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← Back to GamesOct 26, 2019Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Arkansas State by 14

Home Win Probability

Arkansas State 81%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Oct 26, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas StateTexas State
0140014
Arkansas StateArkansas State
71014738

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-017-717-1424-1431-1438-14
Arkansas StateTexas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASDOWNS774ydTD1899ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT43ydTO3-3ydFG4-1ydPUNT38ydTD864ydTD765ydPUNT53ydTD764ydPUNT419ydEND11ydPUNT516ydPUNT3-3ydTD113ydTO10ydPUNT831ydPUNT39ydTD116ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT30ydTO22ydTD1366ydPUNT38ydPUNT38ydPUNT519ydEND512yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas State and Arkansas State
StatisticTexas StateArkansas State
Passing15-2718-28
Pass Yards146158
Rush Yards81206
Total Yards227364
Turnovers30
3rd Down2-128-19
Penalties6-555-45
Possession22:4037:20

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas State
passing
Tyler Vitt
15/27, 146 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Caleb Twyford
16 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jeremiah Haydel
3 REC, 56 YDS
defense
Arkansas State
passing
Layne Hatcher
18/28, 158 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Marcel Murray
22 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Omar Bayless
7 REC, 77 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds to the TexSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+60 ydsPPA +4.05

Caleb Twyford run for 60 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Tyler Vitt run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 1

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.21

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 5

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.44

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 11 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 25

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.64

Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 28

3rd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.17

Layne Hatcher run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Layne Hatcher run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.44

Jamal Jones run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 4 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt

4th & 2Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.23

Jamal Jones run for 21 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jamal Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 16

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +3.01

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 2 yds to the TexSt 27

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 22

2nd & 13Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.29

Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 18

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Kirk Merritt

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.48

Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Omar Bayless) to the ArkSt 40

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 47 yds, downed at the TexSt 5

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.14

Tyler Vitt sacked by Jeffmario Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 2 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Logan Wescott , return for 0 yards

1st & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.85

Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the TexSt 3 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Marcel Murray

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Jarron Morris

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless, broken up by Jarron Morris

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 ydsPPA -1.08

Blake Grupe 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 7 yds to the TexSt 22

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 1 yd to the TexSt 23

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 23

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.95

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 26 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.34

Layne Hatcher sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 40

2nd & 13Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.73

Marcel Murray run for 17 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the TexSt 16

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15

3rd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 8 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jamal Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48

2nd & 8Penalty0 yds

PENALTY TXST unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY ASU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.95

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 37 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 7

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 2

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.80

Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 9 yds to the ArkSt 36

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.97

Layne Hatcher sacked by Nikolas Daniels for a loss of 6 yards to the ArkSt 33

2nd & 16Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.43

Layne Hatcher sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 28 Layne Hatcher fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Layne Hatcher , return for 0 yards

3rd & 21Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.04

Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 30

4th & 19Punt+12 yds

Cody Grace punt for 46 yds , Hutch White returns for 12 yds to the TexSt 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hunter Hebert for 1 yd to the TexSt 37

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White

3rd & 9Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.24

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 18 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.57

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 12 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.97

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 32 yds to the ArkSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the ArkSt 1

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 6 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.37

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 19 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Hatcher, Layne rush for 4 yards to the TXST34 (LondonII,Bryan), PENALTY ASU HL (Horst, Jarrett) 10 yards to the TXST48, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception0 yds

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for no gain to the TexSt 48 TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the TexSt 48

2nd & 20Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 10 yds to the TexSt 38

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Bryan London II

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 38 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.59

Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Marcel Murray run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the TexSt 44

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Omar Bayless

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 9

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 13

2nd & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.49

Tyler Vitt sacked by Logan Wescott for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 5

3rd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.02

Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 6

4th & 13Punt+2 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt , Jamal Jones returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 13

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Marcel Murray run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.92

Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Nathan Page return for no gain to the ArkSt 31

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32

3rd & 9Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.63

Layne Hatcher run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr., broken up by Khambrail Winters

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, downed at the TexSt 3

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the TexSt 4

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.15

Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 3

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.12

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 9 yds to the TexSt 12

4th & 1Punt+34 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 34 yds to the TexSt 16

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Marcel Murray run for 16 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.23

Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 23

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for no gain to the ArkSt 40 B.J. Edmonds fumbled, recovered by ArkSt B.J. Edmonds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Ernesto Ramirez) to the ArkSt 40

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jamal Jones run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Omar Bayless) to the ArkSt 40

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 26

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.52

Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Nathan Page return for no gain to the ArkSt 34

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 35

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.90

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcel Murray for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.21

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 19 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.91

Layne Hatcher sacked by Nikolas Daniels for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSt 46

2nd & 21Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the TexSt 39

3rd & 14Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.92

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 9 yds to the TexSt 30

4th & 5Penalty+15 yds

Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Bayless, Omar, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Taylor,AnthonyJ) 15 yards to the TXST15, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jamal Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 12

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Jamal Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.66

DJ Chatman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

DJ Chatman run for no gain to the TexSt 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 2 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hunter Hebert for 1 yd to the TexSt 18

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Anthony D. Taylor run for 7 yds to the TexSt 25

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by B.J. Edmonds

4th & 2Punt+1 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds , B.J. Edmonds returns for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Jamal Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 39

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jamal Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jamal Jones for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for 3 yds to the TexSt 13

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.86

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 12 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Ishmael Davis run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Anthony D. Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 35

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the ArkSt 40

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

DJ Chatman run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 43

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

DJ Chatman run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48

3rd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.68

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Omar Bayless for 8 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 46

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.38

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 48

Situational Analysis

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
21%
19 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
38%
29 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
45%
11 plays
63%
8 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays