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← Back to GamesNov 16, 2019Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Alabama by 19.1

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 11%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 16, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
AlabamaAlabama
21143038
Mississippi StateMississippi State
70007

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-147-217-287-357-38
Mississippi StateAlabama

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALAMSMSALAMSALAMSALAMSALATD555ydTO10ydTD119ydTD875ydTD1071ydPUNT4-1ydTD469ydPUNT37ydTD1370ydPUNT522ydPUNT36ydPUNT4-1ydDOWNS659ydFG981ydPUNT535ydPUNT643ydDOWNS1562ydDOWNS844ydDOWNS722ydEND29yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Alabama and Mississippi State
StatisticAlabamaMississippi State
Passing21-2912-21
Pass Yards35082
Rush Yards160188
Total Yards510270
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-103-12
Penalties7-865-37
Possession27:5732:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Alabama
passing
Tua Tagovailoa
14/18, 256 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Najee Harris
17 CAR, 88 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Jerry Jeudy
7 REC, 114 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Tommy Stevens
12/21, 82 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Tommy Stevens
10 CAR, 96 YDS
receiving
Farrod Green
1 REC, 30 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 4 yds to the Alab 49

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 44

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 45

3rd & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.76

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 37 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Najee Harris run for 8 yds to the MisSt 10

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.14

Najee Harris run for 10 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-10 ydsPPA -0.92

Tommy Stevens pass intercepted Shane Lee return for 10 yds to the MisSt 19

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 19 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.23

Tommy Stevens run for 27 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Alab 38

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Alab 37

3rd & 6Penalty+15 yds

Stevens, Tommy pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the ALABAMA45 (Davis, Raekwon), PENALTY ALABAMA face mask (Davis, Raekwon) 15 yards to the ALABAMA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.18

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 19 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Alab 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.49

Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Nathan Pickering and Erroll Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 22

2nd & 18Penalty+8 yds

Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Ruggs III, Henry, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Dantzler, Cameron) 8 yards to the ALABAMA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Najee Harris run for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 44

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 45

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.07

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 yds

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 36 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jerry Jeudy) to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.53

Najee Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 21

2nd & 12Penalty-15 yds

ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Landon Dickerson) to the MisSt 37

2nd & 28Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.89

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 23 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 5Penalty+4 yds

Tagovailoa, Tua pass incomplete to Waddle, Jaylen, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Cole II, Brian) 4 yards to the MISSSTATE10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 3 yds to the MisSt 7, fumbled by Smith, Henry Ruggs III for 2 yds to the MisSt 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -1.26

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 1 yd to the MisSt 26 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 16

1st & 19Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.19

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Nick Gibson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

3rd & 20Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.06

Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 45 yds, downed at the Alab 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.77

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.23

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +2.97

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jaylen Waddle for 35 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 2 yds to the MisSt 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry Jeudy

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Alab 42 ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Drew Kobayashi) to the Alab 27

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 26

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Tua Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Alab 26

3rd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.28

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 13 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 39

2nd & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.22

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 34 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to DeVonta Smith

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 2 yds to the MisSt 25

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.04

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 12 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the MisSt 7

2nd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 2 yds to the MisSt 5

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.58

Najee Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Joseph Bulovas KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Isaiah Zuber run for 2 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Stevens, Tommy pass incomplete to Guidry, Stephen, PENALTY ALABAMA roughing passer (McKinney, Xavier) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber

4th & 5Punt+2 yds

Tucker Day punt for 38 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 26

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 32

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jaylen Waddle

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ty Perine punt for 42 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for no gain to the MisSt 26

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.36

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 18

1st & 18Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.21

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for no gain to the MisSt 18

2nd & 18Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Nick Gibson for 5 yds to the MisSt 23

3rd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25

4th & 11Punt+26 yds

Tucker Day punt for 48 yds , Jaylen Waddle returns for 26 yds to the MisSt 47

0th & 11End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+46 ydsPPA +3.49

Tommy Stevens run for 46 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Alab 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 5 yds to the Alab 19

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the Alab 17

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.70

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Alab 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Mac Jones pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 10 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Najee Harris run for 20 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Mac Jones pass complete to Najee Harris for 9 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.01

Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +0.53

Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 26 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Najee Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 12

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Mac Jones pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 7 yds to the MisSt 4

4th & 3Field Goal Good+22 ydsPPA -1.06

Joseph Bulovas 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.60

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 30 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Alab 34

2nd & 5Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.13

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 40

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 12

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 15

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.46

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 18 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 16 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Jones, Mac pass complete to Smith, DeVonta for 46 yards to the MISSSTATE5, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal motion 5 yards to the ALABAMA44, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 47

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Mac Jones pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 8 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Brian Robinson Jr.

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ty Perine punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 8

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 11

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.77

Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.87

Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 20

2nd & 13Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.03

Tommy Stevens run for 17 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.47

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the Alab 43

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 44

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Alab 40

4th & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.01

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 6 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

3rd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Alab 30

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.36

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

Tyrell Shavers run for 14 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47

3rd & 1Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.68

Brian Robinson Jr. run for 20 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Keilan Robinson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Keilan Robinson

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.38

Mac Jones pass incomplete to Slade Bolden

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 32

3rd & 4Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.88

Nick Gibson run for 20 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 3 yds to the Alab 45

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the Alab 44

4th & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.05

Tommy Stevens sacked by Ben Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 48

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Keilan Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 48

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Keilan Robinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 39

Situational Analysis

Alabama

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
54%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
25%
20 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
40%
5 plays
25%
8 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays