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← Back to GamesOct 30, 2021Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 0.3

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 52%

Market (consensus)

Mississippi State -1

Edge: Kentucky +1 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 30, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
730717
Mississippi StateMississippi State
01417031

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-107-1014-1017-1031-17
Mississippi StateKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENMSMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSTO735ydTD723ydMISS846ydFG1448ydTD875ydPUNT37ydTD975ydPUNT39ydPUNT32ydTO538ydEND11ydFG1466ydTO2-3ydTD322ydTO10ydTD324ydTD1075ydPUNT849ydPUNT412ydEND1255yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Mississippi State
StatisticKentuckyMississippi State
Passing17-2836-39
Pass Yards150344
Rush Yards6694
Total Yards216438
Turnovers40
3rd Down6-117-12
Penalties6-6811-88
Possession18:5041:10

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Will Levis
17/28, 150 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
8 CAR, 34 YDS
receiving
Wan'Dale Robinson
9 REC, 79 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
36/39, 344 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jo'quavious Marks
20 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaden Walley
6 REC, 95 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Scott Goodman kickoff for 61 yds , Zach Johnson return for 16 yds to the Kent 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 4 yds to the Kent 24

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 26

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.20

Will Levis run for 5 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 4 yds to the Kent 37

3rd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.81

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Martin Emerson) to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.52

Will Levis pass intercepted Shawn Preston Jr. return for no gain to the MisSt 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 11

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.43

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.84

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.25

Will Rogers sacked by Josaih Hayes and # for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 29

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks, broken up by #

4th & 11Punt+74 yds

Tucker Day punt for 45 yds , Josh Ali returns for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.44

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.66

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 29 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 22

2nd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.64

Will Rogers sacked by Vito Tisdale and # for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 29

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk, broken up by #

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Brandon Ruiz 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Kent 34

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.92

Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 39

2nd & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.53

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 15 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 46

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 8 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 25

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.24

Will Levis run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 1 yd to the MisSt 23

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Will Levis pass incomplete to Isaiah Epps

4th & 9Field Goal Good+41 yds

Matt Ruffolo 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.75

Jo'quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Justin Rogers) to the Kent 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 14 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the Kent 35

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Kent 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 22

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.39

Jo'quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Kent 5

2nd & 3Penalty+3 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Quandre Mosely) to the Kent 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the Kent 7

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 15Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Scott Goodman kickoff for 57 yds , Zach Johnson return for 18 yds to the Kent 26

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 29

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Wan'Dale Robinson run for 4 yds to the Kent 33

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh Ali

4th & 3Punt+11 yds

Colin Goodfellow punt for 53 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 11 yds to the MisSt 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Dillon Johnson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the Kent 47

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the Kent 36

2nd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.26

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 17 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds to the Kent 10

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the Kent 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Scott Goodman kickoff for 63 yds , Zach Johnson return for 16 yds to the Kent 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 5 yds to the Kent 23

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Will Levis pass incomplete to Justin Rigg

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Will Levis pass complete to Josh Ali for 4 yds to the Kent 27

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Colin Goodfellow punt for 70 yds, downed at the MisSt 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5

2nd & 8Penalty-2 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (LaQuinston Sharp) to the MisSt 3

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.13

Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 5

4th & 8Punt+3 yds

Tucker Day punt for 50 yds , Wan'Dale Robinson returns for 3 yds to the Kent 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.82

Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 12 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 5 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Will Levis pass incomplete to Josh Ali

3rd & 5Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.42

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 21 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.45

Will Levis pass intercepted Jalen Green return for no gain to the MisSt 1

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.64

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Malik Heath) to the MisSt 38

1st & 15Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Charles Cross) to the MisSt 28

1st & 25Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.27

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 17Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 22 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Kent 38

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Kent 34

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.76

Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin, broken up by #

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.72

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Yusuf Corker) to the Kent 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kameron Jones) to the Kent 20

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the Kent 25

1st & 0Pass Reception-3 yds

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 28

2nd & 0Pass Reception+23 yds

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 23 yds to the Kent 5

3rd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.64

Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 9

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Brandon Ruiz 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 26

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -0.33

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 22 Chris Rodriguez Jr. fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jett Johnson

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 24

2nd & 12Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.31

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 23 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -0.92

Will Levis pass intercepted Cameron Young return for 5 yds to the Kent 24

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Kent 19

3rd & 5Penalty-6 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the Kent 25

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.85

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 25 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 7 yds to the Kent 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Kent 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Will Levis run for 3 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.57

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 18 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 11 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Dotson) to the MisSt 38

1st & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 12Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.77

Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 13 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 17 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Chance Poore kickoff for 55 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for no gain to the MisSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 39

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Cedrick Dort Jr.) to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 47

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the Kent 41

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.08

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the Kent 41

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 16 yds, downed at the Kent 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Will Levis pass incomplete to Kavosiey Smoke

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Will Levis pass incomplete to Wan'Dale Robinson

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Colin Goodfellow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaden Walley at the MisSt 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.42

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Omni Wells for 3 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.00

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 48

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.91

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 11 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Kent 39

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Kent 35

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (#) to the Kent 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 25

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Kent 23

2nd & 18Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Kent 20

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
21 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
47%
30 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
60%
10 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th