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← Back to GamesNov 24, 2018Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Arkansas State by 18

Home Win Probability

Texas State 11%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 24, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arkansas StateArkansas State
7021533
Texas StateTexas State
00707

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-217-287-307-33
Texas StateArkansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASASTSASTSTSASTSASTSASTSASTSPUNT748ydPUNT511ydMISS1044ydTO324ydTO111ydTD967ydPUNT58ydPUNT39ydPUNT421ydPUNT427ydDOWNS1562ydEND846ydPUNT3-3ydTD157ydTD792ydTD38ydPUNT39ydTD669ydPUNT843ydDOWNS1090ydSAF1-2ydPUNT37ydPUNT33ydFG1039ydEND738yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas State and Texas State
StatisticArkansas StateTexas State
Passing18-2416-27
Pass Yards276133
Rush Yards217242
Total Yards493375
Turnovers11
3rd Down6-163-13
Penalties4-376-50
Possession31:5228:08

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas State
passing
Justice Hansen
18/24, 276 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Warren Wand
14 CAR, 145 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kirk Merritt
6 REC, 153 YDS, 2 TD
Texas State
passing
Tyler Vitt
15/26, 133 YDS
rushing
Alec Harris
5 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kelton Powell
1 REC, 31 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Caleb Twyford run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.91

Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Tyler Watts run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.77

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Kelton Powell for 31 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.42

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 27

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 26 yds, downed at the ArkSt 1

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 2

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.66

Justice Hansen pass complete to Omar Bayless for 15 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -0.77

Kirk Merritt run for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 10

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Clifton Lewis Jr.

3rd & 17Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 12

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.79

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 20 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.27

Tyler Vitt run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the ArkSt 23

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 21

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 9 yds to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tyler Vitt run for no gain to the ArkSt 12

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 14

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+30 yds

Chris Kessler 30 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Marcel Murray run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Omar Bayless

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+19 ydsPPA -0.01

Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 19 yds Justin McInnis fumbled, forced by A.J. Krawczyk, recovered by TexSt Nikolas Daniels

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+5 ydsPPA -3.59

Keenen Brown run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 33 Keenen Brown fumbled, forced by B.J. Edmonds, recovered by ArkSt Tajhea Chambers

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis, broken up by Bryan London II

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.54

Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for no gain to the ArkSt 33

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.83

Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 14 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Warren Wand run for 13 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 5 yds to the TexSt 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.38

Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 9 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Justin Dutton) to the TexSt 31

1st & 15Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.70

Warren Wand run for 19 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the TexSt 8

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.55

Warren Wand run for 8 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25

2nd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Caleb Twyford run for 14 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tyler Vitt sacked by Darreon Jackson for 0 yards to the TexSt 39

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -1.18

Tyler Vitt sacked by Dajon Emory for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 33 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by TexSt Keenen Brown , return for 0 yards

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 44 yds, downed at the ArkSt 23

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Justice Hansen run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Marcel Murray run for no gain to the ArkSt 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSt 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.39

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Blake Aragon for 15 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Anthony J. Taylor run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 49

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.31

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 2Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Tyler Vitt sacked by Kevin Thurmon for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 49

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 30 yds, downed at the ArkSt 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.67

Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 20 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Justice Hansen run for no gain to the ArkSt 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for 6 yds to the TexSt 26

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.01

Tyler Vitt run for 6 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Tyler Watts run for 12 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 45

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.02

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, targeting (Kevin Thurmon) to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Anthony J. Taylor run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 31 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 7 yds to the ArkSt 34

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.85

Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24

2nd & 5Penalty-15 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Blake Aragon) to the ArkSt 39

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Blake Aragon

3rd & 20Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 8 yds to the ArkSt 31

4th & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA -1.55

Tyler Vitt run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 21

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Marcel Murray run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28

2nd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.74

Marcel Murray run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Justice Hansen pass complete to Justin McInnis for 8 yds to the ArkSt 45

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.17

Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.90

Justice Hansen sacked by Jakharious Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 40

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Warren Wand

3rd & 20Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.98

Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 14 yds to the TexSt 46

4th & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.21

Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 13 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.22

Justice Hansen sacked by Nikolas Daniels for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 15

2nd & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.05

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16

3rd & 19Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Justice Hansen run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 43

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +4.47

Alec Harris run for 57 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 13

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Jonathan Adams Jr.

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.81

Justice Hansen pass complete to Warren Wand for 8 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Warren Wand run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 23

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Warren Wand run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +4.76

Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 60 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 21

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 1 yd to the TexSt 22

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown

4th & 2Punt+17 yds

Clayton Stewart punt , Justin McInnis returns for 17 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Alec Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 3 yds to the TexSt 18

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 23

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 31 , Warren Wand returns for no gain to the ArkSt 31

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Marcel Murray run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 38

3rd & 3Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.69

Marcel Murray run for 18 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Justice Hansen run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Marcel Murray run for 2 yds to the TexSt 39

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +4.31

Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 39 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.65

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Alec Harris for 11 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason Hays

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.42

Jaylin Nelson run for 18 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaylin Nelson run for no gain to the TexSt 45

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.30

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 16 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Aaron Brewer) to the ArkSt 44

1st & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 3 yds to the ArkSt 41

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Tyler Watts

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 33 yds, fair catch by B.J. Edmonds at the ArkSt 8

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.78

Warren Wand run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 17

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.08

Warren Wand run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Warren Wand run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.91

Warren Wand run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 27

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.91

Justice Hansen pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 10 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+53 ydsPPA +2.54

Warren Wand run for 53 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Warren Wand run for 8 yds to the TexSt 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Warren Wand run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Justice Hansen run for no gain to the TexSt 1

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -4.21

Justice Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2

1st & 10Safety-2 ydsPPA -2.02

Alec Harris run for a loss of 2 yards for a SAFETY

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Justice Hansen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 41

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Justice Hansen pass complete to Marcel Murray for 4 yds to the ArkSt 45

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Cody Grace punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 3

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Blake Aragon

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaylin Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2

3rd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.00

Jaylin Nelson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 6

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds, downed at the ArkSt 48

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Marcel Murray run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 49

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Wand, Warren rush over left end for 15 yards to the TXST36, out-of-bounds (Waddy,JaShon;Davis,Ishmael), PENALTY ASU holding (Harris Jr., Andre) 10 yards to the ASU39, NO PLAY, PENALTY ASU HOL declined.

2nd & 19Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.88

Justice Hansen pass complete to Kirk Merritt for 30 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the TexSt 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Justice Hansen pass incomplete to Justin McInnis

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Justice Hansen run for 4 yds to the TexSt 25

4th & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.36

Armond Weh-Weh run for 5 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Armond Weh-Weh run for 3 yds to the TexSt 15

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Armond Weh-Weh run for 2 yds to the TexSt 13

4th & 3Field Goal Good+30 ydsPPA -0.80

Blake Grupe 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jacob Rowland) to the TexSt 20

1st & 15Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.65

Tyler Watts run for 13 yds to the TexSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Alec Harris run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Alec Harris run for 9 yds to the TexSt 49

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jalen Momerelle) to the TexSt 44

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.74

Jaylen Gipson run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jaylen Gipson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jaylen Gipson pass complete to Tyler Watts for no gain to the ArkSt 38

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

LeDarrius Harris run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37

Situational Analysis

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
44%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
44%
9 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
37%
27 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
43%
14 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play