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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2020Week 13

House Prediction

Model Margin

Liberty by 42.2

Home Win Probability

Liberty 99%

Market (consensus)

Liberty -35.5

Edge: Liberty -35.5 (6.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MassachusettsMassachusetts
00000
LibertyLiberty
141714045

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-028-038-045-0
LibertyMassachusetts

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBMASLIBPUNT34ydPUNT44ydPUNT625ydTD880ydTO947ydTD272ydMISS751ydTD576ydPUNT37ydTD780ydDOWNS936ydDOWNS755ydUncategorized00ydMISS1148ydDOWNS538ydTD567ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT629ydTO421ydTD341ydPUNT6-1ydUncategorized1982yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Massachusetts and Liberty
StatisticMassachusettsLiberty
Passing9-2317-31
Pass Yards172251
Rush Yards55378
Total Yards227629
Turnovers20
3rd Down5-1310-15
Penalties6-504-45
Possession25:5034:01

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Massachusetts
passing
Garrett Dzuro
9/22, 172 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Cam Roberson
5 CAR, 17 YDS
receiving
Samuel Emilus
4 REC, 82 YDS
defense
Mike Ruane
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
Liberty
passing
Malik Willis
16/24, 223 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Peytton Pickett
10 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Demario Douglas
4 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Javon Scruggs
1.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Cam Roberson run for 4 yds to the UMass 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 59 yds, downed at the Liber 12

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.65

Joshua Mack run for 13 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Malik Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 24 Malik Willis fumbled, forced by Jake Byczko, recovered by Liber

2nd & 11Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.47

Malik Willis sacked by Mike Ruane and Taishan Holmes for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 16

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 49 yds, downed at the UMass 35

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Josiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the UMass 38

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UMass 33

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Josiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the UMass 35

3rd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.53

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 10 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Liber 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 45

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the Liber 40

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 40 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 8 yds to the Liber 28

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Malik Willis pass incomplete

3rd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.50

Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Liber 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.86

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 13 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the UMass 40

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.23

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 9 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 31 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 7 yds to the UMass 32

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Josiah Johnson run for 9 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 42

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Garrett Dzuro run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Josiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the Liber 48 Josiah Johnson fumbled, forced by Javon Scruggs, recovered by UMass Josiah Johnson for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Josiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the Liber 44

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UMass 46

2nd & 16Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.89

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 9 yds to the Liber 45

3rd & 7Penalty+15 yds

LIBERTY Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Liber 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Samuel Emilus run for 3 yds to the Liber 27

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -4.01

Josiah Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 28 Josiah Johnson fumbled, forced by Ralfs Rusins, recovered by Liber Aaron Pierre

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Joshua Mack run for 13 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +4.66

Joshua Mack run for 59 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Cam Roberson run for 3 yds to the UMass 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.10

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 17 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.60

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 31 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Cam Roberson run for 1 yd to the Liber 23

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Cam Roberson run for 4 yds to the Liber 19

3rd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.48

Josiah Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 24

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Jeremy Martin 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.77

Malik Willis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 23

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the Liber 33

3rd & 1Rush+42 ydsPPA +3.47

Peytton Pickett run for 42 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.16

Peytton Pickett run for 12 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Malik Willis pass complete to Michael Bollinger for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Garrett Dzuro run for 5 yds to the UMass 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Jared Cole run for 2 yds to the UMass 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 48 yds, downed at the Liber 20

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Troy Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 19

2nd & 11Penalty+5 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Liber 24

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the Liber 29

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.78

Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the Liber 40

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.41

Malik Willis run for no gain to the Liber 40

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.28

Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Te'Rai Powell) to the UMass 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +3.24

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 41 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Jared Cole run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 23

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Cam Roberson

3rd & 12Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.80

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Javon Turner for 33 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the Liber 43

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.22

Garrett Dzuro run for 9 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.81

Samuel Emilus run for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 40

2nd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the Liber 39

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Melvin Hill

4th & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Evan Deckers pass incomplete to Noah Boykin

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Chris Barrett

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 8 yds to the Liber 47

3rd & 2Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.00

Peytton Pickett run for 13 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Malik Willis pass complete to Chris Barrett for 1 yd to the UMass 39

2nd & 9Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.62

Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 37 yds to the UMass 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the UMass 1

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UMass 6

0th & 14End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

No play data available
1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.64

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for no gain to the Liber 23

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario Douglas

3rd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 19 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Malik Willis run for 10 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the UMass 47

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the UMass 44

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.02

Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ Daniels

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the UMass 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ Daniels

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Alex Barbir 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.64

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 32 yds to the Liber 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Ellis Merriweather run for 8 yds to the Liber 31

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the Liber 31

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Garrett Dzuro run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 33

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.32

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson Jr.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the Liber 40

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Malik Willis pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.77

Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 6 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah Frith

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +5.34

Malik Willis run for 54 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Garrett Dzuro sacked by Stephen Sings V for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 19

2nd & 16Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Cam Roberson run for 5 yds to the UMass 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson Jr.

4th & 11Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.75

Chris Ferguson pass complete to Trevor Hobbs for 28 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the UMass 40

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Joshua Mack

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Samuel Emilus at the UMass 14

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 15

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Samuel Emilus

3rd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.00

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 20 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+4 ydsPPA -1.76

Garrett Dzuro pass intercepted Quinton Reese return for 4 yds to the UMass 41

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.40

Peytton Pickett run for 10 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.27

Peytton Pickett run for 15 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Peytton Pickett run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jared Cole run for no gain to the UMass 18

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.62

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 13 yds to the UMass 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Jared Cole run for 1 yd to the UMass 32

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Jermaine Johnson Jr.

3rd & 9Penalty-10 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Abosi) to the UMass 22

3rd & 19Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.07

Garrett Dzuro sacked by Mason Wolk for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 17

4th & 24Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 73 yds, downed at the Liber 10

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 14

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.76

Troy Henderson run for 11 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Troy Henderson run for 6 yds to the Liber 31

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Troy Henderson run for 10 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Troy Henderson run for 7 yds to the Liber 48

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.29

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Brody Brumm

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.49

Troy Henderson run for 3 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Troy Henderson run for 9 yds to the UMass 40

2nd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.78

Peytton Pickett run for 6 yds to the UMass 34 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UMass 44

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.57

Troy Henderson run for 6 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaivian Lofton

2nd & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.34

Troy Henderson run for 25 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Troy Henderson run for 3 yds to the UMass 10

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Troy Henderson run for 6 yds to the UMass 4

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Troy Henderson run for no gain to the UMass 4

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.62

Troy Henderson run for 2 yds to the UMass 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.23

Troy Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 5

2nd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.64

Troy Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UMass 10

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Johnathan Bennett run for 2 yds to the UMass 8

Situational Analysis

Massachusetts

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
21 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
38%
8 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
55%
33 plays
2nd
17%
6 plays
80%
5 plays
55%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
88%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play