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← Back to GamesNov 1, 2020Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 11

Home Win Probability

Virginia 20%

Market (consensus)

Virginia +7.5

Edge: North Carolina -7.5 (3.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 1, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
101071441
VirginiaVirginia
131414344

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428426-76-1013-1320-2034-2041-2744-3444-41
VirginiaNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRTD475ydTD1075ydFG742ydTD275ydFG1662ydPUNT30ydTD176ydTD875ydMISS631ydPUNT811ydTD320ydEND552ydTD1175ydTO48ydTD530ydTD1175ydTO229ydTD648ydFG1558ydTD475ydEND79yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and Virginia
StatisticNorth CarolinaVirginia
Passing23-2812-22
Pass Yards443208
Rush Yards93210
Total Yards536418
Turnovers21
3rd Down6-103-11
Penalties6-695-38
Possession25:2634:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Sam Howell
23/28, 443 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Michael Carter
9 CAR, 64 YDS
receiving
Dyami Brown
11 REC, 240 YDS, 3 TD
defense
Virginia
passing
Brennan Armstrong
12/22, 208 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Shane Simpson
8 CAR, 70 YDS
receiving
Shane Simpson
1 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.43

Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +4.18

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 54 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 17 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the Virg 46

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 49

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.10

Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Keytaon Thompson run for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.72

Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Brennan Armstrong run for 23 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception-7 ydsPPA -1.15

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 18

2nd & 17Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.17

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.35

Michael Carter run for 38 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 21

2nd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.19

Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 26

3rd & 11Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.30

Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 33

4th & 18Field Goal Good+51 yds

Grayson Atkins 51 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Billy Kemp IV run for 4 yds to the Virg 29

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +6.19

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Shane Simpson for 71 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett Walston

3rd & 15Penalty+15 yds

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kyler McMichael, PENALTY VA pass interference (De'Vante Cross) 15 yards to the NC35, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 44

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.68

Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 7 yds to the Virg 40

2nd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.37

Michael Carter run for 15 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Virg 24

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the Virg 16

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Javonte Williams run for no gain to the Virg 16

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.64

Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Virg 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Virg 10

2nd & 8Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.96

Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the Virg 7 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 17

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the Virg 16

3rd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the Virg 13

4th & 11Field Goal Good+30 yds

Grayson Atkins 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Wayne Taulapapa run for 9 yds to the Virg 34

3rd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.01

Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 30

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Nash Griffin punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+76 ydsPPA +6.15

Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 76 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Virg 33

2nd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Shane Simpson run for 11 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Brennan Armstrong run for 11 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Shane Simpson, PENALTY NC pass interference (Tomon Fox) 15 yards to the NC30, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.65

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Jana

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete, broken up by Don Chapman

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +3.37

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 18 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 17 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.97

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 22 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 27

2nd & 11Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.11

Sam Howell sacked by Nick Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 34

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

4th & 18Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Grayson Atkins 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 39

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 41

3rd & 4Sack+8 ydsPPA +2.08

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Tomon Fox and Raymond Vohasek for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 34 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trey Morrison) to the Virg 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 39

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Jana

2nd & 20Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.59

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 21 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Terrell Jana

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Billy Kemp IV) to the NCaro 45

3rd & 15Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.18

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Tomari Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 46

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Nash Griffin punt for 33 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the NCaro 20 Rontavius Groves fumbled, recovered by Virg Tucker Finkelston

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Shane Simpson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 14

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.49

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 13 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 1 yd to the NCaro 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.53

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 36 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.05

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 29 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre Brown

2nd & 5Penalty+3 yds

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, PENALTY VA pass interference (Antonio Clary) 3 yards to the VA2, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -1.53

Sam Howell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 19 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by NCaro Javonte Williams

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the Virg 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 42

2nd & 7Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.99

Brennan Armstrong run for 16 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony Poljan

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.48

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 16 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Keytaon Thompson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the NCaro 11

2nd & 6Penalty+9 yds

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, PENALTY NC pass interference (Cam'Ron Kelly) 9 yards to the NC2, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCaro 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 9 yds to the NCaro 31

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38

2nd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.70

Sam Howell sacked by Charles Snowden for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 30 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by Virg Mandy Alonso , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 3 yds to the NCaro 27

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 22

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 21

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.83

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 17 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 8 yds to the NCaro 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.88

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 9 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.50

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.48

Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the Virg 30

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Michael Carter run for no gain to the Virg 30

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.29

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 9 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Virg 15 Javonte Williams fumbled, forced by Nick Jackson,

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.07

Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.35

Shane Simpson run for 29 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.82

Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Jeremiah Gemmel return for no gain to the Virg 48

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the Virg 46

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Nick Grant

3rd & 8Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.82

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 30 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Patrice Rene

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the Virg 13

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +3.01

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 30

2nd & 5Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.22

Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Don Chapman) to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Shane Simpson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 41

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.81

Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Shane Simpson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 30

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.40

Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, OF (Ladaeson Hollins) to the NCaro 21

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.12

Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brennan Armstrong run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 10

3rd & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.31

Brennan Armstrong sacked by Don Chapman for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 17

4th & 12Field Goal Good+35 yds

Brian Delaney 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 19 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +1.95

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 47 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the Virg 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Javonte Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Brennan Armstrong run for 3 yds to the Virg 38

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Virg 42

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Keytaon Thompson run for no gain to the Virg 42

4th & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.51

Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 46

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 45

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
55%
29 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
45%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
63%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
17%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
4 plays