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← Back to GamesNov 20, 2021Week 12

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 25.6

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 92%

Market (consensus)

Mississippi State -44

Edge: Tennessee State +44 (18.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 20, 2021

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Tennessee State
0001010
Mississippi StateMississippi State
211414655

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-028-035-042-049-052-352-1055-10
Mississippi StateTennessee State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSMSTSPUNT30ydTD560ydPUNT3-15ydTD631ydPUNT3-1ydTD658ydPUNT520ydTO112ydPUNT89ydTD686ydDOWNS928ydTD453ydEND212ydDOWNS521ydPUNT34ydTD589ydPUNT722ydTD685ydTO668ydTO310ydFG44ydFG1155ydTD870ydFG540ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Tennessee State and Mississippi State
StatisticTennessee StateMississippi State
Passing19-2736-46
Pass Yards170493
Rush Yards35107
Total Yards205600
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-145-10
Penalties4-253-29
Possession35:2024:40

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Tennessee State
passing
Deveon Bryant
9/11, 128 YDS
rushing
Devon Starling
11 CAR, 33 YDS
receiving
Cam Wyche
4 REC, 88 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
28/34, 391 YDS, 5 TD
rushing
Dillon Johnson
5 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Makai Polk
9 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Devon Starling for 1 yd to the TenSt 34

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Devon Starling run for 1 yd to the TenSt 35

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Chayil Garnett pass incomplete to Devon Starling

4th & 10Punt+15 yds

Kaleb Mosley punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 40 , Jaden Walley returns for 15 yds to the MisSt 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 6Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 31 yds to the TenSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the TenSt 21

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.74

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Devon Starling run for 2 yds to the TenSt 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Devon Starling for 1 yd to the TenSt 22

3rd & 13Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.16

Chayil Garnett sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 12 yards to the TenSt 10

4th & 25Punt+29 yds

Kaleb Mosley punt for 50 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 29 yds to the TenSt 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the TenSt 24

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.12

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the TenSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the TenSt 15

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.43

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 8 yds to the TenSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Rodell Rahmaan for 1 yd to the TenSt 23

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jalen Rouse run for 3 yds to the TenSt 26

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.28

Chayil Garnett sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 3 yards to the TenSt 23

4th & 11Punt+4 yds

Kaleb Mosley punt for 39 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 1 yd to the MisSt 41

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 12 yds to the TenSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.80

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 17 yds to the TenSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the TenSt 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.49

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 25 yds to the TenSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Micha Mitchell run for 5 yds to the TenSt 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.73

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Cam Wyche for 10 yds to the TenSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Chayil Garnett sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 1 yard to the TenSt 26

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Chayil Garnett pass incomplete to Rodell Rahmaan

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Rodell Rahmaan for 6 yds to the TenSt 32

4th & 5Punt+25 yds

Kaleb Mosley punt for 49 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 25 yds to the MisSt 44

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY TSU Offside (Baez,Emmanuel) 5 yards from MSU44 to MSU49. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds Makai Polk fumbled, forced by Cameron Stewart, recovered by TenSt James Green

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Devon Starling run for 5 yds to the TenSt 49

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.78

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Dayron Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Devon Starling run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Chayil Garnett pass incomplete to Josh Trueheart

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.56

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Dayron Johnson for 9 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Devon Starling run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.74

Devon Starling run for no gain to the MisSt 30

3rd & 9Penalty-17 yds

TENNESSEE ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-17 Yards) to the MisSt 47

4th & 26Punt0 yds

Kaleb Mosley punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 14

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.51

Jo'quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 6 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb Ducking

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+56 ydsPPA +5.77

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 56 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Micha Mitchell run for 2 yds to the TenSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Micha Mitchell run for 4 yds to the TenSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Micha Mitchell for 5 yds to the TenSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Micha Mitchell run for 5 yds to the TenSt 41

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Micha Mitchell run for 2 yds to the TenSt 39

3rd & 7Penalty+9 yds

Garnett,Chayil pass incomplete to Wyche,Cam broken up by Emerson,Martin, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Emerson,Martin) 9 yards from TSU39 to TSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Chayil Garnett pass incomplete to Dayron Johnson

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Chayil Garnett run for no gain to the TenSt 48

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Dayron Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 47

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Chayil Garnett pass incomplete to Devon Starling

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus Harvey

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the TenSt 44

3rd & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Dillon Johnson run for 14 yds to the TenSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 30 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Devon Starling run for 6 yds to the TenSt 25

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.55

Devon Starling run for 6 yds to the TenSt 31 for a 1ST down

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 2 yds to the TenSt 48

4th & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.94

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the TenSt 45

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Devon Starling run for no gain to the TenSt 45

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Chayil Garnett pass incomplete to Josh Trueheart

3rd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chayil Garnett pass complete to Devon Starling for 4 yds to the TenSt 49

4th & 6Punt+2 yds

Kaleb Mosley punt for 42 yds , Austin Williams returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.69

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 14 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

3rd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.77

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +3.84

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 50 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Micha Mitchell run for 5 yds to the TenSt 32

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.88

Micha Mitchell run for 6 yds to the TenSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Rodell Rahmaan for 2 yds to the TenSt 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.70

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Dayron Johnson for 9 yds to the TenSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Cam Wyche for 3 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Deveon Bryant pass incomplete to Gerand Turner

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Bryant,Deveon rush for 8 yards gain to the MSU40 (Page,DeShawn) PENALTY TSU Holding (Page,Chazan) 10 yards from MSU48 to TSU42. NO PLAY.

3rd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Devon Starling for 7 yds to the TenSt 49

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kaleb Mosley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 24

3rd & 1Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.43

Jo'quavious Marks run for 22 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.94

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 13 yds to the TenSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the TenSt 32

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.38

Dillon Johnson run for 32 yds for a TD (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Devon Starling run for 9 yds to the TenSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Micha Mitchell run for 3 yds to the TenSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Zaire Thornton for 6 yds to the TenSt 43

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Micha Mitchell run for 1 yd to the TenSt 42

3rd & 5Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +4.59

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Cam Wyche for 55 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -5.54

Deveon Bryant run for 4 yds to the MisSt 19 Deveon Bryant fumbled, forced by Dylan Lawrence, recovered by MisSt Jett Johnson

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 8 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Omni Wells

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -0.40

J.J. Jernighan run for 2 yds to the MisSt 29 J.J. Jernighan fumbled, forced by James Green, recovered by TenSt Cory Rahman

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Zaire Thornton for 8 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Deveon Bryant run for 1 yd to the MisSt 20

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.20

Micha Mitchell run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25

4th & 6Field Goal Good+43 yds

James Lowery 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Brodie King

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Chance Lovertich pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 7 yds to the MisSt 37

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Chance Lovertich run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.50

J.J. Jernighan run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Teddy Knox

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MSU False Start (Jones,Nick) 5 yards from MSU47 to MSU42. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.28

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Carson Banks for 23 yds to the TenSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.31

Chance Lovertich pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 12 yds to the TenSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Chance Lovertich pass incomplete to Rufus Harvey

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the TenSt 16

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Chance Lovertich run for 1 yd to the TenSt 15

4th & 2Field Goal Good+33 yds

Nolan McCord 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.68

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Zaire Thornton for 18 yds to the TenSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Deveon Bryant run for 4 yds to the MisSt 48

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Devon Starling run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.11

Deveon Bryant pass complete to Cam Wyche for 20 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Deveon Bryant pass incomplete to Josh Trueheart

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Bryant,Deveon pass incomplete to Dobson,Zack broken up by Ellington,Corey PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Ellington,Corey) 15 yards from MSU26 to MSU11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Deveon Bryant run for 4 yds to the MisSt 7

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Deveon Bryant run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.71

Micha Mitchell run for 5 yds for a TD (James Lowery KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +2.54

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Omni Wells for 40 yds to the TenSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.45

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Brodie King for no gain to the TenSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Brodie King for 5 yds to the TenSt 20

3rd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.54

run for a loss of 5 yards to the TenSt 25

4th & 10Field Goal Good+43 yds

Nolan McCord 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

run for a loss of 2 yards to the TenSt 33

Situational Analysis

Tennessee State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
42%
24 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
44%
9 plays
17%
6 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
100%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
54%
28 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
88%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play