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← Back to GamesNov 2, 2019Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 9.9

Home Win Probability

Arkansas 23%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 2, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
14247954
ArkansasArkansas
0107724

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-70-140-177-2410-3817-4517-4824-54
ArkansasMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKARKMSARKARKMSARKARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSTD682ydPUNT425ydTD1180ydPUNT32ydFG1168ydPUNT38ydPUNT32ydTD261ydTD675ydPUNT425ydFG41ydTD584ydTD34ydPUNT36ydPUNT37ydEND29ydPUNT37ydTD666ydTD1259ydFG1347ydTD475ydTD375ydTO311ydEND1149yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Arkansas
StatisticMississippi StateArkansas
Passing13-199-24
Pass Yards180101
Rush Yards460184
Total Yards640285
Turnovers12
3rd Down8-132-12
Penalties3-232-10
Possession40:0919:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Tommy Stevens
12/18, 172 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Kylin Hill
21 CAR, 234 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Deddrick Thomas
2 REC, 59 YDS
defense
Arkansas
passing
Ben Hicks
4/13, 44 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Rakeem Boyd
11 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Treylon Burks
1 REC, 32 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 13

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Tommy Stevens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 14

2nd & 14Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.43

Tommy Stevens run for 15 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 4Rush+62 ydsPPA +3.95

Kylin Hill run for 62 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.87

Rakeem Boyd run for 22 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the Ark 46

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron Dantzler

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Ben Hicks pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Sam Loy punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.01

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Ark 48

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

Tommy Stevens rush for 4 yards to the AR44 (De'Jon Harris;McTelvin Agim), PENALTY AR offside defense (Jamario Bell) 5 yards to the AR43, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tommy Stevens run for 5 yds to the Ark 38

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Ark 34

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.47

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 33 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 28

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the Ark 29

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Ben Hicks pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Sam Loy punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Nick Gibson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.44

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Tommy Stevens run for 8 yds to the Ark 36

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Tommy Stevens run for 6 yds to the Ark 27

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.12

Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 12

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the Ark 8

4th & 3Field Goal Good+26 ydsPPA -0.97

Jace Christmann 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

N/A run for no gain to the Ark 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyson Morris for 8 yds to the Ark 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Tyson Morris, broken up by Brian Cole II

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Sam Loy punt for 59 yds, downed at the MisSt 8

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.20

Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the MisSt 10

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry, broken up by Jarques McClellion

4th & 8Punt+50 yds

Tucker Day punt for 50 yds , Treylon Burks returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Ben Hicks pass complete to Trey Knox for 9 yds to the Ark 48

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +3.50

Rakeem Boyd run for 52 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+37 ydsPPA +2.63

Kylin Hill run for 37 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.15

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 27 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.92

Ben Hicks pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 23 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 47

2nd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.53

A'Montae Spivey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 45

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Ben Hicks pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Sam Loy punt for 32 yds , Malik Dear returns for no gain to the MisSt 23 Malik Dear fumbled, recovered by Ark Jordan Silver

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Rakeem Boyd run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Treylon Burks

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Tyson Morris, broken up by Chauncey Rivers

4th & 9Field Goal Good+40 ydsPPA +0.26

Connor Limpert 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+58 ydsPPA +3.86

Kylin Hill run for 58 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.84

Nick Gibson run for 21 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Ark 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the Ark 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Ben Hicks pass complete to Mike Woods for 4 yds to the Ark 24

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Mike Woods, broken up by Marcus Murphy

3rd & 6Interception Return Touchdown-32 ydsPPA -7.01

Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Marcus Murphy return for 32 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

John Stephen Jones pass complete to Chase Harrell for 6 yds to the Ark 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Chase Harrell

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Mike Woods, broken up by Martin Emerson

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Sam Loy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Zuber at the MisSt 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd to the MisSt 18

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 23

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Treylon Burks at the Ark 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Trey Knox

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Rakeem Boyd run for 9 yds to the Ark 49

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Treylon Burks run for 7 yds to the Ark 32

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Greg Brooks Jr. run for no gain to the Ark 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Trey Knox

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Sam Loy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Zuber at the MisSt 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.63

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 39

3rd & 5Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.66

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.41

Tommy Stevens run for 12 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Ark 3

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 3 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.28

John Stephen Jones pass complete to Tyson Morris for 10 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.30

Rakeem Boyd run for 6 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

John Stephen Jones pass incomplete to Trey Knox

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 7Penalty+13 yds

J.S. Jones pass incomplete to Trey Knox, PENALTY MS pass interference (Cam Dantzler) 13 yards to the MS28, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Treylon Burks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

John Stephen Jones run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

John Stephen Jones run for no gain to the MisSt 13

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Treylon Burks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9

3rd & 6Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.56

John Stephen Jones pass complete to Hudson Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 11

4th & 8Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +3.43

John Stephen Jones pass complete to Mike Woods for 11 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.74

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Isaiah Zuber run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 33

2nd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 40

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.19

Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.62

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 7 yds to the Ark 32

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.04

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Ark 23

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Tommy Stevens rush for 1 yard to the AR22, PENALTY MS illegal forward pass (Tommy Stevens) 5 yards to the AR28, NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton

4th & 11Field Goal Good+46 ydsPPA +1.05

Jace Christmann 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.89

K.J. Jefferson run for 21 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.13

Rakeem Boyd run for 17 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.17

K.J. Jefferson pass complete to Treylon Burks for 32 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

K.J. Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD (Connor Limpert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.46

Nick Gibson run for 28 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Nick Gibson run for no gain to the Ark 47

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +4.66

Nick Gibson run for 47 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 46

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

A'Montae Spivey run for 5 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

K.J. Jefferson pass incomplete to A'Montae Spivey

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+11 ydsPPA -1.10

A'Montae Spivey run for 11 yds to the MisSt 38 A'Montae Spivey fumbled, forced by Martin Emerson, recovered by MisSt Willie Gay Jr.

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 8 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Lee Witherspoon run for 9 yds to the Ark 43

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.08

Lee Witherspoon run for 9 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the Ark 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Brad Cumbest for 8 yds to the Ark 25

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.27

Lee Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Malik Dear run for 2 yds to the Ark 20

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Malik Dear run for 2 yds to the Ark 18

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Logan Burnett pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.46

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 13

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
59%
32 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
30%
10 plays
80%
5 plays
56%
9 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
42%
19 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
25%
8 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays