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← Back to GamesOct 23, 2021Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 15.3

Home Win Probability

Vanderbilt 17%

Market (consensus)

Vanderbilt +20.5

Edge: Vanderbilt +20.5 (5.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 23, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
101471445
VanderbiltVanderbilt
03306

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-103-103-173-246-316-386-446-45
VanderbiltMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSVANMSVANMSVANMSVANMSVANMSVANVANMSVANMSVANMSVANMSVANMSVANTD879ydPUNT33ydFG1455ydFG566ydTO59ydTO10ydTD1060ydPUNT3-5ydTD1150ydPUNT412ydPUNT39ydEND1-10ydPUNT518ydTO32ydFG725ydTD1063ydPUNT3-3ydTD1171ydPUNT45ydPUNT511ydPUNT515ydTD880ydEND39yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Vanderbilt
StatisticMississippi StateVanderbilt
Passing46-6417-25
Pass Yards461146
Rush Yards619
Total Yards522155
Turnovers21
3rd Down10-151-11
Penalties9-705-40
Possession39:0220:58

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
41/57, 384 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Dillon Johnson
7 CAR, 34 YDS
receiving
Jaden Walley
5 REC, 72 YDS
defense
Vanderbilt
passing
Mike Wright
12/17, 122 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Rocko Griffin
7 CAR, 12 YDS
receiving
Devin Boddie Jr.
4 REC, 69 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 23

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.82

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.91

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 21 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Vandy 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.01

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 19 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 3 yds to the Vandy 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.73

Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.53

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 38

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jett Johnson) to the MisSt 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.19

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Vandy 44

2nd & 3Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.50

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers sacked by Brayden DeVault-Smith for 0 yards to the Vandy 41

2nd & 21Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.82

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Vandy 27

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Rogers sacked by Daevion Davis for 0 yards to the Vandy 23

2nd & 20Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the Vandy 18

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 15Field Goal Good+36 yds

Brandon Ruiz 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+61 ydsPPA +3.53

Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 61 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 13

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+27 yds

Joseph Bulovas 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.47

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

ROGERS, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for CALVIN, Jamire thrown to the MSU45. PENALTY MSU Holding on JONES, Kameron enforced 10 yards from the MSU39 to the MSU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 13Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.19

Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 35

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.03

Mike Wright pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jaden Walley pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Will Rogers pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamire Calvin) to the Vandy 48

1st & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.95

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the Vandy 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the Vandy 33

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.47

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 31

2nd & 11Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +3.51

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27

2nd & 8Sack0 ydsPPA -0.48

Mike Wright sacked by Randy Charlton for 0 yards to the Vandy 25

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 20

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Mike Wright run for no gain to the Vandy 20 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Harrison Smith punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the Vandy 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 4 yds to the Vandy 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.74

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the Vandy 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Vandy 30

3rd & 1Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.82

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the Vandy 41

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Vandy 42

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 37

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Harrison Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 24

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 1Punt+24 yds

Tucker Day punt for 56 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Vandy 44

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.16

Mike Wright sacked by Aaron Odom for 0 yards to the Vandy 34

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.74

Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 8 yds to the Vandy 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.35

Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for no gain to the Vandy 43

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 43

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Harrison Smith punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 7

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.27

Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.13

Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 24 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the MisSt 24

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+41 yds

Joseph Bulovas 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.98

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 24 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.81

Will Rogers sacked by Jaylen Mahoney for 0 yards to the Vandy 43

2nd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the Vandy 40

3rd & 11Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.57

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 20 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the Vandy 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.01

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Vandy 28

3rd & 4Sack0 ydsPPA -0.37

Mike Wright sacked by Tyrus Wheat for 0 yards to the Vandy 19

4th & 13Punt+52 yds

Harrison Smith punt for 37 yds, downed at the VANDERBILT 44 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 29

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 11 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 1 yd to the Vandy 43

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.70

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Vandy 24

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA -0.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 5 yds to the Vandy 10

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 5Penalty0 yds

ROGERS, Will pass to the right incomplete dropped by HARVEY, Rufus thrown to the VAN0. PENALTY VAN Roughing the Passer on DEVAULT-SMITH, Brayden enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the VAN10 to the VAN5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Bresnahan) to the Vandy 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.14

Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 7 yds to the Vandy 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 3 yds to the Vandy 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Harrison Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 6 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.53

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the MisSt 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +6.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 59 yds for a TD

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 7 yds to the Vandy 22

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 6 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 2 yds to the Vandy 30

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jeremy Moussa pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Jeremy Moussa pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Harrison Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Chance Lovertich pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Christian Ford for 9 yds to the MisSt 29

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.15

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the MisSt 39

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.22

Chance Lovertich run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.94

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 13 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.58

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 18 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Grant Jackson) to the Vandy 28

1st & 15Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +3.12

Chance Lovertich pass complete to Rara Thomas for 28 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 4 yds to the Vandy 31

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Logan Kyle for 5 yds to the Vandy 36

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Jeremy Moussa pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
53%
34 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
50%
6 plays
58%
12 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
5 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Vanderbilt

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
17 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
6 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th