Penalty-15 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Charl 45

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Joshua McCray run for 7 yds to the Charl 38

4th & 3Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.42

Brandon Peters run for 8 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Markees Watts) to the Charl 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 22

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 23

Situational Analysis

Charlotte

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
20 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
100%
1 play
57%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
4th

Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
25 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
40%
15 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
80%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays