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← Back to GamesOct 25, 2020Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 13.6

Home Win Probability

San José State 22%

Market (consensus)

San José State +7.5

Edge: Air Force -7.5 (6.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 25, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
00066
San José StateSan José State
0014317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-014-017-6
San José StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSAFSJSPUNT37ydTO827ydDOWNS633ydPUNT730ydPUNT431ydPUNT35ydTO619ydDOWNS1787ydEND312ydPUNT519ydTD992ydPUNT34ydPUNT513ydTO29ydTD314ydTD665ydFG1578ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT427ydMISS1358ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and San José State
StatisticAir ForceSan José State
Passing9-1722-29
Pass Yards92226
Rush Yards20668
Total Yards298294
Turnovers21
3rd Down9-165-12
Penalties4-556-45
Possession29:2430:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
9/17, 92 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brandon Lewis
9 CAR, 60 YDS
receiving
Kyle Patterson
3 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Elisha Palm
1.5 TFL, 1 PD
San José State
passing
Nick Starkel
22/29, 226 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kairee Robinson
12 CAR, 31 YDS
receiving
Bailey Gaither
8 REC, 110 YDS
defense
Kyle Harmon
1 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 5 yds to the SJSt 29

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Shamar Garrett run for 2 yds to the SJSt 31

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Nick Starkel pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Elijah Fischer punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 44

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.37

Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the SJSt 47

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 44

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.43

Kadin Remsberg run for 7 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 38

2nd & 11Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -3.01

Kadin Remsberg run for no gain to the SJSt 38 Kadin Remsberg fumbled, recovered by SJSt Cade Hall

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 8 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 44

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.92

Kairee Robinson run for 7 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Nick Nash run for 7 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 29

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.93

Nick Starkel pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Matthew Murla run for 2 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Brandon Lewis run for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.00

Brandon Lewis run for 11 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis, broken up by Kyle Harmon

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the SJSt 41

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis, broken up by Nehemiah Shelton

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 13

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

STARKEL, Nick pass incomplete to GAITHER, Bailey, PENALTY AF pass interference (PALM, Elisha) 15 yards to the SJSU28, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 10 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Starkel pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 3 yds to the SJSt 41

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 3 yds to the SJSt 44

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Elijah Fischer punt for 36 yds, downed at the AFA 20

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 24

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the AFA 25

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.09

Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 13 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Nick Starkel pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.72

Kairee Robinson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kairee Robinson) to the AFA 45

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 18Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 4 yds to the AFA 39

3rd & 14Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.56

Nick Starkel pass intercepted Elisha Palm return for no gain to the AFA 11

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.55

Jordan Gidrey run for 12 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 5 yds to the AFA 31

4th & 2Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.11

CJ McNeal run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 47

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.09

Brandon Lewis run for 8 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brandon Lewis run for 5 yds to the SJSt 34

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the SJSt 32

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Timothy Jackson run for 8 yds to the SJSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.65

Brandon Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 26

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Brandon Lewis run for 6 yds to the SJSt 20

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.72

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 17 yds to the SJSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the SJSt 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the SJSt 1

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -4.21

Jordan Gidrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 2

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 8

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the SJSt 11

3rd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.28

Nick Starkel pass complete to Tyler Nevens for 3 yds to the SJSt 14 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.39

Timothy Jackson run for 9 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Matthew Murla run for 2 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 48

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the SJSt 49

4th & 4Punt+2 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 35 yds , Bailey Gaither returns for 2 yds to the SJSt 47 SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, Offensive holding (8 Yards) to the SJSt 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.46

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 12 yds to the SJSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Isaiah Holiness run for 3 yds to the SJSt 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 4 yds to the SJSt 27

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.09

Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Isaiah Holiness run for 4 yds to the SJSt 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +3.21

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 52 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nick Nash run for 5 yds to the AFA 8

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the AFA 7

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.73

Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 2 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bailey Gaither at the SJSt 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Isaiah Holiness run for 4 yds to the SJSt 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.31

Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 8 yds to the SJSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Isaiah Holiness run for no gain to the SJSt 47

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Nick Nash run for 1 yd to the SJSt 48

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Elisha Palm

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Elijah Fischer punt for 47 yds, downed at the AFA 5

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 11

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 14 Timothy Jackson fumbled, forced by Kyle Harmon, recovered by SJSt Tre Jenkins

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.52

Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 17

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Hamilton for 6 yds to the AFA 11

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.96

Nick Starkel pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Gidrey run for 4 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.11

Jordan Gidrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 38

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.24

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.23

Brandon Lewis run for 18 yds to the SJSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Brandon Lewis run for 3 yds to the SJSt 34

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.29

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 34 yds for a TD SCHUETTPELZ-ROH kick attempt good, PENALTY SJSU offside (WEBB, Tre) 2 yards to the SJSU1, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SJSt 8

2nd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.96

Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 14 yds to the SJSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Kairee Robinson run for 2 yds to the SJSt 24

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.72

Nick Starkel pass complete to Tre Walker for 14 yds to the SJSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.81

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the SJSt 33

2nd & 15Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.76

Nick Starkel pass complete to Bailey Gaither for 15 yds to the SJSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, delay of game (Nick Starkel) to the SJSt 43

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither

2nd & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.13

Nick Starkel pass complete to Isaiah Holiness for 14 yds to the AFA 43

3rd & 1Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Nick Starkel pass complete to Dominick Mazotti for 13 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Isaiah Holiness run for 1 yd to the AFA 29

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Bailey Gaither, broken up by Grant Donaldson

3rd & 9Penalty+10 yds

STARKEL, Nick pass incomplete to GAITHER, Bailey, PENALTY AF holding (EURE, David) 10 yards to the AF19, 1ST DOWN SJSU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Isaiah Holiness run for 5 yds to the AFA 14

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Isaiah Holiness run for 1 yd to the AFA 13

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Kairee Robinson run for 1 yd to the AFA 12

4th & 3Field Goal Good+30 yds

Matt Mercurio 30 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 19

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Daniel Morris

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 53 yds, downed at the SJSt 28

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.93

Kairee Robinson run for 6 yds to the SJSt 34 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Alec Mock) to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Kairee Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 48

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Kairee Robinson run for 3 yds to the AFA 49

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kairee Robinson run for 4 yds to the AFA 45

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Elijah Fischer punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 9 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson, broken up by Tre White

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.61

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson, broken up by Jordan Cobbs

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 7 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.41

Matthew Murla run for 15 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 7 yds to the SJSt 45

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.43

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 6 yds to the SJSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the SJSt 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 5 yds to the SJSt 30

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.40

Bo Gross run for 3 yds to the SJSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 26

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SJSt 25

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
24 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
38%
8 plays
50%
10 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
88%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays

San José State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
24 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
33%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play