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← Back to GamesJan 12, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 6.9

Home Win Probability

Alabama 64%

Market (consensus)

Alabama -9.5

Edge: Ohio State +9.5 (2.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Jan 12, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Ohio StateOhio State
7107024
AlabamaAlabama
72810752

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-07-714-721-1728-1738-1745-2452-24
AlabamaOhio State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAOSALAPUNT33ydTD1278ydTD875ydTD1175ydPUNT731ydTO27ydTD119ydTD575ydFG969ydTD575ydPUNT34ydTD360ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT518ydEND1-1ydFG1675ydTD375ydTD875ydDOWNS518ydTD643ydDOWNS1769ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-5ydEND835yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Ohio State and Alabama
StatisticOhio StateAlabama
Passing17-3336-45
Pass Yards194464
Rush Yards147157
Total Yards341621
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-146-11
Penalties4-296-44
Possession22:2837:32

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Ohio State
passing
Justin Fields
17/33, 194 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Justin Fields
6 CAR, 67 YDS
receiving
Chris Olave
8 REC, 69 YDS
defense
Alabama
passing
Mac Jones
36/45, 464 YDS, 5 TD
rushing
Najee Harris
22 CAR, 79 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
DeVonta Smith
12 REC, 215 YDS, 3 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Trey Sermon

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Justin Fields run for 1 yd to the OhSt 28

4th & 7Punt+49 yds

Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie III

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.52

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 22 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.96

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 12 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the OhSt 42

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.15

Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 9 yds to the OhSt 20

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.90

Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 22

3rd & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.82

Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 15 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta Smith

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the OhSt 5

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 4 yds to the OhSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 3 yds to the OhSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.78

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 20 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Master Teague III run for no gain to the Alab 44

2nd & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.06

Justin Fields pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 36 yds to the Alab 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Master Teague III run for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.73

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 32 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.51

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.70

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the OhSt 22

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 3 yds to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the OhSt 18

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the OhSt 12

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 2 yds to the OhSt 10

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.77

Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the OhSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the OhSt 2

2nd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Najee Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Justin Fields pass complete to Jameson Williams for 14 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.79

Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Wilson) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the Alab 44

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Master Teague III

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Drue Chrisman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.59

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.02

Mac Jones sacked by Baron Browning for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 19 Mac Jones fumbled, forced by Baron Browning, recovered by OhSt Baron Browning , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Williams, Jameson, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Jobe, Josh) 15 yards to the ALABAMA4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Master Teague III run for 4 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 16 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.64

Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Mac Jones run for 7 yds to the OhSt 26

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.53

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 26 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.96

Justin Fields run for 28 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +0.85

Master Teague III run for 29 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the Alab 12

2nd & 7Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.68

Master Teague III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 16

3rd & 11Penalty+8 yds

Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Ruckert, Jeremy, PENALTY ALABAMA personal foul (Battle, Jordan) 8 yards to the ALABAMA8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST. Jordan Battle ejected for targeting.

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the Alab 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Luke Farrell

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Jake Seibert 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie III

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Jones, Mac pass complete to Metchie III, John for 11 yards to the ALABAMA36, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass (Leatherwood, Alex) 5 yards to the ALABAMA20, NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.00

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 16 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.20

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 44 yds to the OhSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+9 yds

Jones, Mac pass incomplete to Metchie III, John, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Banks, Sevyn) 9 yards to the OHIOST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Master Teague III

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Justin Fields pass complete to Marcus Crowley for 4 yds to the OhSt 29

4th & 6Punt+19 yds

Drue Chrisman punt for 50 yds , DeVonta Smith returns for 19 yds to the Alab 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.21

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 14 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 4 yds to the OhSt 42

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.66

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Marcus Crowley run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Fields, Justin rush for 3 yards to the OHIOST31, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Jones, Matthew) 10 yards to the OHIOST18, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Marcus Crowley run for 3 yds to the OhSt 21

3rd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Marcus Crowley run for 2 yds to the OhSt 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Drue Chrisman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by DeVonta Smith at the Alab 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 6 yds to the Alab 34

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.13

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 7 yds to the OhSt 49

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Chris Owens) to the Alab 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Xavier Williams

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta Smith

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 18

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.58

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 17

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Najee Harris run for 13 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Mac Jones pass incomplete to DeVonta Smith

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.38

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 9 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 13 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.61

Mac Jones sacked by Antwuan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 28

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.79

Mac Jones pass complete to Xavier Williams for 12 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 5 yds to the OhSt 11

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Miller Forristall

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.98

Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the OhSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Najee Harris run for no gain to the OhSt 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Mac Jones pass incomplete to John Metchie III

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 3 yds to the OhSt 2

4th & 2Field Goal Good+20 yds

Will Reichard 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 17 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Christopher Allen) to the OhSt 47

1st & 5Rush+33 ydsPPA +0.51

Justin Fields run for 33 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 20 yds for a TD (Jake Seibert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Mac Jones pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 6 yds to the Alab 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.82

Mac Jones pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 22 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Mac Jones run for 10 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31

2nd & 6Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.53

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 21 yds to the OhSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the OhSt 5

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Mac Jones pass complete to Slade Bolden for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 11 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the OhSt 38

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Justin Fields run for 4 yds to the OhSt 42

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 45

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.75

Master Teague III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 43

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Najee Harris run for no gain to the OhSt 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.72

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 27 yds to the OhSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the OhSt 14

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.06

Mac Jones pass complete to John Metchie III for 10 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the OhSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Najee Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Marcus Crowley run for no gain to the OhSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.46

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 22

3rd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.10

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 14 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 10 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jameson Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Justin Fields pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds to the Alab 49

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Nicholas Petit-Frere) to the OhSt 46

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.14

Justin Fields pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Marcus Crowley run for 2 yds to the Alab 37

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Marcus Crowley run for 4 yds to the Alab 33

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.97

Justin Fields run for 7 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 6 yds to the Alab 20

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 yds

Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 8 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Christian Barmore) to the Alab 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Marcus Crowley

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Chris Olave

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.87

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Julian Fleming

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 6

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 10

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Najee Harris

4th & 6Punt+3 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 40 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 3 yds to the Alab 47

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.35

Justin Fields sacked by Christian Barmore for a loss of 6 yards to the OhSt 47

2nd & 16Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Justin Fields pass complete to Master Teague III for 1 yd to the OhSt 48

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jameson Williams

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Drue Chrisman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 18

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.88

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 35

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.09

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 40

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 42

3rd & 9Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.98

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 46

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 47

Situational Analysis

Ohio State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
38%
24 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
31%
13 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
3 plays
54%
39 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
75%
8 plays
64%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
2 plays