Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 2.1

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 47%

Market (consensus)

Mississippi State +1.5

Edge: LSU -1.5 (0.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LSULSU
7014728
Mississippi StateMississippi State
0371525

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-73-73-1410-2817-2825-28
Mississippi StateLSU

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUTO645ydTD935ydPUNT518ydPUNT513ydTO738ydPUNT527ydFG1480ydTO418ydPUNT512ydPUNT620ydEND432ydTD275ydMISS1460ydPUNT736ydPUNT30ydTD158ydTD875ydTD975ydTD1275ydPUNT34ydTD1266ydEND3-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing LSU and Mississippi State
StatisticLSUMississippi State
Passing17-2747-62
Pass Yards280371
Rush Yards63115
Total Yards343486
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-1312-18
Penalties5-326-36
Possession24:5235:08

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

LSU
passing
Max Johnson
17/27, 280 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Tyrion Davis-Price
13 CAR, 51 YDS
receiving
Kayshon Boutte
4 REC, 85 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
47/62, 371 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dillon Johnson
8 CAR, 51 YDS
receiving
Makai Polk
8 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.52

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 13 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.11

Jo'quavious Marks run for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the LSU 38

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the LSU 37

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -3.00

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 7 yds Malik Heath fumbled, recovered by LSU , return for 35 yds to the MisSt 35

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the MisSt 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 9 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Max Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 26

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.06

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the MisSt 14

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 1 yd to the MisSt 11

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Max Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +3.06

Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 11 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the MisSt 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 19

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 18

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.35

Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 12 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Armoni Goodwin run for 2 yds to the LSU 32

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Max Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Max Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Avery Atkins punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 3 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 41

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.47

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 44

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 40

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA -0.12

Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the LSU 25

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.26

Will Rogers pass intercepted Cordale Flott return for no gain to the LSU 11

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 14

2nd & 7Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.40

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 18 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the LSU 38

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Max Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Max Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt+5 yds

Avery Atkins punt for 52 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 20

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.47

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 22 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Will Rogers for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 38

2nd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 8 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.88

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 19 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.32

Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 13 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the LSU 13

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the LSU 13

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.09

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the LSU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the LSU 6

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the LSU 2

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.51

Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 5

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Nolan McCord 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.20

Max Johnson sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 16

2nd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.07

Max Johnson pass complete to Deion Smith for 7 yds to the LSU 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.75

Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-10 ydsPPA -2.53

Max Johnson pass intercepted Emmanuel Forbes return for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.17

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+24 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 24 yds to the LSU 39

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the LSU 41

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the LSU 47

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.42

Max Johnson pass complete to Jack Bech for 4 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Max Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.91

Max Johnson sacked by Aaron Odom for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 45

3rd & 16Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.58

Max Johnson pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 14 yds to the MisSt 41

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Avery Atkins punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.13

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.58

Will Rogers sacked by Ali Gaye for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 42

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +5.15

Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 64 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 2 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 41

1st & 5Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.95

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.83

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 15 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the LSU 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the LSU 26

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the LSU 15

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+33 yds

Nolan McCord 33 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Armoni Goodwin run for 9 yds to the LSU 29

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.13

Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Max Johnson pass complete to Armoni Goodwin for 2 yds to the LSU 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.78

Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 10 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 46

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Max Johnson pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 5 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Max Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Avery Atkins punt for 44 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+2 yds

Archer Trafford punt for 40 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 2 yds to the LSU 42

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+58 ydsPPA +4.56

Max Johnson pass complete to Trey Palmer for 58 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Dillon Johnson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.41

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 22 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the LSU 29

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +3.15

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 29 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Armoni Goodwin run for no gain to the LSU 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Max Johnson pass complete to Kayshon Boutte for 9 yds to the LSU 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the LSU 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Max Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Max Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 8Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Max Johnson pass complete to Malik Nabers for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +4.20

Max Johnson pass complete to Kole Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.74

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 9 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the LSU 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the LSU 39

3rd & 2Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.23

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 17 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Jo'quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the LSU 14

2nd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the LSU 3

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the LSU 2

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 2 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the LSU 30

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.86

Tyrion Davis-Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Max Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+2 yds

Avery Atkins punt for 39 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 1 yd to the MisSt 35

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.69

Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 5 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 41

1st & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.87

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 12 yds to the LSU 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the LSU 33

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 38

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Will Rogers run for 10 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the LSU 25

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 20

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 4 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Will Rogers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.28

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Rogers pass to Malik Heath for Two-Point Conversion)

3rd & 0Penalty+2 yds

LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the LSU 1

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.09

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 42

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.97

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 44

Situational Analysis

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
22 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
56%
9 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
49%
35 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
44%
9 plays
25%
8 plays
64%
14 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
89%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
4th