Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 26, 2021Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 2.6

Home Win Probability

Air Force 57%

Market (consensus)

Air Force -3.5

Edge: Florida Atlantic +3.5 (0.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 26, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic
07007
Air ForceAir Force
14107031

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-021-024-024-731-7
Air ForceFlorida Atlantic

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFFAAFPUNT3-7ydTD868ydPUNT731ydTD194ydPUNT38ydTD1482ydPUNT3-2ydFG950ydTD474ydFG1271ydEND14ydPUNT32ydPUNT823ydTD1297ydDOWNS833ydDOWNS519ydPUNT30ydPUNT928ydTO619ydDOWNS49ydDOWNS7-4ydEND3-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Florida Atlantic and Air Force
StatisticFlorida AtlanticAir Force
Passing11-332-5
Pass Yards7870
Rush Yards141446
Total Yards219516
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-143-14
Penalties4-403-15
Possession19:0340:57

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Florida Atlantic
passing
N'Kosi Perry
11/33, 78 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Johnny Ford
8 CAR, 66 YDS
receiving
Je'Quan Burton
2 REC, 28 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
2/4, 70 YDS
rushing
Haaziq Daniels
17 CAR, 164 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Brandon Lewis
1 REC, 46 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY FAU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FAU25 to FAU20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 18

3rd & 17Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.05

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for no gain to the FlAtl 18

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.20

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis

3rd & 6Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.12

Haaziq Daniels run for 31 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Patterson,Kyle) 5 yards from FAU22 to FAU27. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Micah Davis run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 23

2nd & 11Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.46

Micah Davis run for 19 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Johnny Ford run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 33

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Ford,Johnny rush for 7 yards gain to the FAU40 (Bugg III,Tre), out of bounds PENALTY FAU Illegal Formation 5 yards from FAU33 to FAU28. NO PLAY.

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 9 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.02

N'Kosi Perry run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the AFA 44

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+94 ydsPPA +6.90

Haaziq Daniels run for 94 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Malcolm Davidson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Malcolm Davidson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to John Mitchell

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 18

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 26

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.78

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 27 run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.23

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Hughes,DeAndre) 5 yards from AF 38 to AF 33. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Micah Davis run for 5 yds to the AFA 38

4th & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.54

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 49

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.06

Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 31

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.39

Omar Fattah run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 24

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.89

Brad Roberts run for 24 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-11 ydsPPA -1.24

N'Kosi Perry sacked by Trey Taylor for a loss of 11 yards to the FlAtl 14 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by FlAtl N'Kosi Perry , return for 0 yards

2nd & 21Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.11

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the FlAtl 23

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon Robinson

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 36

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 48

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.71

Micah Davis run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 20

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 17

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 14

4th & 2Field Goal Good+31 yds

Anthony Rodriguez 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.71

Johnny Ford run for 32 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.50

N'Kosi Perry run for 34 yds for a TD (Aaron Shahriari KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Micah Davis run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Micah Davis run for 5 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 47

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Micah Davis run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.90

Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.76

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 24 yds to the FlAtl 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 7

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+22 yds

Anthony Rodriguez 22 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

James Charles run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis

4th & 8Punt+4 yds

Charles Bein punt for 43 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 34

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.39

N'Kosi Perry run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Malcolm Davidson run for 6 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.45

N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Johnny Ford run for no gain to the AFA 40

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon Robinson

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds to the AFA 43

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 8

2nd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.62

Dane Kinamon run for 14 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 31

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.47

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +2.80

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 46 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 16

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 8

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 6

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Micah Davis run for 6 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zaire Mitchell-Paden for 5 yds to the FlAtl 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.05

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 14 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.24

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 14 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon Robinson

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Willie Wright

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Micah Davis run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 41

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Micah Davis run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 35

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -2.49

Dane Kinamon run for no gain to the FlAtl 34

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to James Charles

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Matt Hayball punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 21

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Dane Kinamon run for 2 yds to the AFA 23

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 28

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.46

Jorden Gidrey run for 4 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.82

Omar Fattah run for 10 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Booth,Ryan) 5 yards from FAU49 to AF 46. NO PLAY.

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the AFA 47

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Charles Bein punt for 43 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to TJ Chase for 5 yds to the FlAtl 15

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Malcolm Davidson

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.90

N'Kosi Perry run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Zaire Mitchell-Paden

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to TJ Chase for 6 yds to the FlAtl 29

3rd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -0.30

N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Amari Terry run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the AFA 39

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Warren Bryan run for 1 yd to the AFA 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Johnny Ford run for no gain to the AFA 33

3rd & 3Rush+34 yds

Johnny Ford run for 19 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Willie Wright

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Willie Wright

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to James Charles

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.97

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon Robinson

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.95

run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 28

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27

3rd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.18

run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 25

Situational Analysis

Florida Atlantic

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
37%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
60%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
48%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
50%
12 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
67%
6 plays