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← Back to GamesOct 17, 2020Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

East Carolina by 0.1

Home Win Probability

East Carolina 49%

Market (consensus)

East Carolina +3.5

Edge: East Carolina +3.5 (3.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 17, 2020

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
7614027
East CarolinaEast Carolina
6701023

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-76-713-1313-2013-2723-27
East CarolinaNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECTO419ydPUNT35ydTD650ydFG1052ydTO20ydFG517ydPUNT3-8ydMISS723ydPUNT30ydTD844ydTD775ydPUNT619ydEND521ydTO325ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-4ydTD359ydDOWNS630ydTD1250ydTD284ydPUNT35ydFG1245ydPUNT1132ydTO432yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and East Carolina
StatisticNavyEast Carolina
Passing3-510-20
Pass Yards30109
Rush Yards288268
Total Yards318377
Turnovers22
3rd Down4-123-13
Penalties3-243-20
Possession31:2928:31

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Dalen Morris
3/4, 30 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Nelson Smith
17 CAR, 157 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Ryan Mitchell
1 REC, 14 YDS
defense
East Carolina
passing
Mason Garcia
9/19, 88 YDS
rushing
Rahjai Harris
22 CAR, 172 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyler Snead
4 REC, 44 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.11

Dalen Morris pass complete to Jamale Carothers for 14 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Dalen Morris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46

2nd & 7Pass Interception Return-1 ydsPPA -2.86

Dalen Morris pass intercepted Malik Fleming return for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 12

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECaro 12

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 16

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the ECaro 17

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 33 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 49

2nd & 9Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.93

Jamale Carothers run for 20 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the ECaro 29

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Chance Warren run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Mark Walker run for 6 yds to the ECaro 20

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.36

Nelson Smith run for 20 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Sean Bailey) to the ECaro 20

1st & 15Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.35

Mason Garcia run for 23 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.03

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Navy 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.70

Mason Garcia pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 15 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.30

Rahjai Harris run for 18 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Mason Garcia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 18

2nd & 15Penalty-10 yds

GARCIA, Mason pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY ECU holding (STROTHER, Nshad) 10 yards to the NAVY28, NO PLAY.

2nd & 25Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Mason Garcia run for 5 yds to the Navy 23

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Tyler Snead

4th & 20Field Goal Good+40 yds

Jake Verity 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dalen Morris pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25 Jamale Carothers fumbled, forced by Rick D'Abreu, recovered by ECaro Elijah Morris

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.17

Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the Navy 8

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Navy 8

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Mason Garcia pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+25 yds

Jake Verity 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Dalen Morris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 26

3rd & 9Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.31

Dalen Morris sacked by Chris Willis for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 17

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Mason Garcia run for 4 yds to the Navy 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.02

Mason Garcia pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 18 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Navy 12

2nd & 9Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Mason Garcia sacked by Nicholas Straw for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 14

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Cameron Kinley

4th & 11Blocked Field Goal+31 yds

Jake Verity 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tobe Okafor

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 25

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.82

Dalen Morris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 22

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.11

Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the Navy 24

4th & 6Penalty-4 yds

NAVY Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Navy 20

4th & 10Punt+9 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 33 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 9 yds to the Navy 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Kevin Brennan

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Cameron Kinley

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Mason Garcia pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 8 yds to the Navy 36

4th & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.00

Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.15

Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the Navy 5

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.47

Mason Garcia run for 2 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Mason Garcia run for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Navy 34

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.14

Nelson Smith run for 32 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the ECaro 25

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.63

Dalen Morris pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 14 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Dalen Morris run for 9 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 29

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Mason Garcia run for 8 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Audie Omotosho, broken up by Kevin Brennan

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Mason Garcia run for 6 yds to the ECaro 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Mason Garcia pass complete to Blake Proehl for 1 yd to the ECaro 44

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 18

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 23

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.55

Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Myles Fells run for 1 yd to the Navy 33

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.75

Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Rahjai Harris run for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

GARCIA, Mason deep out pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY NAVY pass interference (KINLEY, Cameron) 15 yards to the NAVY49, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -3.24

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line Rahjai Harris fumbled, forced by Tama Tuitele, recovered by Navy Alefosio Saipaia , return to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Dalen Morris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 45

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 14

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.69

Mason Garcia sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 5

2nd & 19Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Mason Garcia pass complete to Blake Proehl for 5 yds to the ECaro 10

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to Blake Proehl

4th & 14Punt+1 yds

Jonn Young punt for 50 yds , Mark Walker returns for 1 yd to the Navy 41

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

MORRIS, Dalen rush QK for 11 yards to the ECU48 (D'ABREU, Rick), PENALTY NAVY illegal block off-setting, PENALTY ECU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Tyger Goslin run for 6 yds to the Navy 47

2nd & 4Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.47

Nelson Smith run for 24 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Nelson Smith run for 29 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Mason Garcia pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 13 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Mason Garcia run for 14 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the Navy 47

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the Navy 45

4th & 2Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.43

Mason Garcia run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 49

2nd & 9Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.74

Jamale Carothers run for 14 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.45

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tyger Goslin pass incomplete to Myles Fells

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Tyger Goslin run for 7 yds to the ECaro 16

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.30

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 10

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Tyger Goslin run for 6 yds to the ECaro 4

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Tyger Goslin run for 1 yd to the ECaro 3

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.82

Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 20

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.65

Rahjai Harris run for 80 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tyger Goslin run for no gain to the Navy 25

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the Navy 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 33

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 35

2nd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.55

Tyler Snead run for 20 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.15

Rahjai Harris run for 8 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.01

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 33

2nd & 13Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.04

Mason Garcia run for 12 yds to the Navy 21

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.62

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ECaro Mason Garcia , return for no gain to the Navy 22

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.96

Mason Garcia run for 3 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the Navy 15

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.91

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ECaro Mason Garcia

3rd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.16

Mason Garcia run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 22

4th & 13Field Goal Good+39 yds

Jake Verity 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 43

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 44

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.23

Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Tyger Goslin run for 2 yds to the Navy 48

2nd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.81

Jamale Carothers run for 15 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

CJ Williams run for no gain to the ECaro 36

3rd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Chance Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 38

4th & 11Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 43

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Daniel Davies punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Mason Garcia pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Michael McMorris

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Mason Garcia pass complete to Tyler Snead for 16 yds to the ECaro 47 lat. to Rahjai Harris for 5 yds Rahjai Harris fumbled, recovered by Navy Jackson Perkins

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
25 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
14 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
3 plays

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
36%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
10 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
100%
1 play
0%
4 plays
4th
67%
3 plays