Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 3, 2020Week 5
NavyNavy
7
-Final
40
Air ForceAir Force

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 7.3

Home Win Probability

Air Force 62%

Market (consensus)

Air Force +6.5

Edge: Air Force +6.5 (13.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 3, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
07007
Air ForceAir Force
31332140

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-713-716-719-726-733-740-7
Air ForceNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVDOWNS641ydFG735ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT37ydPUNT39ydTD275ydTD875ydTO55ydFG512ydPUNT37ydFG1266ydFG652ydPUNT711ydPUNT632ydPUNT614ydTD774ydDOWNS44ydTD429ydTO752ydTD538ydEND829yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Air Force
StatisticNavyAir Force
Passing8-184-9
Pass Yards15141
Rush Yards90369
Total Yards241410
Turnovers20
3rd Down5-132-9
Penalties4-303-23
Possession25:5234:08

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Tyger Goslin
6/15, 137 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Nelson Smith
7 CAR, 25 YDS
receiving
Myles Fells
1 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
4/9, 41 YDS
rushing
Timothy Jackson
19 CAR, 118 YDS
receiving
Daniel Morris
3 REC, 29 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

2nd & 9Penalty0 yds

GOSLIN, Tyger rush for 7 yards to the NAVY33 (EURE, David), PENALTY NAVY personal foul off-setting, PENALTY AF personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.

2nd & 9Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.42

Tyger Goslin pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 33 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 46

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.14

Tyger Goslin run for 10 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.35

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Timothy Jackson run for 9 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.06

Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.17

Haaziq Daniels run for 21 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Timothy Jackson run for 3 yds to the Navy 26

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 31

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+48 yds

Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Tyger Goslin run for 2 yds to the Navy 31

3rd & 4Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.69

Tyger Goslin sacked by George Silvanic and Alec Mock for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Kadin Remsberg run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 28

2nd & 12Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 23

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 28

4th & 12Punt+9 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 45 yds , Mark Walker returns for 9 yds to the Navy 36

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Ryan Mitchell

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Tyger Goslin pass complete to Chance Warren for 4 yds to the Navy 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 18

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 25

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Mark Walker at the Navy 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

CJ Williams run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+73 ydsPPA +6.53

Tyger Goslin pass complete to Myles Fells for 73 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Timothy Jackson run for 11 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 6Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.55

Haaziq Daniels run for 32 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the Navy 24

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Kadin Remsberg run for 6 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Navy 14

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.68

Timothy Jackson run for 13 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

CJ Williams run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.60

Tyger Goslin run for 6 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 39

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Tyger Goslin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 30 Tyger Goslin fumbled, recovered by AFA Parker Noren

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Timothy Jackson run for 12 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Timothy Jackson run for 2 yds to the Navy 16

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.58

Timothy Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 18

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+35 yds

Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Tyger Goslin pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 9 yds to the Navy 34

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.28

Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 29

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Tyger Goslin run for 3 yds to the Navy 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Timothy Jackson run for 5 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kadin Remsberg run for 3 yds to the AFA 27

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.17

Timothy Jackson run for 6 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

NAVY Penalty, Defensive offside (Tama Tuitele) to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.98

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 12 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.54

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Daniel Morris for 12 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.22

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Daniel Morris for 10 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Timothy Jackson run for 7 yds to the Navy 15

4th & 3Field Goal Good+32 yds

Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 32 yd FG GOOD

0th & 3End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Timothy Jackson run for 19 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.58

Timothy Jackson run for 12 yds to the AIRFORCE 44 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Brennan) to the Navy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Navy 26

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Timothy Jackson run for 1 yd to the Navy 25

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 23

4th & 4Field Goal Good+40 yds

Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 34

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.04

CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.12

Tyger Goslin sacked by George Silvanic for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 33

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete

3rd & 17Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 36

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Daniel Morris for 7 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Kadin Remsberg run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Haaziq Daniels run for 13 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Navy 48

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Timothy Jackson run for 4 yds to the Navy 43 Timothy Jackson fumbled, forced by Tama Tuitele, recovered by AFA Kyle Patterson

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Kadin Remsberg run for 2 yds to the Navy 41

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Joseph Carlson punt for 24 yds, downed at the Navy 17

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the Navy 18

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to CJ Williams

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.60

Tyger Goslin pass complete to Chance Warren for 13 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Tyger Goslin pass complete to Chance Warren for 5 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 38

3rd & 3Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.12

Tyger Goslin sacked by Alec Mock and Will Trawick for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 31

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 26

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.54

Brad Roberts run for 17 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Jordan Gidrey sacked by J'arius Warren for a loss of 12 yards to the AFA 31 Jordan Gidrey fumbled, recovered by AFA Jordan Gidrey , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 22Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.64

Brad Roberts run for 24 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +0.91

Brad Roberts run for 29 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 14

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.54

Haaziq Daniels run for 12 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Matthew Murla run for 2 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.16

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Ryan Mitchell, broken up by Grant Donaldson

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.21

Brad Roberts run for 12 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.89

Brad Roberts run for 13 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Maasai Maynor pass complete to CJ Williams for 5 yds to the Navy 40

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA -0.02

Nelson Smith run for 10 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.40

Maasai Maynor run for 8 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Will Trawick) to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+62 ydsPPA -4.46

Maasai Maynor pass intercepted Corvan Taylor return for 62 yds to the Navy 38

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +0.57

Warren Bryan run for 27 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Bo Gross run for 4 yds to the Navy 7

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Bo Gross run for 5 yds to the Navy 2

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.52

Bo Gross run for 1 yd to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Warren Bryan run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 03:50 (Anth Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 28

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.88

Devon High run for 9 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Xavier Arline run for 8 yds to the Navy 45

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.61

Nelson Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.53

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the AFA 46

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
3 plays
0%
1 play
61%
31 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th