Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 28, 2019Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Auburn by 9.5

Home Win Probability

Auburn 69%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
637723
AuburnAuburn
21217756

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-021-628-628-935-949-956-1656-23
AuburnMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSAUBMSAUBAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBMSAUBPUNT3-19ydTD130ydPUNT3-3ydTD547ydTD218ydTD1275ydTD1178ydFG1166ydTD574ydPUNT33ydTO214ydTO232ydTD1184ydEND1-2ydTD475ydPUNT414ydTO446ydPUNT31ydPUNT39ydTD665ydTD775ydPUNT32ydTO310ydDOWNS632ydDOWNS958ydTD878ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Auburn
StatisticMississippi StateAuburn
Passing13-2618-24
Pass Yards216361
Rush Yards118217
Total Yards334578
Turnovers23
3rd Down3-126-10
Penalties9-705-37
Possession32:3527:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Garrett Shrader
12/23, 209 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Garrett Shrader
16 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Farrod Green
3 REC, 69 YDS
defense
Auburn
passing
Bo Nix
16/21, 335 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Bo Nix
7 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Seth Williams
8 REC, 161 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod Green

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.14

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 7 yds to the MisSt 27

3rd & 8Sack-16 ydsPPA -0.39

Tommy Stevens sacked by Jeremiah Dinson for a loss of 16 yards to the MisSt 11

4th & 24Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 6

4th & 29Punt+18 yds

Tucker Day punt for 42 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 18 yds to the MisSt 30

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 30 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.58

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 22

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry, broken up by Roger McCreary

4th & 13Punt+9 yds

Tucker Day punt for 39 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 31 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 47

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the MisSt 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.96

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 22 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.50

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 6 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (C.J. Morgan) to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Bo Nix run for 9 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 5 yds to the MisSt 13

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.52

Anthony Schwartz run for 13 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.77

Kylin Hill run for 13 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.59

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.95

Garrett Shrader run for 24 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the Aub 17

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Aub 16

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 14

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.57

Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 9

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.69

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 6 yds to the Aub 28

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Bo Nix run for 9 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Bo Nix run for 4 yds to the Aub 41

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Kam Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 40

3rd & 7Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.59

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 30 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 23

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Malik Miller run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.37

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 8 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the MisSt 11

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.18

Anthony Schwartz run for 8 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Garrett Shrader run for 13 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Garrett Shrader run for 10 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Aub 29

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

3rd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.02

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 18 yds to the Aub 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.35

Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 12

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Garrett Shrader run for 3 yds to the Aub 9

4th & 8Field Goal Good+27 ydsPPA -0.66

Jace Christmann 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 8 yds to the Aub 34

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.96

Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the Aub 35

3rd & 1Rush+30 ydsPPA +3.06

Bo Nix run for 30 yds to the MisSt 35 Bo Nix fumbled, forced by C.J. Morgan, recovered by Aub

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.45

Bo Nix sacked by Kobe Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 39

2nd & 14Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +4.42

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 39 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Kylin Hill for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

4th & 7Punt+7 yds

Tucker Day punt for 45 yds , Christian Tutt returns for 7 yds to the Aub 34

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Eli Stove run for 3 yds to the Aub 37

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+11 ydsPPA -1.27

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 11 yds Seth Williams fumbled, forced by Leo Lewis, recovered by MisSt Leo Lewis

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 yds

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 47 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Daniel Thomas) to the Aub 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Penalty-4 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Dareuan Parker) to the Aub 5

1st & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-11 ydsPPA -5.12

Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 16 Garrett Shrader fumbled, forced by Owen Pappoe, recovered by Aub Jeremiah Dinson

1st & 10Penalty-8 yds

AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daniel Thomas) to the Aub 8

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

JaTarvious Whitlow run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 7

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.10

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 1 yd to the Aub 8

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.10

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Seth Williams for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Erroll Thompson) to the Aub 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Eli Stove

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.80

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 14 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the Aub 42

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 45

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.45

Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 4 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +2.46

Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 48 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Will Hastings

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

JaTarvious Whitlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 23

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Bo Nix pass complete to Anthony Schwartz for 19 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.93

Bo Nix pass complete to Will Hastings for 21 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Bo Nix pass complete to Seth Williams for 32 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41

2nd & 9Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.54

Garrett Shrader sacked by K.J. Britt for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 32

3rd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.10

Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.25

Bo Nix pass complete to Eli Stove for 27 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Shaun Shivers run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Shaun Shivers run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -3.27

Shaun Shivers run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 Shaun Shivers fumbled, recovered by MisSt Leo Lewis

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.11

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 36

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to JaVonta Payton

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Reed Bowman punt for 51 yds, downed at the Aub 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Kam Martin run for 2 yds to the Aub 15

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Bo Nix run for 7 yds to the Aub 22

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

JaTarvious Whitlow run for no gain to the Aub 22

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Arryn Siposs punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 35

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Garrett Shrader run for 8 yds to the MisSt 43

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Garrett Shrader run for 13 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.65

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 20 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Aub 21

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.96

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 21 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Kam Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 21

2nd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Anthony Schwartz run for 4 yds to the Aub 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.71

Bo Nix pass complete to Sal Cannella for 31 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Williams, Seth, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside 5 yards to the MISSSTATE39, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Bo Nix pass incomplete to Anthony Schwartz

2nd & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.66

Kam Martin run for 16 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.47

Bo Nix pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 16 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Kam Martin run for 7 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Garrett Shrader run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 22 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by MisSt Garrett Shrader

2nd & 13Penalty+5 yds

AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (T.D. Moultry) to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell, broken up by Jamien Sherwood

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Reed Bowman punt for 31 yds, downed at the Aub 42

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

D.J. Williams run for 1 yd to the Aub 43

2nd & 9Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.59

Joey Gatewood sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 36

3rd & 16Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+16 ydsPPA +0.07

Joey Gatewood pass complete to Malik Miller for 16 yds Malik Miller fumbled, forced by Marquiss Spencer, recovered by MisSt Aaron Brule

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 49

2nd & 7Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.62

Garrett Shrader run for 20 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Roger McCreary

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the Aub 34

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete, broken up by Coynis Miller Jr.

3rd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Aub 32

4th & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA -1.34

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 12 yds to the Aub 20

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

D.J. Williams run for 9 yds to the Aub 29

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.22

D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

D.J. Williams run for 8 yds to the Aub 45

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.61

D.J. Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.05

Joey Gatewood pass complete to Zach Farrar for 10 yds to the AUBURN 46 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Martin Emerson) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Joey Gatewood pass incomplete to Zach Farrar

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

D.J. Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 27

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

D.J. Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23

4th & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.27

Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23

2nd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.99

Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Michael Harris) to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Garrett Shrader run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Malik Dear

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.88

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 12 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 yds

Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 30 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Sideline Interference (9 Yards) to the Aub 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Lee Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the Aub 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 24

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.33

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 23

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
38%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
46%
13 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
33%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Auburn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
52%
31 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
60%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play