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← Back to GamesOct 3, 2020Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 21

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 89%

Market (consensus)

Cincinnati -22.5

Edge: South Florida +22.5 (1.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 3, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South FloridaSouth Florida
00707
CincinnatiCincinnati
7714028

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-021-028-7
CincinnatiSouth Florida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFCINSFTO31ydTO410ydTO24ydTO2-4ydPUNT3-1ydTD1392ydMISS42ydPUNT3-8ydDOWNS1241ydPUNT35ydTO410ydTO531ydPUNT610ydTD1165ydEND427ydMISS841ydDOWNS947ydTD867ydTD1065ydTD00ydTO740ydTO934ydTO20ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT3-4ydEND651yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Florida and Cincinnati
StatisticSouth FloridaCincinnati
Passing21-4116-26
Pass Yards208143
Rush Yards83189
Total Yards291332
Turnovers54
3rd Down5-1310-17
Penalties3-407-52
Possession23:3636:24

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Florida
passing
Jordan McCloud
12/21, 137 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Leonard Parker
7 CAR, 51 YDS
receiving
DeVontres Dukes
3 REC, 47 YDS
defense
Cincinnati
passing
Desmond Ridder
16/26, 143 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Gerrid Doaks
22 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayshon Jackson
3 REC, 47 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Johnny Ford for 1 yd to the SFla 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman, broken up by Arquon Bush

3rd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA +0.07

Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Coby Bryant return for no gain to the SFla 46

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the SFla 45

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the SFla 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.48

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young for 5 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+2 ydsPPA -3.99

Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Mac Harris return for 2 yds to the SFla 37

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SFla 41

2nd & 6Pass Interception Return+1 ydsPPA -1.79

Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Ahmad Gardner return for 1 yd to the Cincy 49

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 11 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -3.81

Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 45 Gerrid Doaks fumbled, forced by Blake Green, recovered by SFla Thad Mangum

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42

2nd & 7Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.94

Johnny Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to DeVontres Dukes

4th & 11Punt+38 yds

Trent Schneider punt for 29 yds CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (Curtis Brooks) to the Cincy 8

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 10

2nd & 8Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.91

Desmond Ridder run for 26 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the Cincy 44

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.36

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.92

Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the SFla 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the SFla 40

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.36

Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds to the SFla 24

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Charles McClelland run for no gain to the SFla 24

3rd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.34

Gerrid Doaks run for 11 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 10

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.64

Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 28

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the Cincy 28

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Cade Fortin pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Jared Sackett 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.47

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 27

3rd & 11Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.25

Desmond Ridder sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 20

4th & 18Punt0 yds

James Smith punt for 53 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Bryce Miller for 5 yds to the SFla 32

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the SFla 36

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.11

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the SFla 40

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 44

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

MARSH, Katravis pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, L, PENALTY CIN offside (SANDERS, Myjai) 5 yards to the USF49, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Johnny Ford) to the SFla 34

2nd & 25Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.40

Katravis Marsh pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 21 yds to the Cincy 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 6 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete to DeVontres Dukes, broken up by Ahmad Gardner

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Kelley Joiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 36

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 4 yds to the Cincy 32

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.54

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds to the Cincy 35

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker

4th & 5Punt0 yds

James Smith punt for 60 yds, downed at the SFla 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Katravis Marsh run for 2 yds to the SFla 5

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the SFla 11

3rd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +0.32

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Chris Carter for 2 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.30

Katravis Marsh pass intercepted Coby Bryant return for no gain to the SFla 44

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.62

Gerrid Doaks run for 15 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the SFla 21

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the SFla 20

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.46

Desmond Ridder pass intercepted, touchback. Christopher Townsel return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 22

3rd & 8Penalty+5 yds

FORTIN, Cade sacked for loss of 8 yards to the USF14 (TUCKY, Ethan), PENALTY CIN offside (PONDER, Elijah) 5 yards to the USF27, NO PLAY.

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.09

Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Cade Fortin pass complete to Kelley Joiner for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 30

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the SFla 30

3rd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.20

Johnny Ford run for no gain to the SFla 30

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Trent Schneider punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 35

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Gerrid Doaks run for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jordan Jones for 13 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 40

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 39

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the SFla 36

4th & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.18

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young for 7 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds to the SFla 20

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Gerrid Doaks run for no gain to the SFla 20

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.18

Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the SFla 13

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.60

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 13 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the SFla 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.42

Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.36

Cade Fortin pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 15 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Cade Fortin pass incomplete

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 10 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 48

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.31

Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to YOUNG, Michael, PENALTY USF pass interference (TOWNSEL, Chris) 15 yards to the USF24, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 21

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 20

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Gerrid Doaks

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Cole Smith 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.80

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Latrell Williams for 16 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

McCLOUD, Jordan pass incomplete to BRINKMAN, Mitch, QB hurry by DUBLANKO, Joel, PENALTY USF holding (JACOBS, D) 10 yards to the USF26, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 3 yds to the SFla 29

2nd & 17Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.80

Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 30 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Darrian Beavers) to the SFla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 13 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.63

Jordan McCloud sacked by Myjai Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman

3rd & 18Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.90

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 15 yds to the Cincy 35

4th & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -2.26

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Carter for 2 yds to the Cincy 33

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 49

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.60

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 6 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +0.96

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 35 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Gerrid Doaks run for 4 yds to the SFla 6

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the SFla 3

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 11 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Latrell Williams, broken up by Ja'von Hicks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.93

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 10 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.84

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 28 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 15

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix, broken up by Coby Bryant

3rd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -2.06

Jordan McCloud sacked by Malik Vann for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 20 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by SFla Michael Wiggs , return for 0 yards

4th & 14Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.41

Randall St. Felix pass complete to Jordan McCloud for 18 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Johnny Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Johnny Ford run for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)

No play data available
1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce Miller

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 13 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.34

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 15 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 49

2nd & 12Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.12

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Johnny Ford for 13 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.44

Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for no gain to the Cincy 5

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 6

2nd & 9Penalty-3 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 3

2nd & 12Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.21

Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Cincy 12

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.79

Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the Cincy 29

3rd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.09

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Bruno Labelle for 3 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 3 yds to the Cincy 35

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Cincy 39

3rd & 3Pass Interception Return+3 ydsPPA -0.97

Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Brock Nichols return for 3 yds to the SFla 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman, broken up by James Wiggins

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+8 ydsPPA -1.95

Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Darrian Beavers return for 8 yds to the SFla 45

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MCCLELLAND, C. rush for 15 yards to the USF30, out-of-bounds (NICHOLS, Brock), PENALTY CIN holding (WHYLE, Josh) 10 yards to the CIN45, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 18Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.80

Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45

3rd & 20Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 10 yds to the SFla 45

4th & 10Punt0 yds

James Smith punt for 38 yds, downed at the SFla 7

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordan McCloud sacked by Ty Van Fossen for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 1 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined

2nd & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.04

Leonard Parker run for no gain to the SFla 1

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.02

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix

4th & 16Punt+7 yds

Trent Schneider punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 7 yds to the SFla 41

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the SFla 39

3rd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 40

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 45

4th & 14Punt0 yds

James Smith punt for 36 yds, downed at the SFla 9

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Leonard Parker run for 3 yds to the SFla 12

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Leonard Parker run for 4 yds to the SFla 16

3rd & 3Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.53

Leonard Parker run for 27 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Leonard Parker run for 6 yds to the SFla 49

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Leonard Parker run for 9 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Leonard Parker run for 2 yds to the Cincy 40

Situational Analysis

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
26%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
29%
14 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
100%
1 play
25%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
30 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
12 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
88%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play