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← Back to GamesDec 13, 2020Week 15
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Auburn by 9.4

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 24%

Market (consensus)

Mississippi State +5.5

Edge: Auburn -5.5 (3.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 13, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
AuburnAuburn
3331524
Mississippi StateMississippi State
030710

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-33-33-63-93-1610-24
Mississippi StateAuburn

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBPUNT420ydPUNT32ydFG1540ydPUNT36ydPUNT624ydTO942ydDOWNS46ydFG1137ydPUNT34ydPUNT31ydFG737ydMISS953ydPUNT35ydTO69ydFG710ydPUNT524ydPUNT37ydPUNT35ydTD1095ydTD529ydTD575ydDOWNS834ydPUNT37ydDOWNS4-2ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Auburn and Mississippi State
StatisticAuburnMississippi State
Passing15-3230-51
Pass Yards125221
Rush Yards21819
Total Yards343240
Turnovers02
3rd Down5-164-16
Penalties8-807-90
Possession30:5629:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Auburn
passing
Bo Nix
15/32, 125 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Tank Bigsby
26 CAR, 192 YDS
receiving
Seth Williams
3 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
30/51, 221 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Dillon Johnson
5 CAR, 30 YDS
receiving
Jaden Walley
8 REC, 100 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 7 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Collin Duncan) to the Aub 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 45

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Bo Nix pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Bo Nix pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 2 yds to the MisSt 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Colby Wooden

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Nehemiah Pritchett

4th & 8Punt+28 yds

Tucker Day punt for 43 yds, downed at the MS State 35 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

AUBURN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Aub 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 3 yds to the Aub 38

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.96

Tank Bigsby run for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Bo Nix pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 4 yds to the MisSt 39

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.80

Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 8 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.20

Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli Stove

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.46

Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 9 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.08

Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Bo Nix pass incomplete, broken up by Collin Duncan

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Bo Nix pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+27 yds

Anders Carlson 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Will Rogers sacked by Dre Butler for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 19

2nd & 16Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, PENALTY AU offside defense (Big Kat Bryant) 5 yards to the MS31, NO PLAY.

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious Marks

4th & 4Punt+5 yds

Tucker Day punt for 47 yds , Eli Stove returns for 5 yds to the Aub 27

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the Aub 33

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.63

Tank Bigsby run for 5 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Tank Bigsby rush for no gain to the 50 yardline (Kobe Jones;Tyrus Wheat), PENALTY AU holding (Nick Brahms) 10 yards to the AU40, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Bo Nix run for 5 yds to the Aub 45

2nd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 6 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli Stove

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 4 yds to the MisSt 15

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.63

Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.47

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 47

3rd & 12Pass Interception Return+28 ydsPPA -1.06

Will Rogers pass intercepted Roger McCreary return for 28 yds to the MisSt 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 5 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.05

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for no gain to the MisSt 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 1 yd to the MisSt 40

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.64

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey, broken up by Jaren Handy

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.18

Will Rogers sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 37

4th & 13Penalty+15 yds

Tucker Day punt 45 yards to the AU18, downed, PENALTY AU roughing the kicker (1Z) 15 yards to the AU48, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for no gain to the Aub 48

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.79

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Geor'quarius Spivey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 48

2nd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Will Rogers pass incomplete to G. Spivey, PENALTY AU pass interference (Roger McCreary) 15 yards to the AU22, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Will Rogers rush for no gain to the AU22 (Smoke Monday), PENALTY MS holding (Kameron Jones) 10 yards to the AU32, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.50

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the Aub 23

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey

4th & 11Field Goal Good+41 yds

Brandon Ruiz 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony Schwartz

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers pass incomplete, broken up by Roger McCreary

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 21

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 43

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +1.80

Tank Bigsby run for 34 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the MS12 (Collin Duncan), PENALTY AU holding (Seth Williams) 10 yards to the MS22, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony Schwartz

3rd & 18Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.95

Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for no gain to the MisSt 20

4th & 18Field Goal Good+37 yds

Anders Carlson 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 18End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.74

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Will Rogers run for 8 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.97

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 16 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.45

Jo'Quavious Marks run for 12 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.53

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for no gain to the Aub 29

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 3 yds to the Aub 26

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 4 yds to the Aub 22

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+40 yds

Brandon Ruiz 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 24

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 27

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Shedrick Jackson, broken up by Shawn Preston Jr.

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.58

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, PENALTY MS holding (Kameron Jones) 10 yards to the MS34, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

2nd & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 12Pass Interception Return+31 ydsPPA -0.33

Will Rogers pass intercepted Smoke Monday return for 31 yds to the MisSt 38

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Bo Nix run for 8 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony Schwartz

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.58

Tank Bigsby run for 6 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams, PENALTY AU ineligible downfield on pass (Brenden Coffey) 5 yards to the MS29, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the MisSt 28

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli Stove, broken up by Shawn Preston Jr.

4th & 14Field Goal Good+45 yds

Anders Carlson 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Rogers pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.63

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 27 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Brad Cumbest, broken up by Zion Puckett

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.72

Will Rogers sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 49

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Eli Stove at the Aub 8

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 9

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Bo Nix pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 6 yds to the Aub 15

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the Aub 43

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin, broken up by Roger McCreary

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Will Rogers run for no gain to the Aub 43

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Reed Bowman punt for 38 yds, downed at the Aub 5

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.28

Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Aub 5

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 8

3rd & 7Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.82

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 25 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.24

Tank Bigsby run for 27 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Bo Nix pass complete to Luke Deal for 7 yds to the MisSt 31

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.43

Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Shaun Shivers run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony Schwartz

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

AUBURN Penalty, false start (Seth Williams) to the MisSt 32

3rd & 14Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +4.77

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious Marks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin, broken up by Nehemiah Pritchett

3rd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.49

Will Rogers run for 13 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the Aub 8

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.12

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Brandon Ruiz KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the Aub 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.94

Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the MS State 45 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Marquiss Spencer) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.76

Tank Bigsby run for 24 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the MisSt 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Bo Nix run for 3 yds for a TD (Bo Nix pass to Ze'Vian Capers for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 16 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.06

Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 15 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Will Rogers sacked by Owen Pappoe for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 44

2nd & 17Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.03

Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the Aub 46

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 49

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Bo Nix run for no gain to the MisSt 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Oscar Chapman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 13

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.68

Will Rogers sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 1

2nd & 22Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.04

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 10

3rd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Will Rogers pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 16

4th & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA +0.31

Will Rogers sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 11

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.41

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 13

Situational Analysis

Auburn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
25 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
13%
8 plays
83%
6 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays