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← Back to GamesOct 3, 2020Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kentucky by 10.9

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 74%

Market (consensus)

Kentucky -7

Edge: Kentucky -7 (3.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 3, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
Ole MissOle Miss
77714742
KentuckyKentucky
14777641

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-714-714-1428-1428-2128-2835-3541-35
KentuckyOle Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENOMKENKENOMTD875ydTO373ydPUNT31ydTD429ydPUNT31ydTD880ydTD1075ydPUNT39ydPUNT726ydPUNT4-1ydPUNT523ydTD983ydEND16ydTD1075ydTD475ydMISS756ydDOWNS1167ydPUNT38ydTD554ydDOWNS828ydTD353ydTD1275ydPUNT39ydEND12ydTD325ydTD425yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Ole Miss and Kentucky
StatisticOle MissKentucky
Passing24-2914-18
Pass Yards320151
Rush Yards139408
Total Yards459559
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-126-11
Penalties5-338-81
Possession23:5536:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Ole Miss
passing
Matt Corral
24/29, 320 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Matt Corral
13 CAR, 51 YDS
receiving
Jonathan Mingo
8 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Kentucky
passing
Terry Wilson
14/18, 151 YDS
rushing
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
17 CAR, 133 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Josh Ali
7 REC, 88 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.18

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 31 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Kent 31

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the Kent 29

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.11

Matt Corral pass complete to Tylan Knight for 8 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 5 yds to the Kent 16

2nd & 5Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.62

Jerrion Ealy run for 15 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+72 ydsPPA +4.61

Asim Rose run for 72 yds to the Miss 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Miss 1

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -5.10

Asim Rose run for no gain to the Miss 2 Asim Rose fumbled, forced by Ashanti Cistrunk, recovered by Miss Ryder Anderson

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Miss 3

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 5

3rd & 7Penalty-2 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the Miss 3

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jerrion Ealy

4th & 9Punt+17 yds

Mac Brown punt for 43 yds , Josh Ali returns for 17 yds to the Miss 29

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Miss 25

2nd & 6Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.78

Kavosiey Smoke run for 19 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds to the Miss 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], PENALTY OM false start (Kenny Yeboah) 5 yards to the OM41, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.26

Matt Corral sacked by Marquan McCall and J.J. Weaver for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 47

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Kent 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.06

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 8 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.68

Asim Rose run for 18 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.17

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 21 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.65

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 24 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 4

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Asim Rose run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 4 yds to the Miss 29

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Miss 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.38

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 14 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 12 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Kent 40

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 37

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.81

Matt Corral run for 4 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.35

Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the Kent 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Kent 14

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 14 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 5 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.77

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 13 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 30

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Miss 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.83

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Matt Corral pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Matt Corral pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.62

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 41

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 59 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -0.91

Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 2 yds to the Kent 22 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Kent 12

1st & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris

2nd & 18Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 16

3rd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 19

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 55 yds, downed at the Miss 26

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 33

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 35

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 30

3rd & 6Penalty+10 yds

[SHOT], Matt Corral pass complete to Snoop Conner for 6 yards to the OM36 (Tyrell Ajian), PENALTY UK holding (Cedrick Dort) 10 yards to the OM40, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Elijah Moore run for no gain to the Miss 40

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 7 yds to the Miss 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 2 yds to the Miss 49

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 34 yds, downed at the Kent 17

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kavosiey Smoke run for 5 yds to the Kent 22

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

[SHOT], Terry Wilson rush for 20 yards to the UK42, PENALTY UK holding (Luke Fortner) 10 yards to the UK12, NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Penalty+11 yds

[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, PENALTY OM pass interference (Jacquez Jones) 11 yards to the UK23, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 31

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.57

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 36

2nd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.32

Terry Wilson pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 5 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST down

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.81

Terry Wilson run for 22 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the Miss 25

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Asim Rose run for 5 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 34

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.34

Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Terry Wilson run for 18 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 36

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.17

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Miss 23

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Miss 22

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.81

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.46

Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 28 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 8 yds to the Kent 24

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.34

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 24 yds for a TD KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.33

Terry Wilson run for 31 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 47

2nd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.24

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 15 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the Miss 26

2nd & 4Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.46

Terry Wilson sacked by Jamar Richardson for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 31

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris, broken up by Jamar Richardson

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+49 yds

Matt Ruffolo 49 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.06

Snoop Conner run for 23 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore

2nd & 10Penalty+6 yds

[SHOT], Matt Corral pass incomplete to Dannis Jackson, PENALTY UK pass interference (D. Robinson) 6 yards to the UK40, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.39

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 18 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 5 yds to the Kent 17

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

[SHOT], Matt Corral rush for 5 yards to the UK12, PENALTY OM holding (Nick Broeker) 10 yards to the UK27, NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.70

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 11 yds to the Kent 16

3rd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.70

Matt Corral run for 14 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Kent 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Matt Corral run for no gain to the Kent 2

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Kent 1

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -4.21

Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 2

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Asim Rose run for no gain to the Kent 2

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 4

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Kent 10

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 46

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.00

Matt Corral run for 14 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Matt Corral run for no gain to the Kent 40

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Kent 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.40

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 19 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 16 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Terry Wilson run for 8 yds to the Kent 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Terry Wilson run for 11 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.13

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 17 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Terry Wilson run for no gain to the Miss 37

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Miss 34

3rd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 35

4th & 8Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.63

Terry Wilson sacked by MoMo Sanogo for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +1.57

Matt Corral pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 41 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

[SHOT], Matt Corral pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo, PENALTY UK pass interference (Cedrick Dort) 10 yards to the UK2, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Kent 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to DeMarcus Harris

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.35

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for no gain to the Kent 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.27

Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 14 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Terry Wilson run for 2 yds to the Kent 41

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Terry Wilson run for 6 yds to the Kent 47

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.35

Terry Wilson pass complete to Clevan Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the Miss 43

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 8 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.32

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 13 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-8 yds

[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Keaton Upshaw, PENALTY UK intentional grounding (Terry Wilson) 8 yards to the OM30, NO PLAY.

2nd & 18Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.87

Terry Wilson pass complete to Akeem Hayes for 28 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Terry Wilson run for 1 yd to the Miss 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23

2nd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.37

Matt Corral sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 18

3rd & 17Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.53

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 16 yds to the Miss 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 12

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Miss 19

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.01

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Terry Wilson run for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Matt Corral run for 5 yds to the Kent 20 Timeout KENTUCKY, clock 00:00

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+13 yds

[SHOT], Matt Corral pass incomplete to D. Drummond, PENALTY UK pass interference (Kelvin Joseph) 13 yards to the UK2, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.00

Snoop Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 3

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Matt Corral pass complete to Elijah Moore for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

Situational Analysis

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
25%
4 plays
59%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
63%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
69%
32 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
8 plays
38%
8 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play