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← Back to GamesOct 19, 2019Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 17.4

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 14%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Oct 19, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LSULSU
31914036
Mississippi StateMississippi State
070613

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-30-60-97-157-227-297-3613-36
Mississippi StateLSU

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUMSLSUDOWNS620ydFG1242ydPUNT1130ydFG1084ydTO219ydFG637ydTD775ydTD160ydTO614ydTD555ydEND25ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-6ydTD466ydPUNT35ydTD780ydTO524ydPUNT38ydDOWNS757ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT32ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-3ydDOWNS4-1ydTD790ydEND2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing LSU and Mississippi State
StatisticLSUMississippi State
Passing25-3517-28
Pass Yards327238
Rush Yards86102
Total Yards413340
Turnovers03
3rd Down3-113-12
Penalties7-8813-109
Possession25:3934:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

LSU
passing
Joe Burrow
25/32, 327 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
11 CAR, 53 YDS
receiving
Justin Jefferson
8 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Garrett Shrader
17/28, 238 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Garrett Shrader
19 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Stephen Guidry
6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Garrett Shrader run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Deddrick Thomas run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 45

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the MisSt 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 2 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42

3rd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.20

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 19 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 7 yds to the MisSt 16

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.09

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 6 yds to the MisSt 6

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.14

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 ydsPPA -1.08

Cade York 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.30

Garrett Shrader run for 8 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the LSU 48

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the LSU 43

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.86

Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 45

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete

2nd & 25Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47

3rd & 23Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.27

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 8 yds to the LSU 45

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, downed at the LSU 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.49

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 11 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the LSU 30

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.37

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 17 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.31

Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 24 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.59

Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 22 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Derrick Dillon

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 ydsPPA -0.95

Cade York 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Nick Gibson for 24 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.18

Nick Gibson run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 44 Nick Gibson fumbled, recovered by LSU

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 2 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.63

Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 8 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.66

Joe Burrow sacked by Leo Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 16

2nd & 16Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 17

3rd & 17Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.60

Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 10 yds to the MisSt 7

4th & 7Field Goal Good+25 ydsPPA -0.79

Cade York 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 11 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the LSU 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.37

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 17 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the LSU 25

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion+13 ydsPPA +0.47

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (JaCoby Stevens) to the LSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +4.76

Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 60 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Garrett Shrader run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.47

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 15 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 39

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the MisSt 39

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Kylin Hill

3rd & 15Pass Interception Return-24 ydsPPA -0.08

Garrett Shrader pass intercepted JaCoby Stevens return for 9 yds to the LSU 48 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 45

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Joe Burrow run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.65

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the MisSt 22

2nd & 4Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.24

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 14 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 8 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 5 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 35

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.55

Joe Burrow sacked by Chauncey Rivers and Cameron Dantzler for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 18 Joe Burrow fumbled, recovered by LSU

3rd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.04

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the LSU 25

4th & 10Punt+7 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 46 yds , Malik Dear returns for 7 yds to the MisSt 36

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 35

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

3rd & 11Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.41

Garrett Shrader sacked by Michael Divinity Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 30

4th & 16Punt+2 yds

Tucker Day punt for 38 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 2 yds to the LSU 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 6 yds to the LSU 40

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.23

Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 18 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.05

Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 37 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31

3rd & 4Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Garrett Shrader sacked by JaCoby Stevens for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 70 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.14

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 15 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 9 yds to the LSU 44

2nd & 1Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.81

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 19 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Sullivan, Stephen, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Emerson, Martin) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Joe Burrow pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 5 yds to the MisSt 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.06

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 7 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 7 yds to the MisSt 3

2nd & 3Penalty-15 yds

LSU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tory Carter) to the MisSt 18

2nd & 18Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +3.35

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 18 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20

1st & 15Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.18

Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.94

Garrett Shrader pass intercepted Kristian Fulton return for no gain to the LSU 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 49

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.40

John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 49

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 48

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.46

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 29 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.51

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 16 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.21

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 30

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton

3rd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds to the LSU 23

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.65

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.09

Joe Burrow sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 14

2nd & 19Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 3 yds to the LSU 17

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr Chase

4th & 16Punt-4 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 57 yds , Malik Dear returns for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 22

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 6Penalty-13 yds

Shrader, Garrett pass incomplete to Gardner, Cameron, dropped pass, PENALTY MISSSTATE face mask 13 yards to the MISSSTATE13, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.23

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 11 yds to the MisSt 24

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (JaVonta Payton) to the MisSt 24

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 26 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Racey McMath

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the MisSt 44

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Trey Palmer

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, downed at the MisSt 8

1st & 10Penalty-4 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-4 Yards) to the MisSt 4

1st & 14Penalty-2 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-2 Yards) to the MisSt 2

1st & 16Penalty-1 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Tyre Phillips) to the MisSt 1

1st & 17Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 4

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.05

Nick Gibson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 5

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trey Palmer at the LSU 49

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 4Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.25

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the LSU 42 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 48

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Myles Brennan pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.52

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 12 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Garrett Shrader run for 5 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.43

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 13 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.71

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 17 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Lee Witherspoon for 4 yds to the LSU 24

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.81

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 24 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 13

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.17

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 11

Situational Analysis

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
68%
28 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
100%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
28 plays
25%
4 plays
2nd
83%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play