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← Back to GamesNov 14, 2020Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Indiana by 6.7

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 30%

Market (consensus)

Michigan State +7.5

Edge: Michigan State +7.5 (0.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 14, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
IndianaIndiana
14100024
Michigan StateMichigan State
00000

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-140-170-24
Michigan StateIndiana

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20INDMSINDMSINDMSINDMSINDMSINDMSINDMSINDMSMSINDMSINDMSINDMSINDMSINDTO628ydPUNT624ydPUNT631ydTO10ydTD750ydTO22ydTD216ydPUNT3-5ydTO636ydTO10ydFG722ydPUNT431ydTD579ydDOWNS717ydMISS730ydEND18ydPUNT615ydPUNT837ydPUNT3-10ydDOWNS423ydDOWNS1057ydPUNT621ydTO322ydDOWNS48ydPUNT410ydUncategorized1035yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Indiana and Michigan State
StatisticIndianaMichigan State
Passing25-3813-27
Pass Yards320131
Rush Yards11460
Total Yards434191
Turnovers24
3rd Down8-173-12
Penalties4-386-61
Possession37:5621:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Indiana
passing
Michael Penix Jr.
25/38, 320 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Stevie Scott
23 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ty Fryfogle
11 REC, 200 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
10/20, 110 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Connor Heyward
5 CAR, 27 YDS
receiving
Jayden Reed
7 REC, 63 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 8 yds to the Ind 33

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to David Ellis for 3 yds to the MchSt 47

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the MchSt 47

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -1.65

Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for 15 yds to the MchSt 35

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.66

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 14 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the Ind 42

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 4 yds to the Ind 38

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 41 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by MchSt Rocky Lombardi

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 5

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Mackenzie Nworah) to the Ind 2

1st & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.16

Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the Ind 2

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.06

Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 3

3rd & 12Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.42

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 24 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Sampson James run for 2 yds to the Ind 29

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds to the Ind 36

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.76

Sampson James run for no gain to the Ind 36

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Haydon Whitehead punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 28

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.14

Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Tiawan Mullen return for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.97

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 18 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.12

Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 40

2nd & 18Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.86

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 15 yds to the MchSt 25

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.59

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Javon Swinton for 12 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop Philyor

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to David Ellis for 5 yds to the MchSt 8

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.81

Stevie Scott III 8 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)

3rd & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Jared Smolar kickoff for 55 yds , Jayden Reed return for 19 yds to the MICHIGANST 46 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Cal Haladay) to the MchSt 14. Cal Haladay ejected for targeting.

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 17

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -0.16

Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 16 Anthony Williams Jr. fumbled, forced by Thomas Allen, recovered by Ind James Head Jr.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Dominique Long

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.90

Ty Fryfogle 16 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jordon Simmons, broken up by Reese Taylor

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.19

Rocky Lombardi sacked by Jerome Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 6

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 45 yds, downed at the Ind 49

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.22

Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 10 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 9 yds to the MchSt 29

2nd & 1Penalty-15 yds

Penix Jr., Michael pass complete to Hendershot, Peyton for 19 yards to the MICHIGANST10, PENALTY INDIANA personal foul 15 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.

2nd & 16Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.56

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 27 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -4.23

Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for 15 yds to the MchSt 15

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Tiawan Mullen return for 2 yds to the MchSt 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Sampson James run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton Hendershot

3rd & 9Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 19 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle

2nd & 5Penalty-15 yds

Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Fryfogle, Ty, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Fryfogle, Ty) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST20, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.81

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 15 yds to the MchSt 5

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Charles Campbell 21 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.08

Payton Thorne run for 38 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jahz Watts, broken up by Alfred Bryant

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ricky White

3rd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.30

Payton Thorne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 42

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Davion Williams) to the Ind 47

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 4 yds to the Ind 25

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.90

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 7 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 4 yds to the Ind 36

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.00

Sampson James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 35

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +6.67

Ty Fryfogle 65 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the MchSt 45

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.44

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Devon Matthews

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +1.52

Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the Ind 48 Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by Reese Taylor, recovered by MchSt Jalen Nailor for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Ind 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the Ind 41

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ricky White

4th & 3Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.67

Payton Thorne sacked by Jerome Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 49

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.67

Stevie Scott III run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.35

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 11 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the MchSt 23

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop Philyor

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton Hendershot

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+41 yds

Charles Campbell 41 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Connor Heyward run for 8 yds to the MchSt 31

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Heyward, Connor rush for 8 yards to the MICHIGANST44, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Duplain, J.D.) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST26, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.33

Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 25

2nd & 21Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.90

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 15 yds to the MchSt 40

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds, downed at the Ind 4

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Sampson James run for 8 yds to the Ind 12

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.12

Sampson James run for 9 yds to the Ind 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Sampson James run for 1 yd to the Ind 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 1 yd to the Ind 23

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.95

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 13 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Sampson James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 34

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Stevie Scott III

3rd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 7 yds to the Ind 41

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds, downed at the MchSt 17

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 20

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.28

Payton Thorne sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 13 yards to the MchSt 7

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 21 yds, downed at the MchSt 28

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Henderson, Xavier) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Sampson James run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 6 yds to the MchSt 5

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.09

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to A.J. Barner

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.65

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 17 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.81

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the Ind 48

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.16

Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Adam Berghorst

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.00

Payton Thorne pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 9 yds to the Ind 37

3rd & 1Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 38

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -2.10

Connor Heyward run for no gain to the Ind 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 40

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 43

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.29

Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 9 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 41

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop Philyor

4th & 3Punt+36 yds

Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds for a touchback INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards)

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 27 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (AJ Arcuri) to the MchSt 47

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 47

2nd & 15Pass Interception Return+53 ydsPPA -1.14

Payton Thorne pass intercepted Reese Taylor return for 53 yds to the MchSt 9

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.21

Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Bjorson

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.40

Connor Heyward run for 14 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Bryant Fitzgerald

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 18

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.20

Payton Thorne sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 12

4th & 14Punt+18 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Reese Taylor returns for 18 yds to the MchSt 47

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.60

Stevie Scott III run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the MchSt 23

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 21

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 15

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.68

Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Sampson James run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.44

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 12

Situational Analysis

Indiana

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
43%
14 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
83%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
33%
3 plays

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
20 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
33%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
33%
3 plays