Skip to main content
← Back to GamesAug 31, 2019Week 1
ToledoToledo
24
-Final
38
KentuckyKentucky

House Prediction

Model Margin

Kentucky by 12.9

Home Win Probability

Kentucky 78%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Aug 31, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
773724
KentuckyKentucky
014101438

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-77-1414-1417-1424-1424-1738-1738-24
KentuckyToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTOLKENTD763ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT836ydTD1497ydTD775ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT3-6ydTD356ydPUNT625ydPUNT427ydEND318ydPUNT39ydTO15ydFG46ydPUNT31ydTD567ydPUNT38ydTO345ydFG533ydPUNT55ydPUNT420ydPUNT37ydPUNT420ydTD792ydTO28ydTD533ydPUNT30ydTO2-4ydTD641ydEND2-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Kentucky
StatisticToledoKentucky
Passing11-2519-26
Pass Yards166246
Rush Yards181176
Total Yards347422
Turnovers22
3rd Down7-163-11
Penalties11-807-61
Possession29:1530:45

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Mitchell Guadagni
7/12, 122 YDS
rushing
Mitchell Guadagni
14 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Bryce Mitchell
3 REC, 59 YDS
defense
Kentucky
passing
Terry Wilson
19/26, 246 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Kavosiey Smoke
7 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Lynn Bowden Jr.
6 REC, 77 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 43

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd to the Toled 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.04

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 39 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Jamari Brown

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Kent 15

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.24

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 10 yds to the Kent 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Kent 34

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.18

Asim Rose run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 30

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 25

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Terry Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 55 yds, downed at the Toled 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds to the Toled 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.52

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 19 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Danzel McKinley-Lewis) to the Toled 38

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 7 yds to the Toled 45

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.67

Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Kent 42

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 44

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 3

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Asim Rose run for 9 yds to the Kent 12

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.80

Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 10

3rd & 3Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.94

Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 14 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 6 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.58

Terry Wilson pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 5 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Asim Rose run for 7 yds to the Kent 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 2 yds to the Kent 44

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 44

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.22

Kavosiey Smoke run for 3 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 42

1st & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.81

Kavosiey Smoke run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.72

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 21 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Terry Wilson run for 7 yds to the Toled 22

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Jordan Hendy) 15 yards to the TOLEDO7, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 7Penalty+4 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the Toled 3

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown0 ydsPPA +1.90

Justin Rigg 0 Yd fumble recovery (Chance Poore Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.96

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds to the KENTUCKY 44 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

[SHOT], M. Guadagni pass incomplete to Devin Maddox, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the UK49, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.45

Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 49

2nd & 17Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.90

Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Kent 42

3rd & 8Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.30

Mitchell Guadagni run for 17 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Kent 21

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.74

Mitchell Guadagni run for 21 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -1.40

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 19 Terry Wilson fumbled, recovered by Kent

3rd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 22

4th & 12Punt+1 yds

Max Duffy punt for 56 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 1 yd to the Toled 23 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Toled 13

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 16

2nd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.45

Mitchell Guadagni sacked by T.J. Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 11

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Bryce Mitchell) to the Toled 6

3rd & 17Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.02

Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 7

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Lynn Bowden Jr. at the Kent 44

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Keaton Upshaw) to the Kent 39

1st & 15Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.73

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 29 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.35

Asim Rose run for 21 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Asim Rose run for 11 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the Toled 29

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.99

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 22 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.79

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43

2nd & 13Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Brandin Echols

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 26 yds, downed at the Kent 24

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.87

Kavosiey Smoke run for 21 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Kavosiey Smoke run for 8 yds to the Toled 47

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.79

Kavosiey Smoke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 49

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, broken up by Samuel Womack

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 46 yds, downed at the Toled 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 7

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.41

Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 21

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Terry Wilson run for 3 yds to the Kent 12

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 4 yds to the Kent 16

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 18

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 53 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 29

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -1.22

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 34 Bryant Koback fumbled, forced by Joshua Paschal, recovered by Kent Yusuf Corker

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 37

3rd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 9 yds to the Toled 28

4th & 4Field Goal Good+46 ydsPPA +0.22

Chance Poore 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, delay of game (Mitchell Guadagni) to the Toled 21

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 26

2nd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.62

Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Joshua Paschal for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 16

3rd & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.11

Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 27

4th & 9Punt+6 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds , Josh Ali returns for 6 yds to the Kent 33

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 34

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Terry Wilson run for 4 yds to the Kent 38

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Ahmad Wagner, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Chris Mcdonald) 15 yards to the TOLEDO47, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.80

Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 17 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.85

Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 32

2nd & 12Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +3.66

Terry Wilson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 32 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 30

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Toled 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Lynn Bowden Jr. at the Kent 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.18

Terry Wilson pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 40 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin Rigg

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -2.71

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 2 yds Lynn Bowden Jr. fumbled, forced by Saeed Holt, recovered by Toled Nate Givhan

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.60

Mitchell Guadagni run for 19 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, targeting (Chris Oats) to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 7 yds to the Kent 21

3rd & 3Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.17

Carter Bradley sacked by DeAndre Square and Jamar Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 29

4th & 11Field Goal Good+46 ydsPPA +1.14

Evan Davis 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 30

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.74

Christopher Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Terry Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 34

2nd & 11Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.66

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 32

3rd & 13Penalty-15 yds

[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey for 28 yards to the TOLEDO40 (Kahlil Robinson), PENALTY UK illegal use of hands (Logan Stenberg) 15 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY.

3rd & 28Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.08

Terry Wilson pass complete to Asim Rose for 13 yds to the Kent 30

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Max Duffy punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.76

Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 12 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Carter Bradley pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 8 yds to the Toled 37

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Carter Bradley pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt+58 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 58 yds , Lynn Bowden Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 4

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Asim Rose run for 6 yds to the Kent 10

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Asim Rose run for 3 yds to the Kent 13

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.36

Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 11

4th & 3Punt+5 yds

Max Duffy punt for 61 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 5 yds to the Toled 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.59

Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Kent 47

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Brandin Echols

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew Rosi

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds, downed at the Kent 8

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh Ali

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Josh Ali

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.23

Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 17 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Terry Wilson run for 5 yds to the Kent 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.55

Terry Wilson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 30 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Kavosiey Smoke run for 40 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Carter Bradley run for 8 yds to the Toled 33

2nd & 2Pass Interception Return-3 ydsPPA -1.83

Carter Bradley pass intercepted DeAndre Square return for 3 yds to the Toled 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.27

Terry Wilson pass complete to Ahmad Wagner for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST down

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.32

Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty+6 yds

[SHOT], Terry Wilson pass incomplete to Justin Rigg, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Kahlil Robinson) 6 yards to the TOLEDO2, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Asim Rose run for no gain to the Toled 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Terry Wilson pass complete to Josh Ali for 2 yds for a TD, (Chance Poore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 29

2nd & 6Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.98

Carter Bradley sacked by Calvin Taylor Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 24

3rd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Carter Bradley run for 1 yd to the Toled 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 45

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.25

Terry Wilson sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 39

2nd & 16Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -0.47

Terry Wilson pass complete to Christopher Rodriguez Jr. for 6 yds Christopher Rodriguez Jr. fumbled, forced by Daniel Bolden, recovered by Toled Dyontae Johnson , return for 3 yds to the Kent 38

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Ronnie Jones run for 9 yds to the Kent 29

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Brandin Echols

3rd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.54

Ronnie Jones run for 15 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+7 yds

[SHOT], Carter Bradley sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UK22 (Jamin Davis), PENALTY UK face mask (Jamin Davis) 7 yards to the UK7, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Carter Bradley pass incomplete

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew Rosi, broken up by Jamari Brown

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Carter Bradley run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Team run for no gain to the Toled 43

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
30%
23 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
42%
12 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
58%
26 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
40%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play