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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2018Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Miami by 21.9

Home Win Probability

Miami 89%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
1000010
MiamiMiami
141901447

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842560-314-317-1024-1030-1033-1040-1047-10
MiamiNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MIANCMIANCNCMIANCNCMIANCMIANCMIANCMIANCMIANCNCMIANCMIAPUNT433ydFG1178ydTD475ydTD3-11ydTD770ydFG1057ydTD725ydPUNT511ydTD779ydTO728ydEND222ydTO49ydTO49ydPUNT30ydTO2-2ydMISS57ydPUNT3-3ydTD1033ydDOWNS727ydTD1161ydTO854ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and Miami
StatisticNorth CarolinaMiami
Passing20-358-12
Pass Yards114125
Rush Yards215229
Total Yards329354
Turnovers62
3rd Down2-133-6
Penalties4-407-65
Possession33:1226:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Nathan Elliott
16/25, 104 YDS
rushing
Michael Carter
7 CAR, 75 YDS
receiving
defense
Miami
passing
N'Kosi Perry
8/12, 125 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
DeeJay Dallas
11 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Mike Harley
2 REC, 70 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.21

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 28 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Travis Homer run for no gain to the MiaFl 44

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.02

Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 43

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jack Spicer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 17

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.40

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 39

1st & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.51

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 3 yds to the NCaro 42

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 3 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.37

Michael Carter run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jake Bargas

2nd & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.07

Michael Carter run for 30 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 ydsPPA -0.95

Freeman Jones 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.77

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brian Hightower for 13 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+56 ydsPPA +3.07

Travis Homer run for 56 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antoine Green for 1 yd to the NCaro 31

3rd & 6Sack+9 ydsPPA +2.01

Nathan Elliott sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 15 yards Nathan Elliott fumbled, forced by Shaquille Quarterman, recovered by MiaFl Jonathan Garvin , return for 0 yards , return for 9 yds, (Bubba Baxa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jake Bargas

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 41

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +3.31

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.65

Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.18

Chazz Surratt run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Chazz Surratt run for 17 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.30

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 22 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence Cager

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.75

N'Kosi Perry run for 12 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Brevin Jordan) to the NCaro 41

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37

2nd & 11Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.30

DeeJay Dallas run for 17 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17

2nd & 7Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.50

N'Kosi Perry sacked by Trey Morrison for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 18

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Darrell Langham

4th & 8Field Goal Good+35 ydsPPA -0.15

Bubba Baxa 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Chazz Surratt run for 20 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 40

1st & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.17

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Beau Corrales for 13 yds to the MiaFl 47

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.99

Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.98

Chazz Surratt run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44

2nd & 11Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.06

Michael Carter run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 17Interception Return Touchdown-42 ydsPPA -7.42

Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Joe Jackson return for 42 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23

2nd & 12Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.50

Chazz Surratt run for 20 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.21

Jordon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 42

3rd & 11Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -0.67

Chazz Surratt sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 36 Chazz Surratt fumbled, forced by Joe Jackson, recovered by NCaro Chazz Surratt , return for 0 yards

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 21

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

N'Kosi Perry run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26

2nd & 5Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.48

DeeJay Dallas run for 25 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the NCaro 47

2nd & 8Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.49

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 42 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

N'Kosi Perry run for no gain to the NCaro 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence Cager

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 5 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Chazz Surratt run for 7 yds to the NCaro 28

2nd & 3Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Antonio Williams run for 15 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Chazz Surratt sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 42

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.29

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 12 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.14

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 49

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson

3rd & 15Pass Interception Return-25 ydsPPA -0.51

Chazz Surratt pass intercepted Jhavonte Dean return for 25 yds to the NCaro 33

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.38

DeeJay Dallas run for 22 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+28 ydsPPA -1.48

Bubba Baxa 28 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 6 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-6 ydsPPA -0.81

Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 34 Nathan Elliott fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Jonathan Garvin

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22

2nd & 9Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.96

N'Kosi Perry sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 25 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro Jeremiah Clarke , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Carl Tucker

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24

3rd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaquan Johnson at the MiaFl 36

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.36

DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 34

2nd & 12Pass Interception Return-19 ydsPPA -0.50

N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Bryson Richardson return for 19 yds to the MiaFl 38

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Elliott, Nathan pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Willis III, Gerald) 15 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.24

Jordon Brown run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Johnathon Sutton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7

2nd & 7Penalty-15 yds

Elliott, Nathan pass incomplete to Walston, Garrett, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Ratliff-Williams, Anthony) 15 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY.

2nd & 22Pass Reception-9 ydsPPA -2.57

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 31

3rd & 31Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

4th & 31Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Freeman Jones 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

Perry, N'Kosi rush for 4 yards to the MIAMI37, PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY.

2nd & 18Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -0.21

Travis Homer run for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 15 Travis Homer fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by MiaFl Travis Homer

3rd & 26Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.09

N'Kosi Perry run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28

4th & 13Punt+15 yds

Jack Spicer punt for 41 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 15 yds to the NCaro 46

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -1.16

Thomas Jackson run for no gain to the NCaro 46 Thomas Jackson fumbled, forced by Zach McCloud, recovered by NCaro Jake Bargas

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.05

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 12 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Elliott, Nathan pass complete to Williams, Antonio for 16 yards to the MIAMI25, PENALTY UNC illegal block 10 yards to the UNC49, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.60

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 17 yds to the MiaFl 34

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Elliott, Nathan rush for no gain to the MIAMI34, PENALTY UNC holding 10 yards to the MIAMI44, NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson

4th & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.81

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 20 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 25

3rd & 11Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Chazz Surratt pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21

4th & 7Interception Return Touchdown-83 ydsPPA -10.02

Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Romeo Finley return for 83 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.87

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 13 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.69

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 44

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.37

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 45

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.61

DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.61

DeeJay Dallas run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 47

1st & 13Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.50

Travis Homer run for 16 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Travis Homer run for no gain to the NCaro 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 4 yds to the NCaro 33

3rd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.27

DeeJay Dallas run for 10 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.47

DeeJay Dallas run for 16 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Trayone Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.39

Antwuan Branch run for 18 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Antwuan Branch run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40

3rd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.79

Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45

2nd & 8Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.50

Johnathon Sutton run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Johnathon Sutton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -4.06

Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 27 Nathan Elliott fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Bradley Jennings Jr.

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 25

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
35%
31 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
36%
14 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
22%
9 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Miami

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
38%
21 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
80%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play