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← Back to GamesOct 16, 2021Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 12.1

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 22%

Market (consensus)

Mississippi State +17.5

Edge: Mississippi State +17.5 (5.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 16, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
AlabamaAlabama
147141449
Mississippi StateMississippi State
33309

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-73-143-216-219-289-359-429-49
Mississippi StateAlabama

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSALAMSALAMSMSALAMSALAMSALAALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALATO740ydTD665ydFG1249ydPUNT3-5ydTD410ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT515ydPUNT938ydTD1693ydFG956ydEND622ydTD175ydFG1256ydPUNT516ydTO3-1ydTD784ydPUNT31ydTD1060ydPUNT713ydTD675ydTO850ydEND428yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Alabama and Mississippi State
StatisticAlabamaMississippi State
Passing20-2835-55
Pass Yards348300
Rush Yards195-1
Total Yards543299
Turnovers03
3rd Down12-167-16
Penalties6-606-25
Possession29:5330:07

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Alabama
passing
Bryce Young
20/28, 348 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Roydell Williams
11 CAR, 78 YDS
receiving
John Metchie
7 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
35/55, 300 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Dillon Johnson
7 CAR, 24 YDS
receiving
Jaden Walley
6 REC, 64 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+6 ydsPPA -2.42

Will Rogers pass intercepted Josh Jobe return for 6 yds to the Alab 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 5 yds to the Alab 43

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +4.51

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 46 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.09

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Will Rogers pass incomplete to J.J. Jernighan

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.87

Will Rogers run for 11 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds to the Alab 33

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.00

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the Alab 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the Alab 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

4th & 9Field Goal Good+44 yds

Brandon Ruiz 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 46

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Bryce Young pass incomplete to John Metchie III

3rd & 9Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.00

Bryce Young sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 40

4th & 15Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 24

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

3rd & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA +0.53

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+40 ydsPPA -7.92

Will Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Battle return for 40 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers sacked by Byron Young for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 29

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.49

Will Rogers sacked by Christian Harris and Brian Branch for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Alab 44

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.31

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron Latu

3rd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 4 yds to the MisSt 45

4th & 8Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 7

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 16

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.21

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.28

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 16 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 36

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Will Rogers pass incomplete MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.86

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Rogers, Will pass complete to Johnson, Dillon for loss of 3 yards to the MISSSTATE45, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE38, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39

3rd & 19Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 45

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 7

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Bryce Young run for no gain to the Alab 7

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.03

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 17 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 2 yds to the Alab 26

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.70

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 18 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Alab 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Alab 48

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.87

Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 10 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.67

Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 19 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.26

Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 13 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the MisSt 13

2nd & 22Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.92

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 43 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.73

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 20 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the Alab 24

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.57

Jo'quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the Alab 10

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin

3rd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.74

Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 19

4th & 15Field Goal Good+37 yds

Brandon Ruiz 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.28

Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for no gain to the Alab 34

3rd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron Latu

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Roydell Williams

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 47

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 75 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.35

Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Griffin, Lideatrick, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 15 yards to the ALABAMA39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Alab 36

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Christian Ford

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.44

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

3rd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.08

Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 19 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Alab 19

4th & 19Field Goal Good+37 yds

Brandon Ruiz 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Alab 22

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.22

Bryce Young sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 15

2nd & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.03

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the Alab 21

3rd & 14Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.16

Bryce Young run for 9 yds to the Alab 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 29 yds, downed at the MisSt 41

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.08

Will Rogers sacked by Henry To'oTo'o for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 35

2nd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 44

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.96

Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 40

4th & 11Punt+2 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 46 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 16 JoJo Earle fumbled, recovered by Alab

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.89

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 14 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 32

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Slade Bolden

3rd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.58

Bryce Young run for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 49

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel Billingsley

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+51 ydsPPA +5.60

Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 51 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the MisSt 31

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 34 yds, fair catch by JoJo Earle at the Alab 40

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the Alab 47

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.76

Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Williams, Roydell rush for 2 yards to the MISSSTATE37, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal formation 5 yards to the MISSSTATE44, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Bryce Young pass complete to Brian Robinson Jr. for 9 yds to the MisSt 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.17

Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 22 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 13

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron Latu

3rd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.23

Bryce Young run for 12 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.27

Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

3rd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.69

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 43

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 38

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 37 yds, downed at the Alab 25

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.53

Roydell Williams run for 29 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Roydell Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.31

Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.95

Trey Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 29

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +3.75

Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 29 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 2 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.54

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.75

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 24 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 2 yds to the Alab 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the Alab 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.30

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+29 ydsPPA -4.30

Will Rogers pass intercepted Jordan Battle return for 29 yds to the Alab 29

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the Alab 35

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the Alab 38

3rd & 1Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.52

Trey Sanders run for 20 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43

Situational Analysis

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
39%
28 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
67%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
34 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
42%
12 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
100%
2 plays
4th