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← Back to GamesJan 1, 2019Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 3.6

Home Win Probability

Iowa 39%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Jan 1, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
6013322
IowaIowa
0177327

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-63-617-617-1924-1924-2227-22
IowaMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWMSIOWPUNT35ydPUNT3-12ydFG1039ydPUNT32ydFG923ydFG1049ydPUNT516ydTD175ydTO3-9ydTD213ydPUNT1029ydPUNT30ydEND3-2ydTO45ydTD36ydTD133ydPUNT519ydTO617ydTD632ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-1ydFG549ydPUNT35ydTO445ydFG650ydPUNT39ydPUNT38ydDOWNS937ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Iowa
StatisticMississippi StateIowa
Passing14-3221-31
Pass Yards152214
Rush Yards190-15
Total Yards342199
Turnovers32
3rd Down5-171-11
Penalties8-900-0
Possession33:3426:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
14/32, 152 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
20 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Stephen Guidry
1 REC, 51 YDS
defense
Iowa
passing
Nathan Stanley
21/31, 214 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Toren Young
3 CAR, 7 YDS
receiving
Nick Easley
8 REC, 104 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 20

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kyle Groeneweg at the Iowa 30

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.28

Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 26

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 27

3rd & 13Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.21

Nate Stanley sacked by Chauncey Rivers and Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 18

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Colten Rastetter punt for 47 yds , Malik Dear returns for no gain to the MisSt 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.93

Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 4 yds to the Iowa 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Iowa 37

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.86

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Iowa 31

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 1 yd to the Iowa 26

4th & 2Field Goal Good+44 ydsPPA -0.17

Jace Christmann 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.52

Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 28

2nd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 5 yds to the Iowa 33

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 2 yds to the Iowa 35

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Colten Rastetter punt for 12 yds , Aaron Brule returns for no gain to the Iowa 47

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Iowa 44

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Keytaon Thompson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 39

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.90

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Iowa 29

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 30

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson

2nd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 6 yds to the Iowa 24

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse Jackson

4th & 9Field Goal Good+42 ydsPPA +0.44

Jace Christmann 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.52

Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 24 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the Iowa 41

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.59

Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.84

Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 2 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the MisSt 33

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the MisSt 33

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 7 yds to the MisSt 26

4th & 3Field Goal Good+44 ydsPPA -0.06

Miguel Recinos 44 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Devonta Jason

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.95

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 41

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kyle Groeneweg at the Iowa 25

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 75 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.78

Nick Gibson run for 12 yds to the MisSt 34 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Nick Gibson) to the MisSt 19

2nd & 13Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.26

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by A.J. Epenesa for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 13 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by A.J. Epenesa, recovered by Iowa

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Nate Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 15

2nd & 12Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.97

Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 15 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 2 yds to the Iowa 38

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Iowa 37

3rd & 7Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.49

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Iowa 36 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Iowa 46

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 46 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon Smith

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Nick Easley

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Brandon Smith

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Colten Rastetter punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 47

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Kylin Hill

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tommy Champion) to the MisSt 37

3rd & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.18

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 45

0th & 20End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Iowa 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.15

Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.51

Nate Stanley sacked by Montez Sweat and Johnathan Abram for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 48

2nd & 17Pass Interception Return-46 ydsPPA -1.01

Nate Stanley pass intercepted Willie Gay Jr. return for 46 yds to the Iowa 6

1st & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Iowa 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the Iowa 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Nick Fitzgerald run for 33 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Toren Young run for 3 yds to the Iowa 37

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Nate Stanley pass complete to Toren Young for 3 yds to the Iowa 40

3rd & 4Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mark McLaurin) to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Toren Young run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.14

Nate Stanley sacked by Jeffery Simmons and Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 47

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Nate Stanley pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Colten Rastetter punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 20

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 19

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the MisSt 29

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.96

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return-4 ydsPPA -0.51

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Chauncey Golston return for 4 yds to the MisSt 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Nate Stanley pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Nate Stanley pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Nate Stanley pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 7 yds to the MisSt 13

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 2 yds to the MisSt 11

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.68

Nate Stanley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 8 yds for a TD, (Miguel Recinos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 70 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 19

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi Sargent

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Nate Stanley pass incomplete to T.J. Hockenson

4th & 11Punt+9 yds

Colten Rastetter punt for 42 yds , Malik Dear returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +3.07

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 51 yds to the Iowa 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 2

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 3

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Iowa 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 ydsPPA -1.08

Jace Christmann 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Toren Young run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Nate Stanley pass incomplete to Mekhi Sargent

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the Iowa 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Colten Rastetter punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.40

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 34 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the Iowa 23

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Iowa 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-28 ydsPPA -4.38

Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Jake Gervase return for 28 yds to the Iowa 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.85

Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 20 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.19

Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 22 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 4 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nate Stanley pass complete to Mekhi Sargent for 4 yds to the MisSt 22

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Nate Stanley pass incomplete

4th & 2Field Goal Good+40 ydsPPA -0.44

Miguel Recinos 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris Williams

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34

4th & 1Punt+4 yds

Tucker Day punt for 54 yds , Kyle Groeneweg returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 16

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 21

2nd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Nate Stanley pass complete to Nick Easley for 2 yds to the Iowa 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Nate Stanley pass complete to T.J. Hockenson for 1 yd to the Iowa 24

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Colten Rastetter punt for 45 yds, downed at the MisSt 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 7 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.76

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 15 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 5 yds to the Iowa 32

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.29

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 31

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
38%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
17%
12 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
57%
7 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Iowa

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
23 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
9 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
33%
3 plays