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← Back to GamesSep 25, 2021Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 35.6

Home Win Probability

Alabama 98%

Market (consensus)

Alabama -45

Edge: Southern Miss +45 (9.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 25, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Southern MissSouthern Miss
070714
AlabamaAlabama
212171463

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567014-021-035-042-749-749-1456-1463-14
AlabamaSouthern Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ALASMALASMALASMALASMALASMALASMALASMSMALASMALASMALASMALASMALASMALATD00ydPUNT3-1ydTD860ydTO945ydTD676ydPUNT3-4ydTD460ydPUNT37ydTD181ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-2ydTD546ydTD1097ydEND1-2ydPUNT3-7ydTD468ydPUNT39ydTO1165ydTD1284ydTD00ydPUNT626ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-9ydTD885ydPUNT36ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Southern Miss and Alabama
StatisticSouthern MissAlabama
Passing11-2423-26
Pass Yards131395
Rush Yards82211
Total Yards213606
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-156-10
Penalties5-367-62
Possession31:1828:42

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Southern Miss
passing
Ty Keyes
11/24, 131 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Ty Keyes
12 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Grayson Gunter
3 REC, 61 YDS
defense
Alabama
passing
Bryce Young
20/22, 313 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Roydell Williams
11 CAR, 110 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jahleel Billingsley
5 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return Touchdown+100 yds

Briggs Bourgeois kickoff for 65 yds , Jameson Williams return for 100 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Ty Keyes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Ty Keyes pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 4 yds to the SoMis 25

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 20

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Ty Keyes pass incomplete to Antoine Robinson

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 40 yds, fair catch by JoJo Earle at the Alab 40

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -1.91

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 35

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 37

3rd & 13Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.25

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 15 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the SoMis 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.78

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 25 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.34

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for no gain to the SoMis 17

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the SoMis 16

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.22

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 16 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Chandler Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.60

Ty Keyes pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 21 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ty Keyes pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.87

Ty Keyes pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 14 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 38

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Chandler Pittman run for 7 yds to the Alab 31

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 30

4th & 1Pass Interception Return+6 ydsPPA -2.97

Ty Keyes pass intercepted DeMarcco Hellams return for 6 yds to the Alab 24

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.38

Jase McClellan run for 27 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel Billingsley

3rd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.93

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 20 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the SoMis 22

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.56

Cameron Latu 1 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Will Reichard Kick)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 16

2nd & 12Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.27

Ty Keyes sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 6

3rd & 22Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.02

Ty Keyes run for 8 yds to the SoMis 14

4th & 14Punt+45 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 35 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Alab 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 44

2nd & 56Rush+55 ydsPPA +4.92

Roydell Williams run for 55 yds to the SoMis 1

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Roydell Williams run for no gain to the SoMis 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ty Keyes run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ty Keyes pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 49 yds, fair catch by JoJo Earle at the Alab 19

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+81 ydsPPA +6.44

Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 81 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ty Keyes pass complete to Da'quan Bailey-Brown for 3 yds to the SoMis 28

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.27

Ty Keyes pass complete to Da'quan Bailey-Brown for no gain to the SoMis 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 44 yds, downed at the Alab 28

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Roydell Williams run for no gain to the Alab 28

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.59

Bryce Young sacked by TEAM for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 24 ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Alab 24

3rd & 14Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.06

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the Alab 26

4th & 12Punt+18 yds

James Burnip punt for 38 yds , Da'quan Bailey-Brown returns for 18 yds to the Alab 46

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Keyes, Ty rush for 3 yards to the ALABAMA43, PENALTY SOUMISS holding 10 yards to the SOUMISS44, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.92

Ty Keyes pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 26 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ty Keyes run for no gain to the Alab 30

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.37

Ty Keyes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 33

3rd & 13Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.20

Ty Keyes pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 19 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Ty Keyes pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 14 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.34

Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the Alab 20

2nd & 5Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.93

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 33 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the SoMis 39

2nd & 2Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.14

Roydell Williams run for 14 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.85

Roydell Williams run for 16 yds to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Penalty-5 yds

Williams, Roydell rush for loss of 1 yard to the SOUMISS6, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal formation 5 yards to the SOUMISS10, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.75

Bryce Young sacked by Josh Carr Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 17

2nd & 17Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 8 yds to the SoMis 9

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.01

Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.06

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ty Keyes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Gerquan Scott) to the SoMis 18

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Ty Keyes pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

4th & 17Punt+49 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 39 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 42 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Alab 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 8 yds to the Alab 40

2nd & 2Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.89

Jase McClellan run for 13 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+36 ydsPPA +1.09

Jase McClellan run for 25 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (11 Yards) to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 11 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ty Keyes pass incomplete to Grayson Gunter

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Ty Keyes run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Ty Keyes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 60 yds, downed at the Alab 6

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jase McClellan run for no gain to the Alab 6

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.33

Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 22 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Bryce Young pass complete to John Metchie III for 4 yds to the Alab 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.51

Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 23 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 46

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Bryce Young pass complete to Trey Sanders for 3 yds to the SoMis 43

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 7 yds to the SoMis 36

4th & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.80

Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Roydell Williams run for no gain to the SoMis 28

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Young, Bryce pass complete to Latu, Cameron for 19 yards to the SOUMISS9, PENALTY ALABAMA holding 10 yards to the SOUMISS38, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 9 yds to the SoMis 29

3rd & 11Pass Interception Return+13 ydsPPA -2.84

Bryce Young pass intercepted Malik Shorts return for 13 yds to the SoMis 16

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Ty Keyes run for 8 yds to the SoMis 24

2nd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.84

Ty Keyes pass complete to Brad Dennis for no gain to the SoMis 24

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.47

Chandler Pittman run for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Ty Keyes pass incomplete to Grayson Gunter

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Chandler Pittman run for 2 yds to the SoMis 37

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.64

Ty Keyes run for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Ty Keyes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.25

Ty Keyes run for 19 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 31

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Ty Keyes run for 4 yds to the Alab 27

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

Keyes, Ty pass incomplete to Caston, Jakarius, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jobe, Josh) 15 yards to the ALABAMA12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS.

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 17

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Chandler Pittman run for 6 yds to the Alab 11

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.76

Ty Keyes pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 11 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)

2nd & 9Kickoff Return Touchdown+83 yds

Briggs Bourgeois kickoff for 48 yds , Jameson Williams return for 83 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Chandler Pittman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.81

Ty Keyes pass complete to Dajon Richard for 19 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Ty Keyes pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Dajon Richard run for 2 yds to the Alab 49

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Dajon Richard run for no gain to the Alab 49

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 49 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Alab 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Alab 24

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Paul Tyson pass incomplete to Traeshon Holden

4th & 6Punt0 yds

James Burnip punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Da'quan Bailey-Brown at the SoMis 36

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.97

Ty Keyes sacked by Jamil Burroughs for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 27

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Ty Keyes pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Ty Keyes pass incomplete to Dajon Richard

4th & 19Punt-2 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 56 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.78

Paul Tyson pass complete to Javon Baker for 35 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Trey Sanders run for 3 yds to the SoMis 47

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46

3rd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.46

Paul Tyson pass complete to Cameron Latu for 23 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.50

Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the SoMis 21 ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 31

1st & 18Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28

2nd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.78

Jalen Milroe pass complete to Javon Baker for 24 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Dajon Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Tee Webb run for 1 yd to the SoMis 27

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Dajon Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 29 yds, downed at the Alab 40

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 39

Situational Analysis

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
10%
20 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
29%
14 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
42%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
3 plays
100%
5 plays
17%
6 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play