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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Florida by 15.9

Home Win Probability

Florida 83%

Market (consensus)

Florida -19

Edge: Tennessee +19 (3.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TennesseeTennessee
770014
FloridaFlorida
10714738

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-710-1417-1424-1431-1438-14
FloridaTennessee

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENFLOTENPUNT36ydTD1066ydTD680ydFG1045ydPUNT36ydPUNT32ydTD489ydPUNT626ydPUNT516ydTD559ydPUNT3-1ydTO440ydDOWNS755ydTD678ydDOWNS1456ydTD870ydPUNT727ydPUNT549ydPUNT819ydTD1280ydEND965yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Tennessee and Florida
StatisticTennesseeFlorida
Passing15-3122-28
Pass Yards275222
Rush Yards148283
Total Yards423505
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-139-14
Penalties10-856-45
Possession24:3135:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Tennessee
passing
Hendon Hooker
13/23, 221 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jabari Small
11 CAR, 59 YDS
receiving
JaVonta Payton
2 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Florida
passing
Emory Jones
21/27, 209 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Emory Jones
15 CAR, 144 YDS
receiving
Justin Shorter
3 REC, 54 YDS
defense
Trey Dean III
1.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the Tenn 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jimmy Calloway

4th & 4Punt+5 yds

Paxton Brooks punt for 40 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 5 yds to the Fla 34

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Emory Jones run for 12 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Malik Davis run for no gain to the Fla 46

2nd & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.44

Malik Davis run for 6 yds to the FLORIDA 48 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.32

Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 16 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin Shorter

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Tenn 11

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.75

Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Malik Davis run for 1 yd to the Tenn 5

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Tenn 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton Fant

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.70

Hendon Hooker run for 15 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.48

Jabari Small run for 16 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 3 yds to the Fla 47

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +5.48

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 47 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Emory Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 24

2nd & 11Penalty+5 yds

Jones, Emory pass complete to Wells, Rick for 8 yards to the FLORIDA32, PENALTY TENNESSEE offside 5 yards to the FLORIDA29, NO PLAY.

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.73

Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Emory Jones run for 13 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.87

Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 48

2nd & 14Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.20

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the Tenn 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.38

Emory Jones pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 13 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the Tenn 18

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.73

Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 20

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jean Delance) to the Tenn 25

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (Emory Jones) to the Tenn 30

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Xzavier Henderson

4th & 15Field Goal Good+47 yds

Jace Christmann 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the Tenn 26

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin Hyatt

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Paxton Brooks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 29

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Malik Davis run for no gain to the Fla 29

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 3 yds to the Fla 32

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 36

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Fla 31

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 58 yds, downed at the Tenn 11

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Tiyon Evans run for 3 yds to the Tenn 14

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 8 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 3 yds to the Tenn 25

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.53

Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 75 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Emory Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the Fla 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.05

Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 11 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Emory Jones sacked by Ja'Quain Blakely for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 40

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 5 yds to the Fla 45

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Tenn 49

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Theo Jackson at the Tenn 9

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 11

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.71

Jalin Hyatt run for 10 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 2 yds to the Tenn 23

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.44

Jabari Small run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 22

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Tenn 25

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Paxton Brooks punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 41

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Fla 42

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the Fla 46

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.04

Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 6 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.92

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 20 yds to the Tenn 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Elijah Simmons) to the Tenn 23

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Nay'Quan Wright run for 23 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob Warren

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the Tenn 28

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.32

Hendon Hooker sacked by Zachary Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 25

4th & 11Punt+30 yds

Paxton Brooks punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the FLORIDA 30 TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jimmy Holiday) to the Fla 45

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

TENNESSEE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jimmy Holiday) to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Tenn 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 3 yds to the Tenn 33

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Emory Jones run for 1 yd to the Tenn 32

4th & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+17 ydsPPA -2.67

Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 17 yds Jacob Copeland fumbled, forced by Alontae Taylor, recovered by Tenn Aaron Beasley

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Tenn 21

2nd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.13

Jabari Small run for 14 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Cedric Tillman for 5 yds to the Tenn 40

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 35

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 30

2nd & 15Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.20

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jabari Small for 22 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.87

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 18 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.

2nd & 10Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Chase McGrath 47 Yard Field Goal Missed

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Emory Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 27

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.13

Malik Davis run for 10 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.24

Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 33 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.23

Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds to the Tenn 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 4 yds to the Tenn 13

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.60

Trent Whittemore pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 13 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.51

Tiyon Evans run for 10 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Tiyon Evans run for 8 yds to the Tenn 32

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the Tenn 33

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.02

Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Tenn 42

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.13

Tiyon Evans run for 11 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd to the Fla 46

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the Fla 42

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jacob Warren

4th & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.70

Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 7 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Hendon Hooker sacked by Gervon Dexter and Ty'Ron Hopper for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 36

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.17

Tiyon Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37

3rd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 7 yds to the Fla 30

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.48

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jimmy Calloway

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 13 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.56

Emory Jones run for 24 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Pierce, Dameon rush for 7 yards to the TENNESSEE26, PENALTY FLORIDA holding (Gouraige, Richard) 10 yards to the TENNESSEE43, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.11

Emory Jones run for 11 yds to the Tenn 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for 6 yds to the Tenn 26

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Tenn 16

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.24

Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Tenn 9

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.54

Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tiyon Evans run for no gain to the Tenn 25

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Tiyon Evans run for 12 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 9 yds to the Tenn 46

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Princeton Fant

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the Fla 49

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the Fla 43

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

TENNESSEE Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the Fla 48

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Paxton Brooks punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Xzavier Henderson at the Fla 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the Fla 13

2nd & 9Rush+49 ydsPPA +3.96

Emory Jones run for 49 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Kemore Gamble

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 40

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Tenn 45

3rd & 17Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Emory Jones run for 6 yds to the Tenn 39

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 39 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tiyon Evans

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the Tenn 20

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.96

Hendon Hooker pass complete to Jacob Warren for 15 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Jalin Hyatt

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.57

Tiyon Evans run for 2 yds to the Fla 37 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Princely Umanmielen) to the Fla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Hendon Hooker sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 45 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by Tenn Jacob Warren , return for 0 yards

2nd & 17Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.69

Tiyon Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 44

3rd & 18Penalty-5 yds

TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 39

3rd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Tiyon Evans

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Paxton Brooks punt for 61 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 24

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the Fla 28

3rd & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Emory Jones pass complete to Malik Davis for 10 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Malik Davis run for 7 yds to the Fla 45

2nd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.00

Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin Shorter

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.30

Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 11 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.21

Dameon Pierce run for 11 yds to the Tenn 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Emory Jones pass incomplete to Justin Shorter

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Tenn 15

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.59

Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 6 yds to the Tenn 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Malik Davis 9 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tiyon Evans run for 5 yds to the Tenn 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Joe Milton III run for 6 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.41

Joe Milton III pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 37 yds to the Fla 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Velus Jones Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.39

Joe Milton III pass complete to Tiyon Evans for 17 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Joe Milton III pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jalin Hyatt

Situational Analysis

Tennessee

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
34%
29 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
43%
14 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
45%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
64%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play