Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 21, 2019Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 5.8

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 66%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 21, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
307313
Mississippi StateMississippi State
7140728

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-314-321-321-1021-1328-13
Mississippi StateKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSMSKENMSKENMSKENMSKENMSTD423ydTD00ydPUNT622ydPUNT832ydFG1058ydTD975ydPUNT521ydTD1080ydPUNT413ydTO551ydMISS620ydEND1-2ydTO1155ydTD1180ydPUNT626ydMISS972ydPUNT521ydFG1155ydTD675ydDOWNS812ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Mississippi State
StatisticKentuckyMississippi State
Passing15-4217-22
Pass Yards232180
Rush Yards154241
Total Yards386421
Turnovers12
3rd Down1-126-10
Penalties5-405-45
Possession26:5433:06

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Sawyer Smith
15/41, 232 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Asim Rose
9 CAR, 105 YDS
receiving
Lynn Bowden Jr.
7 REC, 129 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Garrett Shrader
17/22, 180 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Garrett Shrader
11 CAR, 125 YDS
receiving
Deddrick Thomas
2 REC, 46 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Kent 33

2nd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.70

Asim Rose run for 10 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 5 yds to the Kent 48

2nd & 5Interception Return Touchdown-52 ydsPPA -9.64

Willie Gay Jr. 52 Yd Interception Return (Jace Christmann Kick)

1st & 3Penalty0 yds

PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.

1st & 3Penalty0 yds

PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 4 yds to the Kent 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.44

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Kavosiey Smoke run for 12 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 48

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.85

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 47

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh Ali

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 4 yds to the MisSt 24

2nd & 6Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.91

Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 5 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Kent 48

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete, broken up by Tyrell Ajian

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber, broken up by Yusuf Corker

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden, QB hurry by Lee Autry, PENALTY UK holding (Naasir Watkins) 10 yards to the UK10, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.57

Asim Rose run for 31 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 45

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.75

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 15 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 41

2nd & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.52

Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 15 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Kavosiey Smoke run for 1 yd to the MisSt 22

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner

4th & 6Field Goal Good+40 ydsPPA -0.05

Chance Poore 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 3 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.48

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 21 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Garrett Shrader run for 2 yds to the Kent 37

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Garrett Shrader run for 7 yds to the Kent 30

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (Quinton Bohanna) to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.17

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Farrod Green for 13 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Kylin Hill run for 12 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kavosiey Smoke run for 4 yds to the Kent 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.13

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 19 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44

3rd & 12Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -0.64

Sawyer Smith sacked by Fletcher Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 44 Sawyer Smith fumbled, recovered by Kent Drake Jackson , return for 0 yards

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 56 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 1 yd to the MisSt 21

2nd & 9Rush+36 ydsPPA +3.50

Garrett Shrader run for 36 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.54

Garrett Shrader pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 13 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.19

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 34

2nd & 14Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.08

Garrett Shrader run for 12 yds to the Kent 22

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.31

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 4 yds to the Kent 15

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.42

Kylin Hill run for 13 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Kent 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 17 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Lynn Bowden Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.42

Sawyer Smith sacked by Tim Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 35

3rd & 17Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 3 yds to the Kent 38

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.93

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 14 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.59

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.14

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Austin Williams for 20 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-39 ydsPPA -4.13

Garrett Shrader pass intercepted Quandre Mosely return for 39 yds to the MisSt 0 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, broken up by Chauncey Rivers

2nd & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.25

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 30 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Jaquarius Landrews

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Landon Young) to the MisSt 24

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Erroll Thompson

3rd & 15Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.94

Sawyer Smith sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 29

4th & 20Penalty0 yds

PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY MS unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.

4th & 20Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Chance Poore 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.06

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.02

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Isaiah Zuber for 7 yds to the Kent 44

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.66

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 46

3rd & 5Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.26

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Malik Dear for 20 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Kent 17

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete, broken up by Yusuf Corker

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Kent 15

3rd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.49

Garrett Shrader sacked by Brandin Echols for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 20 Garrett Shrader fumbled, recovered by Kent Jamari Brown , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.19

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 20 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Justin Rigg

2nd & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.91

Asim Rose run for 25 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, broken up by C.J. Morgan

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.

4th & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.65

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 21 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Clevan Thomas Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh Ali, broken up by Cameron Dantzler

3rd & 10Penalty+10 yds

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, PENALTY MS pass interference (Cam Dantzler) 10 yards to the MS2, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Kavosiey Smoke run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Michael Story) to the MisSt 26

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Kylin Hill rush for no gain to the MS26 (Tyrell Ajian), PENALTY MS holding (Michael Story) 10 yards to the MS16, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 19

3rd & 16Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.94

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 25 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Malik Dear run for no gain to the MisSt 44

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the Kent 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Garrett Shrader pass incomplete to Geor'quarius Spivey, broken up by Calvin Taylor Jr.

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 49 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.43

Asim Rose run for 18 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner

2nd & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.38

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 39 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Clevan Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the MisSt 15

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.23

Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the MisSt 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Keaton Upshaw

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+26 yds

Chance Poore 26 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Garrett Shrader pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 5 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.45

Kylin Hill run for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Garrett Shrader run for no gain to the MisSt 39

2nd & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.29

Garrett Shrader sacked by DeAndre Square for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 30

3rd & 19Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.30

Garrett Shrader run for 11 yds to the MisSt 41

4th & 8Punt+25 yds

Tucker Day punt for 50 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. returns for 25 yds to the Kent 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.79

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 20 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 37

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.65

Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, broken up by Jaquarius Landrews

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.16

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 20 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

Kavosiey Smoke rush for 2 yards to the MS14 (Cam Dantzler), PENALTY UK face mask (Logan Stenberg) 15 yards to the MS31, NO PLAY.

1st & 25Penalty+15 yds

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh Ali, PENALTY MS pass interference (Tyler Williams) 15 yards to the MS16, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Cameron Dantzler

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 11

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, broken up by Cameron Dantzler

4th & 5Field Goal Good+29 ydsPPA -0.75

Matt Ruffolo 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Garrett Shrader run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31

3rd & 4Rush+49 ydsPPA +3.99

Garrett Shrader run for 49 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the Kent 19

2nd & 9Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.97

Garrett Shrader run for 18 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 5 yds to the Kent 39

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Josh Ali

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr., broken up by Jaquarius Landrews

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (Sawyer Smith) to the Kent 34

4th & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.99

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Josh Ali for 12 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Brian Cole II

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Allen Dailey Jr., broken up by C.J. Morgan

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr., broken up by Jaquarius Landrews

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Bryce Oliver, broken up by Tyler Williams

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.49

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 48

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
32%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
40%
15 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
45%
29 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th