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← Back to GamesOct 17, 2020Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 12.6

Home Win Probability

Florida State 19%

Market (consensus)

Florida State +13.5

Edge: Florida State +13.5 (0.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 17, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
0714728
Florida StateFlorida State
7240031

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-017-031-731-2131-28
Florida StateNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSNCFSPUNT518ydTD123ydPUNT38ydPUNT36ydPUNT634ydPUNT34ydPUNT839ydFG891ydDOWNS1150ydTD975ydTD37ydTD875ydTD575ydEND16ydMISS760ydDOWNS1074ydPUNT31ydTD449ydPUNT39ydTD584ydTO10ydMISS43ydMISS1153ydTD780ydPUNT36ydDOWNS737ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and Florida State
StatisticNorth CarolinaFlorida State
Passing20-368-19
Pass Yards374191
Rush Yards184241
Total Yards558432
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-124-12
Penalties6-4511-87
Possession33:1626:44

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Sam Howell
20/36, 374 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Javonte Williams
18 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Beau Corrales
4 REC, 141 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Florida State
passing
Jordan Travis
8/19, 191 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
La'Damian Webb
12 CAR, 109 YDS
receiving
Ontaria Wilson
2 REC, 61 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.37

Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 46

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.50

Javonte Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 43

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales

4th & 11Blocked Punt+18 yds

Ben Kiernan punt blocked by Ja'Khi Douglas blocked by Ja'Khi Douglas DeCalon Brooks return for 18 yds to the NCaro 23

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Jordan Travis run for 23 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the NCaro 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds, downed at the FlaSt 31

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32

2nd & 9Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 37

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ontaria Wilson

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren Thompson

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, downed at the NCaro 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Sam Howell pass complete to Khafre Brown for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37

2nd & 7Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.26

Javonte Williams run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Javonte Williams

4th & 11Blocked Punt+17 yds

TEAM punt blocked by Marvin Wilson

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren Thompson

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 24

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCaro 33

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 3 yds to the NCaro 40

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.99

Javonte Williams run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.54

Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 29

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.04

Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 31

3rd & 7Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.19

Sam Howell sacked by Cory Durden and DJ Lundy for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 37

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 34 yds, downed at the FlaSt 3

1st & 10Penalty-1 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the FlaSt 2

1st & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jordan Young

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7

3rd & 6Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.77

Jordan Travis pass complete to Preston Daniel for 36 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 15Pass Reception+58 ydsPPA +4.00

Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 58 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Preston Daniel

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Webb, La'Damian rush for 4 yards to the UNC0, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal motion 5 yards to the UNC9, NO PLAY.

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4

3rd & 4Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jordan Travis sacked by Don Chapman for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 4 yds to the NCaro 40

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.44

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -3.41

Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jordan Travis pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.16

Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.23

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 39 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 4 yds to the NCaro 8

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Travis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 3

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.53

Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the NCaro 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32

3rd & 3Interception Return Touchdown+25 ydsPPA -7.53

Sam Howell pass intercepted for a TD Joshua Kaindoh return for 25 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Sam Howell sacked by Jarvis Brownlee Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 19

2nd & 16Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.71

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 36 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari Morales

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

2nd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.88

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the FlaSt 37

3rd & 2Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.20

Javonte Williams run for 27 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 7

2nd & 7Penalty+4 yds

Williams, Javonte rush for loss of 3 yards to the FLORIDAST10, PENALTY FLORIDAST personal foul (Durden, Cory) 4 yards to the FLORIDAST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.

1st & 3Penalty+2 yds

Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Brown, Dyami, PENALTY FLORIDAST roughing passer 2 yards to the FLORIDAST1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.

1st & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 01:02 (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Warren Thompson

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.41

Jordan Travis run for 15 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +0.95

Jordan Travis pass complete to Warren Thompson for 33 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 12 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

La'Damian Webb run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 43

2nd & 3Rush+54 ydsPPA +2.97

La'Damian Webb run for 54 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-18 ydsPPA -2.41

La'Damian Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 6 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 21

2nd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun Corbin

3rd & 21Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 6 yds to the NCaro 15

4th & 15Field Goal Missed+33 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 33 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.27

Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 33 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.13

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 16

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Williams, Javonte rush for 8 yards to the FLORIDAST5, PENALTY UNC holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST23, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 17

2nd & 14Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.46

Sam Howell run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 6

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.02

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Travis run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 2

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keyshawn Helton

3rd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 7

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the FlaSt 49

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 9 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.88

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 38 yds for a TD (Sam Howell pass to Garrett Walston for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34

4th & 1Punt+50 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the FLORIDAST 26 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 17

2nd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.01

Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 21 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +2.31

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 40 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.01

Sam Howell sacked by Janarius Robinson for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 33

2nd & 21Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +4.66

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 33 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+9 ydsPPA -0.92

Jordan Travis pass intercepted Trey Morrison return for 9 yds to the FlaSt 30

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 24

2nd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 27

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett Walston

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Grayson Atkins 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.37

La'Damian Webb run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Ja'Khi Douglas

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.51

Jordan Travis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the NCaro 39

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.25

Jordan Travis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40

3rd & 4Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.63

Jordan Travis run for 19 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NCaro 16

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 19

3rd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 20

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Ryan Fitzgerald 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Williams, Javonte rush for 4 yards to the UNC24, PENALTY UNC illegal block 10 yards to the UNC10, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

2nd & 20Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.09

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 25 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.48

Javonte Williams run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

3rd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.49

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 25 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 20

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 25

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 22

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.92

Sam Howell sacked by Janarius Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 17

2nd & 15Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.27

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 32 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.35

Javonte Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 43

2nd & 16Penalty+15 yds

Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Green, Antoine, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Javonte Williams

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 39

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
34 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
58%
12 plays
100%
6 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
52%
21 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th