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← Back to GamesSep 14, 2019Week 3
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 7.9

Home Win Probability

Navy 70%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 14, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
030710
NavyNavy
141414042

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-021-328-335-342-342-10
NavyEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECECNAVECNAVPUNT3-7ydTD638ydPUNT421ydTD865ydPUNT640ydTD1085ydFG1169ydTD872ydPUNT39ydPUNT410ydEND316ydTD1475ydPUNT37ydTD180ydPUNT34ydDOWNS819ydTD850ydPUNT524ydPUNT30ydTO3-2ydPUNT516ydTO314ydEND3-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and Navy
StatisticEast CarolinaNavy
Passing11-236-8
Pass Yards138153
Rush Yards84315
Total Yards222468
Turnovers21
3rd Down2-136-14
Penalties6-555-54
Possession21:4838:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
11/23, 138 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Holton Ahlers
9 CAR, 36 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyler Snead
3 REC, 54 YDS
defense
Navy
passing
Malcolm Perry
5/7, 151 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Malcolm Perry
24 CAR, 156 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
CJ Williams
3 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Branden Pena) to the ECaro 21

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.22

Hussein Howe run for no gain to the ECaro 21

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 16

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 22 yds, downed at the ECaro 38

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.33

CJ Williams run for 10 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the ECaro 26

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Malcolm Perry pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Malcolm Perry pass complete to Myles Fells for 7 yds to the ECaro 19

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.71

Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Malcolm Perry run for 18 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.76

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 12 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.06

Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 27

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.51

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Leroy Henley for 11 yds to the ECaro 38

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Nelson Smith run for 6 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 42

3rd & 3Rush+30 ydsPPA +3.03

Malcolm Perry run for 30 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the ECaro 26

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the ECaro 26

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.09

Tazh Maloy run for 11 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 11

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.58

Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.89

Holton Ahlers run for 24 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.70

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Brennan) to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Jsi Hatfield run for 7 yds to the Navy 39

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl

4th & 3Penalty-10 yds

AHLERS, Holton pass complete to FARRIER, Deondr for 6 yards to the NAVY33 (FOCHTMAN, Evan), PENALTY ECU holding (PENA, Branden) 10 yards to the NAVY49, NO PLAY.

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 34 yds, fair catch by CJ Williams at the Navy 15

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to CJ Williams

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 33

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 35

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.75

Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 42

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 43

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.61

Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 44

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

PERRY, Malcolm rush for loss of 4 yards to the ECU48 (STRINGER, G.), PENALTY ECU personal foul (STRINGER, G.) 15 yards to the ECU29, 1ST DOWN NAVY, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 29 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the ECaro 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 35

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the ECaro 42

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.17

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Navy 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +2.42

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 41 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the Navy 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the Navy 1

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

MAUNEY, Dmtrius rush for 1 yard to the NAVY0, clock 09:19, PENALTY ECU illegal formation 5 yards to the NAVY6, NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 ydsPPA -0.87

Jake Verity 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.76

Malcolm Perry run for 19 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 48

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.87

Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 8 yds to the ECaro 44

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.84

Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 47

4th & 4Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.32

Nelson Smith run for 9 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jalen Price) to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.13

Mychal Cooper run for 11 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Nelson Smith run for no gain to the ECaro 6 Nelson Smith fumbled, recovered by Navy Nelson Smith , return for 6 yds to the ECaro 6

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.35

Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 28

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Demetrius Mauney

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 35

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.83

Malcolm Perry sacked by Alex Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 37

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 36

3rd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

CJ Williams run for 1 yd to the Navy 37

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Owen White punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 13

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 13

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.20

Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 12

3rd & 11Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Hussein Howe run for 17 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST down

0th & 11End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 28

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Myles Fells run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 40

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 45

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.24

Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.00

Malcolm Perry pass complete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau for 27 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.14

Nelson Smith run for 12 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 7

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Tazh Maloy run for 4 yds to the ECaro 3

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.62

Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the ECaro 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy Henley, broken up by Cameron Kinley

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 20

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.39

Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 80 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 23

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Demetrius Mauney run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead

4th & 6Punt+11 yds

Jonn Young punt for 54 yds , CJ Williams returns for 11 yds to the Navy 31

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Perry Olsen run for 5 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.94

Isaac Ruoss run for 6 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Perry Olsen run for 7 yds to the Navy 49

2nd & 3Penalty-15 yds

RUOSS, Isaac rush for 2 yards to the ECU49 (BERRY, Myles), PENALTY NAVY personal foul (HIGGINS, Ford) 15 yards to the NAVY34, NO PLAY.

2nd & 18Rush+20 ydsPPA +3.34

Travis Brannan run for 20 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -1.03

Perry Olsen run for no gain to the ECaro 48 Perry Olsen fumbled, recovered by Navy Isaac Ruoss

2nd & 12Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Perry Olsen pass complete to Myles Fells for 2 yds to the ECaro 46 NAVY Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declined

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Perry Olsen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42

4th & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.21

Perry Olsen sacked by Gerard Stringer for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Demetrius Mauney run for 3 yds to the Navy 47

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.75

Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Navy 42

4th & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.42

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 10 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.36

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 22 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 11

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl

3rd & 11Penalty+9 yds

AHLERS, Holton pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY NAVY pass interference (MCMORRIS, M) 9 yards to the NAVY2, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Perry Olsen run for 8 yds to the Navy 33

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.72

Perry Olsen run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 39

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Tyreek King-El run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 37

3rd & 15Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.83

Perry Olsen run for 12 yds to the Navy 49

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Owen White punt for 41 yds , Tyler Snead returns for no gain to the ECaro 10

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the ECaro 14

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.45

Hussein Howe run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 10

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Kevin Brennan

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jonn Young punt for 31 yds , Daniel Taylor returns for no gain to the ECaro 42 Daniel Taylor fumbled, recovered by ECaro Mydreon Vines

1st & 10Rush-13 ydsPPA -2.62

Jsi Hatfield run for a loss of 13 yards to the ECaro 29

2nd & 23Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Hussein Howe run for 11 yds to the ECaro 40

3rd & 12Pass Interception Return-20 ydsPPA -0.23

Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Kevin Brennan return for 10 yds to the 50 yard line NAVY Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) declined

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Perry Olsen run for 3 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.54

Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Perry Olsen run for 4 yds to the ECaro 46

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

James Harris II run for 1 yd to the ECaro 45

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

James Harris II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 41

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 46

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Owen White punt for 39 yds, downed at the ECaro 7

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Demetrius Mauney run for 6 yds to the ECaro 13

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 15

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 21 Demetrius Mauney fumbled, forced by Deondrae Williams, recovered by Navy Austin Talbert-Loving

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.58

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23

2nd & 12Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.11

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 26

3rd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.20

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 27

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
40%
20 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
45%
31 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
38%
8 plays
50%
8 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays