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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2019Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Liberty by 13

Home Win Probability

Liberty 77%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New MexicoNew Mexico
030710
LibertyLiberty
773017

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-07-314-317-317-10
LibertyNew Mexico

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LIBNMLIBNMLIBNMLIBNMLIBNMLIBNMNMLIBNMLIBNMLIBNMLIBNMLIBDOWNS618ydTO625ydPUNT616ydPUNT37ydPUNT36ydPUNT41ydTD987ydFG1241ydTO855ydPUNT517ydTD882ydEND1-1ydPUNT613ydFG768ydPUNT634ydMISS876ydTO637ydPUNT521ydDOWNS1077ydPUNT838ydTD1186ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico and Liberty
StatisticNew MexicoLiberty
Passing12-2624-36
Pass Yards139306
Rush Yards223160
Total Yards362466
Turnovers21
3rd Down9-174-12
Penalties6-403-30
Possession30:3329:27

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico
passing
Tevaka Tuioti
12/26, 139 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Ahmari Davis
18 CAR, 99 YDS
receiving
Marcus Williams
3 REC, 33 YDS
defense
Liberty
passing
Stephen Calvert
24/36, 306 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Josh Mack
14 CAR, 95 YDS
receiving
Antonio Gandy-Golden
6 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.24

Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 1 yd to the Liber 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden, broken up by Donte Martin

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 7 yds to the Liber 46

4th & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.72

Brandon Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 43

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jay Griffin IV run for 2 yds to the Liber 41

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Ahmari Davis run for 7 yds to the Liber 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Teton Saltes) to the Liber 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.81

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 18 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the Liber 19

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Ahmari Davis run for 1 yd to the Liber 18

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.83

Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted, touchback. Jimmy Faulks return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa, broken up by Donte Martin

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.51

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 10 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Kevin Shaa, broken up by De'John Rogers

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 6 yds to the Liber 36

4th & 4Punt+2 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 45 yds , De'John Rogers returns for 2 yds to the NMex 21

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 25

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the NMex 28

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan Kress

4th & 3Punt+1 yds

Tyson Dyer punt for 58 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 1 yd to the Liber 15

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 21

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.65

Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the LIBERTY 47 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NMex 43

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the NMex 46

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the NMex 49

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tyson Dyer punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 13

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 19

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 3 yds to the Liber 22

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

LIBERTY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Liber 17

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.98

Stephen Calvert run for 7 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 28

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.30

Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Shedro Louis for 3 yds to the Liber 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +3.06

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 51 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the NMex 3

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the NMex 33

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.25

Ahmari Davis run for 4 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Ralfs Rusins and Austin Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 35

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.25

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Teton Saltes) to the Liber 48

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the Liber 46

2nd & 13Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.12

Ahmari Davis run for 15 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

DAVIS, Ahmari rush left for 8 yards to the LIBERTY23, out-of-bounds (STEELE, I.), PENALTY NM holding (SYLVESTER, Jarr) 10 yards to the LIBERTY41, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Bryson Carroll run for 7 yds to the Liber 34

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan Kress

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan Kress

4th & 13Field Goal Good+52 ydsPPA +1.84

Andrew Shelley 52 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Damian King for 8 yds to the NMex 47

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Joshua Mack run for 5 yds to the NMex 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the NMex 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.72

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.36

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 22 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the NMex 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie Hickson

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -4.12

Stephen Calvert run for 4 yds Stephen Calvert fumbled, forced by Erin Austin, recovered by NMex De'John Rogers

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the NMex 25

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.06

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 10 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 37

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (Javon Mosley) to the NMex 32

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tevaka Tuioti run for 5 yds to the NMex 37

3rd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.41

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Daevon Vigilant for no gain to the NMex 37

4th & 8Punt+13 yds

Tyson Dyer punt for 58 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for 13 yds to the Liber 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 6 yds to the Liber 24

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.88

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 10 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the Liber 43

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+53 ydsPPA +2.91

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Noah Frith for 53 yds to the NMex 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Joshua Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 4

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the NMex 2

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Probert KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ahmari Davis run for 7 yds to the NMex 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to E Logan-Greene for 4 yds to the NMex 40

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.29

Ahmari Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem Umeh

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tyson Dyer punt for 54 yds, downed at the Liber 8

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 10

2nd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.98

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Zac Foutz for 15 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.17

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 42 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 4 yds to the NMex 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the NMex 24

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the NMex 24

4th & 1Field Goal Good+42 ydsPPA -0.41

Alex Probert 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Bryson Carroll run for no gain to the NMex 25

2nd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.49

Tevaka Tuioti sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 21

3rd & 14Rush+33 ydsPPA +3.73

Tevaka Tuioti run for 33 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Bryson Carroll run for 3 yds to the Liber 43

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Ahmari Davis run for 2 yds to the Liber 41

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tyson Dyer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 10

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.86

Joshua Mack run for 17 yds to the Liber 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.96

Joshua Mack run for 38 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the NMex 27

2nd & 2Rush+16 ydsPPA -0.11

Frankie Hickson run for 16 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.47

Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 14

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Noah Frith

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Antonio Gandy-Golden

4th & 13Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Alex Probert 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Jordan Kress

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams

3rd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.25

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 18 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 14 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ahmari Davis run for 5 yds to the Liber 43

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return-38 ydsPPA -3.41

Tevaka Tuioti pass intercepted Elijah Benton return for 23 yds to the Liber 20 LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Solomon Ajayi) to the Liber 27

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 31

2nd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.96

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Antonio Gandy-Golden for 16 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Joshua Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 44

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 4 yds to the Liber 48

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie Hickson, broken up by Alex Hart

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Marcus Williams for 5 yds to the NMex 25

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 27

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.09

Tevaka Tuioti run for 4 yds to the NMex 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Bryson Carroll run for 9 yds to the NMex 40

2nd & 1Rush+35 ydsPPA +1.54

Ahmari Davis run for 35 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the Liber 22

2nd & 7Penalty+10 yds

TUIOTI, Tevaka deep pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Marcu, QB hurry by GLAIZE, M., PENALTY LIBERTY holding (SCRUGGS, J.) 10 yards to the LIBERTY12, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Daevon Vigilant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 13

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Ahmari Davis run for 3 yds to the Liber 10

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal touching ( Yards) declined

4th & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA -3.61

Tevaka Tuioti run for 7 yds to the Liber 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 7

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 12

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.44

Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Liber 24

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 27

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense (Patrick Peek) to the Liber 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Jerome Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 36

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Stephen Calvert pass complete to Frankie Hickson for 5 yds to the Liber 41

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 45 yds, fair catch by De'John Rogers at the NMex 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Bryson Carroll run for 4 yds to the NMex 18

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Bryson Carroll run for 2 yds to the NMex 20

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.97

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Q' Drennan for 6 yds to the NMex 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Anselem Umeh

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.98

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 14 yds to the NMex 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.21

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 14 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.67

Tevaka Tuioti run for 14 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Marcus Williams

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Bryson Carroll run for 7 yds to the Liber 25

3rd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Bryson Carroll run for 11 yds to the Liber 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Aaron Molina for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Shelley KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 47

Situational Analysis

New Mexico

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
26 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
17%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
45%
29 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
60%
10 plays
38%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays