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← Back to GamesOct 10, 2020Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kentucky by 5.7

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 63%

Market (consensus)

Kentucky -3.5

Edge: Kentucky -3.5 (2.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 10, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
00202
KentuckyKentucky
01401024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-014-224-2
KentuckyMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENMSPUNT728ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT69ydPUNT513ydPUNT36ydMISS1024ydTD562ydPUNT829ydPUNT35ydTO647ydTD12ydTO1371ydDOWNS49ydTO29ydTO517ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT32ydSAF6-20ydPUNT516ydPUNT31ydTO623ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT30ydPUNT733ydTD30ydDOWNS814ydFG522ydTO34yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Kentucky
StatisticMississippi StateKentucky
Passing45-708-21
Pass Yards27573
Rush Yards2084
Total Yards295157
Turnovers61
3rd Down3-174-14
Penalties8-573-25
Possession34:4925:11

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
K.J. Costello
36/55, 232 YDS, 4 INT
rushing
Kylin Hill
7 CAR, 17 YDS
receiving
Kylin Hill
15 REC, 79 YDS
defense
Kentucky
passing
Terry Wilson
8/20, 73 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Terry Wilson
13 CAR, 50 YDS
receiving
Josh Ali
2 REC, 22 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the Kent 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 17 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY UK delay of game 5 yards to the MS47, NO PLAY.

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 42 yds, downed at the MisSt 5

1st & 10Penalty-2 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (K. Johnson) 2 yards to the MS3, NO PLAY.

1st & 12Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.16

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the MisSt 4

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

K.J. Costello pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

K.J. Costello pass incomplete, broken up by Jamin Davis

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the MisSt 46

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Terry Wilson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr.

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.59

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Terry Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus Murphy

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.35

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 37

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr.

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 26 yds, downed at the MisSt 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the MisSt 17

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.22

K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 4 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the MisSt 29

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (Charles Cross) 5 yards to the MS24, NO PLAY.

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers, broken up by Cedrick Dort Jr.

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 65 yds, downed at the Kent 11

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (Landon Young) 5 yards to the UK6, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh Ali, broken up by Emmanuel Forbes

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 9

3rd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.08

Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 8 yds to the Kent 17

4th & 4Punt+12 yds

Max Duffy punt for 57 yds , Austin Williams returns for 12 yds to the MisSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 8 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.71

K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 10 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.35

K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Kent 42

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.44

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 12 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.37

Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 35

2nd & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.56

K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Kent 33

3rd & 13Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY MS false start (Cameron Gardner) 5 yards to the UK38, NO PLAY.

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Kylin Hill

4th & 18Field Goal Missed+56 yds

Brandon Ruiz 56 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 41

2nd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.62

Terry Wilson sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 35

3rd & 13Rush+51 ydsPPA +4.45

Terry Wilson run for 51 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.72

Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.07

K.J. Costello pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.34

K.J. Costello pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.56

K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion-15 ydsPPA -1.98

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Tyrell Ajian MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 34

2nd & 27Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.52

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 12 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Kent 46

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Reed Bowman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Kent 15

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 18

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh Ali

4th & 5Punt+3 yds

Max Duffy punt for 52 yds , Austin Williams returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 6 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.03

K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 9 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Kent 48

2nd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.46

K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Brandin Echols) to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

K.J. Costello run for 5 yds to the Kent 20

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return+76 ydsPPA -4.38

K.J. Costello pass intercepted Joshua Paschal return for 76 yds to the MisSt 2

1st & 2Penalty0 yds

PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

K.J. Costello pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.36

K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 10 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron Gardner

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Jaden Walley, broken up by Quinton Bohanna

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.97

K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the Kent 38

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.78

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST down

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 5 yds to the Kent 27

3rd & 2Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.43

K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 23 yds to the Kent 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 4Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.67

K.J. Costello pass intercepted, touchback. Jamin Davis return for no gain

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 34

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Cameron Gardner

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -4.29

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25 Asim Rose fumbled, forced by Fred Peters, recovered by MisSt Fred Peters

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

K.J. Costello pass complete to Kylin Hill for 3 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.73

K.J. Costello pass intercepted Kelvin Joseph return for no gain to the Kent 31

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.24

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 28

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.12

Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 1 yd to the Kent 29

4th & 12Punt+10 yds

Max Duffy punt for 46 yds , Austin Williams returns for 10 yds to the MisSt 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Malik Heath

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

K.J. Costello pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the MisSt 40

3rd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.86

K.J. Costello run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (K.J. Costello) to the MisSt 37

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 63 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Terry Wilson pass complete to Brenden Bates for 14 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 48

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Keaton Upshaw

4th & 8Safety-48 ydsPPA -2.34

Team run for a loss of 48 yards for a SAFETY KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal kicking ( Yards) declined

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.49

Will Rogers pass complete to Kylin Hill for 5 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Will Rogers pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 5 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Will Rogers pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 1 yd to the MisSt 32

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 66 yds, downed at the Kent 2

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the Kent 3

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin Rigg

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris

4th & 9Punt+17 yds

Max Duffy punt for 55 yds , Austin Williams returns for 17 yds to the Kent 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Will Rogers pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Kent 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Will Rogers pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the Kent 36

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Will Rogers pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton

4th & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.44

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Will Rogers pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 5 yds to the Kent 18

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.41

Will Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Jamar Watson return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 16

2nd & 14Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 4 yds to the Kent 20

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.19

Terry Wilson sacked by Nathan Pickering and Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 10

4th & 20Punt+1 yds

Max Duffy punt for 43 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 11 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the MisSt 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Kylin Hill, broken up by J.J. Weaver

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

4th & 10Punt+57 yds

Tucker Day punt for 62 yds for a touchback MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Kent 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.10

Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 12 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.83

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh Ali, broken up by Martin Emerson

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Terry Wilson run for no gain to the MisSt 40

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 2

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton, broken up by DeAndre Square

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

K.J. Costello pass incomplete to Austin Williams, broken up by Jordan Wright

3rd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+8 ydsPPA -6.67

K.J. Costello pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Wright return for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

K.J. Costello pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.44

K.J. Costello pass complete to Malik Heath for 5 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.45

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Malik Heath) to the MisSt 40

1st & 17Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

K.J. Costello pass complete to Cameron Gardner for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

K.J. Costello pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.27

K.J. Costello sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 46

4th & 11Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.09

K.J. Costello sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 39

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.49

JuTahn McClain run for 17 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Joey Gatewood run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 24

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Joey Gatewood pass incomplete, broken up by Emmanuel Forbes

3rd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Joey Gatewood run for 7 yds to the MisSt 17

4th & 5Field Goal Good+35 yds

Matt Ruffolo 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Will Rogers pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Rogers pass intercepted D'Eryk Jackson return for 5 yds to the MisSt 37

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
55%
29 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
36%
11 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
40%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
33%
9 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play