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← Back to GamesSep 13, 2019Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wake Forest by 15.6

Home Win Probability

Wake Forest 82%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 13, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
0031518
Wake ForestWake Forest
7140324

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-021-021-321-1024-18
Wake ForestNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCWFNCWFNCWFNCWFNCWFNCWFNCWFNCWFNCWFWFNCWFNCWFNCNCWFNCWFNCWFNCPUNT32ydPUNT820ydPUNT37ydPUNT3-2ydTO3-8ydPUNT518ydTO217ydTD220ydPUNT3-2ydTD578ydPUNT35ydTD585ydPUNT512ydDOWNS1274ydPUNT426ydPUNT39ydPUNT34ydEND22ydPUNT35ydPUNT710ydPUNT623ydPUNT34ydTO10ydDOWNS436ydFG813ydPUNT423ydTD680ydPUNT415ydTD580ydFG1261ydEND633yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and Wake Forest
StatisticNorth CarolinaWake Forest
Passing18-3014-26
Pass Yards189214
Rush Yards144222
Total Yards333436
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-165-15
Penalties7-432-15
Possession29:2130:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Sam Howell
17/28, 182 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Michael Carter
13 CAR, 96 YDS
receiving
Dyami Brown
3 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Wake Forest
passing
Jamie Newman
14/26, 214 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Kenneth Walker III
13 CAR, 94 YDS
receiving
Sage Surratt
9 REC, 169 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Justin Strnad
1 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd to the NCaro 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Sam Howell run for no gain to the NCaro 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd to the NCaro 27

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 42

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jamie Newman run for 6 yds to the WFrst 48

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Christian Beal-Smith run for 8 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jamie Newman run for no gain to the NCaro 44

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the NCaro 36

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.71

Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

WAKE FOREST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 44

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42

2nd & 18Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 4 yds to the NCaro 38

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 38 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 27

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

4th & 3Punt+10 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 56 yds , Sage Surratt returns for 10 yds to the WFrst 27

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 25

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage Surratt

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 29

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31

2nd & 8Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Sam Howell sacked by Shamar McCollum for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 30

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 25

3rd & 14Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.14

Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21

4th & 18Punt-6 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Sage Surratt returns for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 32 Sage Surratt fumbled, recovered by WFrst

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.89

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 13 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Jamie Newman pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, downed at the NCaro 3

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Sam Howell run for no gain to the NCaro 3

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+17 ydsPPA +0.22

Javonte Williams run for 17 yds to the NCaro 20 Javonte Williams fumbled, recovered by WFrst Luke Masterson

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.73

Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Jamie Newman 5 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.91

Sam Howell sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 21

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.22

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 41 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34

2nd & 7Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.75

Kenneth Walker III run for 21 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the NCaro 6

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.24

Jamie Newman 6 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sage Surratt at the WFrst 15

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 21

2nd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.13

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 14 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.95

Jamie Newman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 12 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+51 ydsPPA +3.92

Sage Surratt 51 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the NCaro 39

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales

3rd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.89

Sam Howell sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 43

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 57 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the WFrst 28

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.16

Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.73

Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 30

3rd & 13Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.82

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 28 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the NCaro 26

3rd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.72

Jamie Newman run for 11 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the NCaro 6

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.13

Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the NCaro 6

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the NCaro 3

1st & 13Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.04

Jace Ruder run for 22 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Jace Ruder pass complete to Javonte Williams for 7 yds to the NCaro 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, downed at the WFrst 24

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Christian Beal-Smith run for 9 yds to the WFrst 33

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.25

Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the WFrst 33

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jamie Newman run for no gain to the WFrst 33

4th & 1Punt+9 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 40 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 9 yds to the NCaro 36

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41

2nd & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.95

Jace Ruder sacked by Luke Masterson for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 34

3rd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Jace Ruder run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sage Surratt at the WFrst 19

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 22

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.47

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 21

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jamie Newman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 25

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 34

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.04

Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 4 yds to the NCaro 44

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 39

2nd & 11Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.99

Sam Howell sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 35

3rd & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.19

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for no gain to the NCaro 35

4th & 15Punt+43 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds , Sage Surratt returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 28

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.60

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 9 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Brandon Chapman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jamie Newman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 5 yds to the WFrst 42

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 56 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 21

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Sam Howell pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sage Surratt at the WFrst 30

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.31

Jamie Newman pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NCaro 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 3 yds to the NCaro 36

2nd & 7Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.11

Javonte Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 33

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 23

3rd & 20Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.85

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 32 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.63

Michael Carter run for 14 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 8 yds to the WFrst 23

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Javonte Williams run for no gain to the WFrst 23

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.01

Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Carter run for no gain to the WFrst 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 25

3rd & 15Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.24

Sam Howell sacked by Justin Strnad for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 32

4th & 22Field Goal Good+49 ydsPPA +2.47

Noah Ruggles 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Kenneth Walker III run for 20 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 44

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 47

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 42

3rd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the WFrst 48

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 31

2nd & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +3.95

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 55 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the WFrst 13

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Dazz Newsome run for 2 yds to the WFrst 11

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.96

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.98

Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the WFrst 39

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 3 yds to the WFrst 42

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage Surratt

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Dom Maggio punt for 58 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.43

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+50 ydsPPA +2.93

Michael Carter run for 50 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the WFrst 17

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.86

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 17 yds for a TD, (Sam Howell pass to Garrett Walston for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.78

Jamie Newman sacked by Tyrone Hopper for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 30

2nd & 16Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.58

Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 27 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the NCaro 36

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.73

Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.26

Christian Beal-Smith run for 14 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 18

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 15

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the NCaro 14

4th & 7Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Sciba 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.63

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 42

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Sam Howell pass complete to Sam Howell for 3 yds to the NCaro 45

4th & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.95

Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
28%
25 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
44%
16 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play

Wake Forest

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
42%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
58%
12 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play