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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2021Week 5
Ole MissOle Miss
21
-Final
42
AlabamaAlabama
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 15.7

Home Win Probability

Alabama 79%

Market (consensus)

Alabama -15

Edge: Alabama -15 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Ole MissOle Miss
0071421
AlabamaAlabama
7217742

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-028-035-742-742-1442-21
AlabamaOle Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMALAOMALAOMALAOMALAOMALAOMALAOMALAOMALAOMALAOMALADOWNS1659ydTD1394ydDOWNS522ydTD1047ydPUNT513ydPUNT624ydDOWNS45ydTD627ydTO1-9ydTD414ydEND3-11ydTD677ydTD1075ydTO1159ydPUNT39ydTD966ydTD770ydDOWNS845ydTD950ydEND38yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Ole Miss and Alabama
StatisticOle MissAlabama
Passing21-2920-26
Pass Yards213241
Rush Yards78210
Total Yards291451
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-146-13
Penalties7-555-52
Possession22:0137:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Ole Miss
passing
Matt Corral
21/29, 213 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Henry Parrish Jr.
11 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Chase Rogers
3 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Alabama
passing
Bryce Young
20/26, 241 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Brian Robinson Jr.
36 CAR, 171 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Jameson Williams
5 REC, 65 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 1 yd to the Miss 49

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Alab 46

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.53

Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Alab 37

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Alab 36

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Alab 35

4th & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.04

Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 10 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 5 yds to the Alab 20

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jadon Jackson) to the Alab 25

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Drummond, Dontario rush for 11 yards to the ALABAMA14, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Pearson, Jahcour) 10 yards to the ALABAMA35, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.94

Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 18 yds to the Alab 17

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.66

Matt Corral run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 18

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.78

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Matt Corral pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Alab 11

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 5 yds to the Alab 6

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.13

Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Alab 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 4 yds to the Alab 10

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 15

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.48

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 11 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 15 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 48

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.56

Jase McClellan run for 10 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Miss 37

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.95

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 7 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.20

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 12 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 16

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.90

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 41

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 41

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 6 yds to the Miss 47

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.77

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 16 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 24

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.12

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel Billingsley

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 12

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.87

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Miss 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo Earle

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Bryce Young run for 4 yds to the Miss 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 30

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Nick Broeker) to the Miss 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 13 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 34

3rd & 14Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 38

4th & 10Punt+2 yds

Mac Brown punt for 47 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 17

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 3 yds to the Alab 24

3rd & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.94

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 15 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 41

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jase McClellan

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson Williams

4th & 8Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Braylon Sanders at the Miss 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dontario Drummond

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Miss 24

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 7 yds to the Miss 31

4th & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Miss 23

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.25

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 11 yds to the Miss 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the Miss 8

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the Miss 4

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 3

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.82

Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 3 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

4th & 1Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Will Reichard kickoff for 64 yds , Jerrion Ealy return for 22 yds to the Miss 23

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.09

Matt Corral sacked by Phidarian Mathis for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 14 Matt Corral fumbled, forced by Phidarian Mathis, recovered by Alab Justin Eboigbe , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 9

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 7

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

Young, Bryce pass incomplete to Billingsley, Jahleel, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Jones, Jaylon) 5 yards to the OLEMISS2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Miss 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 32

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

Corral, Matt pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Broeker, Nick) 10 yards to the OLEMISS22, NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.32

Matt Corral sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 16

3rd & 19Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.04

Matt Corral run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 14

0th & 19End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Caden Costa kickoff for 64 yds , Jameson Williams return for 22 yds to the Alab 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.52

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 29 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 12 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Miss 33

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.65

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 15 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.65

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 17 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Parrish Jr., Henry rush for 1 yard to the OLEMISS26, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (James, Jeremy) 10 yards to the OLEMISS15, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.69

Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 17 yds to the Miss 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.42

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 45

2nd & 2Penalty+5 yds

Corral, Matt pass complete to Jackson, Dannis for 2 yards to the OLEMISS47, PENALTY ALABAMA 12 men on the field 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 48

3rd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.23

Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 14 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 3 yds to the Alab 35

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the Alab 30

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.58

Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+14 yds

Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Sanders, Braylon, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Armour-Davis, Jalyn) 14 yards to the ALABAMA10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Matt Corral run for 10 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Caden Costa kickoff for 62 yds , Slade Bolden return for 18 yds to the Alab 21

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 28

2nd & 3Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.87

Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 21 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Miss 43

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 34

2nd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.84

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for no gain to the Miss 34

3rd & 6Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.46

Bryce Young sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 36

4th & 8Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.89

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 19 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 18

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Bryce Young run for 3 yds to the Miss 15

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (JoJo Earle) to the Miss 20

3rd & 13Pass Interception Return+1 ydsPPA -3.31

Bryce Young pass intercepted Keidron Smith return for 1 yd to the Miss 1

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 1

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jadon Jackson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.11

Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 9 yds to the Miss 10

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 34

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.49

Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 30

2nd & 14Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 9 yds to the Alab 39

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

Young, Bryce pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the ALABAMA33 (Gordon, Jamond), PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Reese, Otis) 10 yards to the ALABAMA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.11

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 21 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 25

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.84

Bryce Young sacked by Sam Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 24

2nd & 15Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.51

Bryce Young sacked by Chance Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 28

3rd & 19Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.74

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 26 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds , Jerrion Ealy return for 15 yds to the Miss 15 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Kendrick Blackshire) to the Miss 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.93

Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 42 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Matt Corral run for no gain to the Alab 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Matt Corral pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 9 yds to the Alab 19

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.62

Matt Corral pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 14 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Caden Costa kickoff for 60 yds , Slade Bolden return for no gain to the Alab 5

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.34

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Bryce Young pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 21

3rd & 5Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.35

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 20 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 47

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 49

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.65

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the Alab 21

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 20

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.20

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Braylon Sanders

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Matt Corral pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Snoop Conner

4th & 10Penalty+13 yds

Corral, Matt pass incomplete to Sanders, Braylon, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jobe, Josh) 13 yards to the ALABAMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Matt Corral pass complete to Chase Rogers for 2 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 39

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Alab 48

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

Brian Robinson Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 48

Situational Analysis

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
54%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
36%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
40%
5 plays

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
52%
31 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
30%
10 plays
83%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play