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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas A&M by 16

Home Win Probability

Texas A&M 81%

Market (consensus)

Texas A&M -7

Edge: Texas A&M -7 (9.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
1077226
Texas A&MTexas A&M
766322

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-37-1010-1013-1013-1713-2419-2422-2422-26
Texas A&MMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTAMSTO2-2ydFG619ydTD565ydTD1275ydFG844ydMISS747ydPUNT38ydPUNT523ydFG1056ydTD575ydPUNT421ydEND25ydPUNT635ydPUNT3-1ydTD1077ydTD1075ydMISS1543ydFG742ydPUNT623ydSAF3-11ydUncategorized50yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Texas A&M
StatisticMississippi StateTexas A&M
Passing46-5912-20
Pass Yards408135
Rush Yards30162
Total Yards438297
Turnovers01
3rd Down3-104-11
Penalties7-658-59
Possession35:0624:54

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
46/59, 408 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Dillon Johnson
6 CAR, 19 YDS
receiving
Makai Polk
13 REC, 126 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Texas A&M
passing
Zach Calzada
12/20, 135 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Isaiah Spiller
16 CAR, 100 YDS
receiving
Jalen Preston
2 REC, 49 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23

2nd & 12Pass Interception Return+12 ydsPPA -0.04

Zach Calzada pass intercepted Fred Peters return for 12 yds to the TexAM 25

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the TexAM 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.62

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the TexAM 6

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the TexAM 6

4th & 4Field Goal Good+24 yds

Nolan McCord 24 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.01

Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for no gain to the TexAM 35

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 44

3rd & 1Rush+44 ydsPPA +2.77

Isaiah Spiller run for 44 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Isaiah Spiller run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.76

Jalen Wydermyer 11 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Seth Small Kick)

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Will Rogers sacked by DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.27

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.15

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the TexAM 41

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Jo'quavious Marks run for 11 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.49

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 22 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the TexAM 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2

3rd & 0Penalty+1 yds

Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY TEXASAM face mask (Jones, Jaylon) 1 yards to the TEXASAM1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the TexAM 1

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Jaden Walley 1 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+31 yds

Tucker Day kickoff for 63 yds , Devon Achane return for 31 yds to the TexAM 33

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Devon Achane run for 10 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.32

Devon Achane run for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the MisSt 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.17

Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 5 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Emmanuel Forbes) to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen Wydermyer

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Zach Calzada run for 4 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.04

Zach Calzada sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 23 Zach Calzada fumbled, forced by Tyrus Wheat, recovered by TexAM

4th & 15Field Goal Good+40 yds

Seth Small 40 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the TexAM 42

2nd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.19

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the TexAM 28

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson, broken up by DeMarvin Leal

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Nolan McCord 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.97

Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the TexAM 36

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.22

Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 36

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias Smith, broken up by Jett Johnson

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Nik Constantinou punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 17

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 38

4th & 2Punt+19 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 47 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 19 yds to the TEXASAM 34 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Illegal Block (Antonio Doyle Jr.) to the TexAM 24

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Isaiah Spiller run for 9 yds to the TexAM 33

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Isaiah Spiller run for 2 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +2.50

Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 38 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.04

Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, recovered by TexAM Isaiah Spiller

2nd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Zach Calzada run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 9 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaiah Spiller run for 3 yds to the MisSt 13

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Ainias Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10

3rd & 4Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.84

Zach Calzada sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 20

4th & 14Field Goal Good+37 yds

Seth Small 37 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 23 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the TexAM 45

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.54

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 23 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Makai Polk 15 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.53

Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 29 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-16 ydsPPA -3.52

TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the TexAM 38

2nd & 26Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.24

Zach Calzada pass complete to Demond Demas for 8 yds to the TexAM 46

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Zach Calzada pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt+5 yds

Nik Constantinou punt for 53 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 5 yds to the TEXASAM 49 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Andre White Jr.) to the MisSt 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.99

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the MisSt 29

1st & 15Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.74

Will Rogers sacked by Micheal Clemons for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 26

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.65

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 16 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.85

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 12 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 1 yd to the TexAM 40

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by Tyreek Chappell

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk, broken up by Leon O'Neal Jr.

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 6

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Isaiah Spiller run for 4 yds to the TexAM 10

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

Isaiah Spiller run for no gain to the TexAM 10

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Jalen Wydermyer

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Demani Richardson) to the TexAM 5

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Nik Constantinou punt for 57 yds , Jaden Walley returns for no gain to the MisSt 5 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (DeShawn Page) to the MisSt 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.10

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 17 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.59

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexAM 44

1st & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 1 yd to the TexAM 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the TexAM 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.40

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 8 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.99

Makai Polk 20 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Zach Calzada pass complete to Devon Achane for 2 yds to the TexAM 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.88

Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 9 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Spiller, Isaiah rush for 5 yards to the TEXASAM44, PENALTY TEXASAM illegal motion (Demas, Demond) 5 yards to the TEXASAM34, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.57

Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Preston for 11 yds to the TexAM 45

2nd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.21

Isaiah Spiller run for 14 yds to the MisSt 41 Isaiah Spiller fumbled, forced by Emmanuel Forbes, recovered by TexAM

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Isaiah Spiller run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.18

Isaiah Spiller run for 5 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Zach Calzada pass complete to Jalen Wydermyer for 6 yds to the MisSt 22

2nd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.94

Devon Achane run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 25

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.50

Zach Calzada 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Rogers, Will pass complete to Polk, Makai for 12 yards to the TEXASAM47, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Johnson, Kwatrivous) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE31, NO PLAY.

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk

3rd & 16Penalty+13 yds

Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (White Jr., Andre) 13 yards to the MISSSTATE44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.16

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for no gain to the MisSt 44

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.99

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the TexAM 40

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath, broken up by Tyreek Chappell

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.47

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 11 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 5 yds to the TexAM 24

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.16

Will Rogers run for 10 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Rogers sacked by DeMarvin Leal for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 15

3rd & 11Penalty-10 yds

Rogers, Will pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the TEXASAM17 (Johnson, Tyree), PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Cross, Charles) 10 yards to the TEXASAM25, NO PLAY.

3rd & 21Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Charles Cross) to the TexAM 30

3rd & 26Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the TexAM 27

4th & 23Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the TexAM 32

4th & 28Field Goal Missed+49 yds

Nolan McCord 49 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +2.84

Devon Achane run for 41 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Zach Calzada pass complete to Ainias Smith for 7 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Demond Demas

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.96

Devon Achane run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 22

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias Smith

4th & 14Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Derick Hunter Jr.) to the MisSt 27

4th & 19Field Goal Good+44 yds

Seth Small 44 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Christian Ford, broken up by Leon O'Neal Jr.

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 3 yds to the MisSt 48

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Tyreek Chappell

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TexAM 11

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.41

Isaiah Spiller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 10

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Zach Calzada pass incomplete to Ainias Smith

3rd & 11Safety0 ydsPPA -1.69

Nathan Pickering Safety

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the TexAM 23

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.42

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 28

3rd & 15Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.89

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 33

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
47%
34 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
70%
10 plays
50%
12 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th

Texas A&M

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
22 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
4th