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← Back to GamesOct 25, 2020Week 8
Texas StateTexas State
14
-Final
52
BYUBYU

House Prediction

Model Margin

BYU by 33.8

Home Win Probability

BYU 97%

Market (consensus)

BYU -30

Edge: BYU -30 (3.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 25, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas StateTexas State
700714
BYUBYU
142114352

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-77-714-721-728-742-749-749-1452-14
BYUTexas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSBYUTSBYUTSBYUTSBYUTSBYUTSBYUTSBYUTSTSBYUTSBYUTSBYUTSBYUTSTD875ydTD1086ydPUNT525ydTD790ydPUNT32ydTD660ydPUNT35ydTD1171ydPUNT626ydTO3-2ydDOWNS44ydTD794ydEND11ydTD1076ydTD3-6ydPUNT622ydTO636ydPUNT35ydPUNT625ydTD896ydFG864ydTO33ydPUNT35ydEND312yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas State and BYU
StatisticTexas StateBYU
Passing16-3025-36
Pass Yards153352
Rush Yards117228
Total Yards270580
Turnovers22
3rd Down2-119-15
Penalties6-553-30
Possession25:4934:11

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas State
passing
Brady McBride
16/30, 153 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Brock Sturges
8 CAR, 58 YDS
receiving
Marcell Barbee
3 REC, 48 YDS, 2 TD
defense
BYU
passing
Zach Wilson
19/25, 287 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Tyler Allgeier
12 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Dax Milne
4 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Max Tooley
1.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 18 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.76

Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 19 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 22

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.22

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the BYU 10

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

McBride, Brady pass complete to Sheread, Jah'Marae for 4 yards to the BYU6, PENALTY TEXSTATE holding 10 yards to the BYU20, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the BYU 19

3rd & 16Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.87

Marcell Barbee 19 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 11 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.01

Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 22 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.86

Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 16 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the TexSt 24

3rd & 1Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.32

Zach Wilson pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 9 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.67

Zach Wilson run for 10 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 1 yd to the TexSt 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Lopini Katoa 4 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 3 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.91

Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 15 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brady McBride pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 10

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BYU 17

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 19

3rd & 1Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.50

Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 26 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Wilson, Zach pass pass intended for Milne, Dax intercepted by Morris, Jarron at the BYU5, Morris, Jarron return 0 yards to the BYU5, PENALTY TEXSTATE pass interference (Morris, Jarron) 15 yards to the TEXSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the TexSt 40

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 7 yds to the TexSt 33

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax Milne

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +4.55

Keanu Hill 33 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Russell Baker) to the TexSt 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel

4th & 8Punt+11 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 11 yds to the BYU 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.57

Zach Wilson pass complete to Hank Tuipulotu for 20 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Zach Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.83

Zach Wilson pass complete to Keanu Hill for 6 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.22

Neil Pau'u pass complete to Zach Wilson for 16 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Tyler Allgeier run for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Brady McBride pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'u

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.14

Chris Jackson run for 14 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 11 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.71

Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 49

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Zach Wilson pass complete to Miles Davis for 6 yds to the TexSt 43

3rd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.18

Tyler Allgeier run for 14 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.24

Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 15 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the TexSt 9

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Zach Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.36

Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

McBride, Brady pass complete to Sturges, Brock for loss of 2 yards to the TEXSTATE23, PENALTY BYU personal foul 15 yards to the TEXSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Brady McBride pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 3 yds to the TexSt 43

3rd & 7Penalty+10 yds

McBride, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the BYU 44

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

McBride, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXSTATE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BYU49, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brady McBride pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah Haydel

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Talmage Gunther at the BYU 12

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.65

Dax Milne run for 13 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Sione Finau run for 5 yds to the BYU 30

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-20 ydsPPA -1.02

TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the BYU 10 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSt Hal Vinson

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 11

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 5 yds to the BYU 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.87

Brady McBride pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 13

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 15

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 4 yds to the BYU 28

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BYU 30

3rd & 4Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.18

Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 25 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 45 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 8

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Sione Finau

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Miles Davis run for 4 yds to the BYU 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax Milne

4th & 6Penalty+15 yds

Rehkow, Ryan punt 32 yards to the TEXSTATE39, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TEXSTATE roughing the kicker 15 yards to the BYU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax Milne

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.23

Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the TexSt 30

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +3.00

Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 30 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Brady McBride pass incomplete

3rd & 11Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 19

3rd & 16Interception Return Touchdown+32 ydsPPA -6.69

Brady McBride pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Kaufusi return for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 6 yds to the TexSt 33

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.54

Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the TexSt 49

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.93

Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 47

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 13 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Baylor Romney pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Baylor Romney run for 4 yds to the BYU 30

3rd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.80

Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 18 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -2.99

Baylor Romney pass intercepted Brayden Stringer return for 5 yds to the TexSt 46

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brady McBride pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 5 yds to the BYU 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for no gain to the BYU 49

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Talmage Gunther at the BYU 15

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Sione Finau run for 6 yds to the BYU 21

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.04

Kody Epps run for 13 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Baylor Romney pass complete to Kody Epps for 11 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.38

Chris Jackson run for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 38

2nd & 17Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Baylor Romney pass complete to Sione Finau for 1 yd to the BYU 39

3rd & 16Penalty-5 yds

BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 34

3rd & 21Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Baylor Romney pass complete to Chris Jackson for 6 yds to the BYU 40

4th & 15Punt+4 yds

Ryan Rehkow punt for 60 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 4 yds to the TexSt 4

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6

2nd & 8Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.36

Brock Sturges run for 34 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Calvin Hill run for 11 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 6 yds to the BYU 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.64

Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 14 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 10 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 20

2nd & 11Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.05

Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Chris Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Sione Finau run for 9 yds to the BYU 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sione Finau run for no gain to the BYU 34

4th & 1Rush+49 ydsPPA +4.22

Ryan Rehkow run for 49 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Chris Jackson run for 5 yds to the TexSt 12

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Sione Finau run for 1 yd to the TexSt 11

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Kody Epps

4th & 4Field Goal Good+28 yds

Jake Oldroyd 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jeremiah Haydel run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -0.07

Brady McBride pass intercepted Pepe Tanuvasa return for 5 yds to the BYU 49

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Baylor Romney pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Talmage Gunther run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Rehkow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 7

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19

Situational Analysis

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
31%
26 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
71%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

BYU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
56%
34 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
67%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
67%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays