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← Back to GamesDec 31, 2018Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan State by 1.4

Home Win Probability

Oregon 45%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Dec 31, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Michigan StateMichigan State
00606
OregonOregon
00077

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q407140-30-67-6
OregonMichigan State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSOREMSPUNT30ydPUNT32ydPUNT621ydPUNT619ydPUNT510ydPUNT32ydPUNT38ydTO846ydPUNT742ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT37ydDOWNS1156ydPUNT37ydPUNT733ydEND1-5ydFG1264ydPUNT34ydPUNT30ydPUNT78ydFG831ydUncategorized30ydPUNT3-1ydTD677ydMISS632ydDOWNS633ydDOWNS1233ydTO32ydUncategorized2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan State and Oregon
StatisticMichigan StateOregon
Passing21-3819-33
Pass Yards174166
Rush Yards15742
Total Yards331208
Turnovers10
3rd Down8-222-14
Penalties5-352-15
Possession37:1722:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan State
passing
Brian Lewerke
21/37, 174 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
LJ Scott
24 CAR, 84 YDS
receiving
Cody White
6 REC, 64 YDS
defense
Oregon
passing
Justin Herbert
19/33, 166 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
CJ Verdell
14 CAR, 43 YDS
receiving
Dillon Mitchell
6 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson III

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell

4th & 10Punt+2 yds

Blake Maimone punt for 37 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 2 yds to the MchSt 32

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the MchSt 38

2nd & 4Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.05

Brian Lewerke sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 28

3rd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Brian Lewerke run for 6 yds to the MchSt 34

4th & 8Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 20

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 2 yds to the Oregn 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.66

Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 10 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 38

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Justin Herbert pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Blake Maimone punt for 36 yds, downed at the MchSt 23

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 18

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the MchSt 20

2nd & 13Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.85

LJ Scott run for 12 yds to the MchSt 32

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.80

Brian Lewerke run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 42

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 42

4th & 1Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 36 yds, downed at the Oregn 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the Oregn 31

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 3 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 40

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell

3rd & 4Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -1.16

Justin Herbert pass complete to Travis Dye for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 32

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Tom Snee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the MchSt 34

4th & 8Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ugochukwu Amadi at the Oregn 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Oregn 30

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Ryan Bay

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Tom Snee punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 34

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.22

LJ Scott run for 7 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.67

Brian Lewerke run for 25 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 30

1st & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for 2 yds to the Oregn 28

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 8 yds to the Oregn 20

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.89

Brian Lewerke pass intercepted Jevon Holland return for no gain to the Oregn 16

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 15

2nd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 14 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the Oregn 37

2nd & 2Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.50

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 21 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to CJ Verdell

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

CJ Verdell run for no gain to the MchSt 42

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tom Snee punt for 42 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the MchSt 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.25

Brian Lewerke sacked by La'Mar Winston Jr. and Justin Hollins for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 16

4th & 14Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 47 yds, downed at the Oregn 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the Oregn 41

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 42

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 2 yds to the Oregn 44

4th & 3Punt+3 yds

Tom Snee punt for 38 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 21

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 16

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15

2nd & 16Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.28

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 25

3rd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.21

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 7 yds to the MchSt 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.00

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Sokol for 10 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.48

Brian Lewerke run for 11 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the Oregn 24 Connor Heyward fumbled, recovered by MchSt

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.48

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.06

Justin Herbert sacked by Jacub Panasiuk and - Team for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 15

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jaylon Redd

3rd & 18Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.32

Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 15 yds to the Oregn 30

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Blake Maimone punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 3 yds to the MchSt 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 10 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 10 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.78

Brian Lewerke pass complete to LJ Scott for no gain to the Oregn 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 38 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.83

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 15

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

LJ Scott run for 4 yds to the MchSt 28

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.28

Brian Lewerke run for 17 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Brian Lewerke run for 2 yds to the MchSt 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 10 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 41

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.12

LJ Scott run for 14 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Cody White for 11 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Darrell Stewart Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 16

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+34 ydsPPA -0.11

Matt Coghlin 34 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 4 yds to the Oregn 15

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 15

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell

4th & 6Punt+5 yds

Blake Maimone punt for 40 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

LJ Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.

4th & 10Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 49 yds, downed at the Oregn 1

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

CJ Verdell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 2

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 5

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 5 yds to the Oregn 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -0.71

Justin Herbert pass complete to CJ Verdell for 1 yd to the Oregn 18 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (-9 Yards) to the Oregn 9

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob Breeland

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Justin Herbert pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Blake Maimone punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the Oregn 47

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

LJ Scott run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 39

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.86

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.41

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Matt Dotson for 17 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the Oregn 18

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 2 yds to the Oregn 16

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Darrell Stewart Jr.

4th & 7Field Goal Good+34 ydsPPA -0.37

Matt Coghlin 34 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

CJ Verdell run for 6 yds to the Oregn 12

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Justin Herbert pass incomplete

3rd & 4Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.26

Justin Herbert sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 6

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Blake Maimone punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 45

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete to Cody White

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

LJ Scott run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 41

3rd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Brian Lewerke run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44

4th & 11Punt+9 yds

William Przystup punt for 42 yds , Ugochukwu Amadi returns for 9 yds to the Oregn 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.26

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 15 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.14

Justin Herbert pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 18 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 9 yds to the MchSt 32

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.38

Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Dillon Mitchell 28 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Adam Stack Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jalen Nailor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.59

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 26 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.45

Brian Lewerke sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 39

2nd & 14Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Brian Lewerke run for 7 yds to the Oregn 32

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Matt Coghlin 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 7 yds to the Oregn 39

2nd & 3Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.35

CJ Verdell run for 16 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

CJ Verdell run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon Mitchell

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Justin Herbert run for no gain to the MchSt 28

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 8 yds to the MchSt 43

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

LJ Scott run for no gain to the MchSt 46

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Brian Lewerke run for 8 yds to the Oregn 46

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

LJ Scott run for 2 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Brian Lewerke pass complete to Darrell Stewart Jr. for 6 yds to the Oregn 38

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Brian Lewerke run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

LJ Scott run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30

3rd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.38

Brian Lewerke run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 32 Brian Lewerke fumbled, recovered by MchSt

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.80

Brian Lewerke pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.19

CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 30

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34

4th & 8Punt+4 yds

Blake Maimone punt for 32 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for 4 yds to the MchSt 42 Jalen Nailor fumbled, recovered by MchSt , return for 4 yds to the MchSt 42

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Brian Lewerke run for no gain to the MchSt 42

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.05

Jalen Nailor run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 40

Situational Analysis

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
27%
30 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
44%
18 plays
100%
4 plays
3rd
75%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays

Oregon

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
23 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
0%
5 plays
25%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th