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← Back to GamesOct 27, 2018Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Virginia by 18.8

Home Win Probability

Virginia 85%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Oct 27, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
770721
VirginiaVirginia
1437731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-714-717-717-1424-1431-1431-21
VirginiaNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRNCVIRTD1383ydTD1175ydTD675ydPUNT38ydTO10ydPUNT34ydFG937ydTD880ydPUNT31ydPUNT35ydEND48ydPUNT32ydTD462ydPUNT518ydPUNT632ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS738ydTO419ydTD335ydPUNT30ydPUNT619ydTD892ydPUNT613ydDOWNS621ydEND422yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and Virginia
StatisticNorth CarolinaVirginia
Passing22-3818-27
Pass Yards271217
Rush Yards66208
Total Yards337425
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-146-13
Penalties4-191-5
Possession20:5539:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Nathan Elliott
22/38, 271 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Michael Carter
8 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Beau Corrales
4 REC, 62 YDS
defense
Virginia
passing
Bryce Perkins
18/27, 217 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Bryce Perkins
21 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Olamide Zaccheaus
10 REC, 108 YDS
defense
Juan Thornhill
0.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the Virg 25

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.42

Bryce Perkins run for 19 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 3 yds to the NCaro 33

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.97

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 7 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the NCaro 18

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.79

Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the NCaro 10

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.57

Bryce Perkins run for 10 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 4 yds to the NCaro 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.66

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 17 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 49

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 6 yds to the Virg 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.88

Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the Virg 36

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

Jordon Brown run for no gain to the Virg 36

4th & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.03

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 6 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 30 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jordan Ellis run for 4 yds to the Virg 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 33

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.23

Olamide Zaccheaus run for 29 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the NCaro 27

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.24

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 27 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 13

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Antonio Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 17

2nd & 11Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 4 yds to the NCaro 21

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 5 yds to the NCaro 26

4th & 2Punt+5 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 39 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for 5 yds to the Virg 40

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.24

Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NCaro 16

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 20

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Malik Carney) to the Virg 48

1st & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.55

Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 42 Jordan Ellis fumbled, forced by D.J. Ford, recovered by Virg Jordan Ellis

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.64

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Jordan Ellis run for 7 yds to the NCaro 25

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.36

Bryce Perkins sacked by Jalen Dalton for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 27

3rd & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the NCaro 20

4th & 8Field Goal Good+37 ydsPPA -0.00

Brian Delaney 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete, broken up by Charles Snowden

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.52

Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.66

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Antonio Williams run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.34

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 28 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds to the Virg 16

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.46

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 16 yds for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Ellis run for no gain to the Virg 25

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Virg 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Lester Coleman punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCaro 38

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Antonio Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jake Bargas for 1 yd to the NCaro 43

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 45 yds , Chuck Davis returns for no gain to the Virg 12

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 18

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.91

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 11 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.14

Bryce Perkins sacked by Jeremiah Clarke for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 15

2nd & 19Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Jordan Ellis run for 5 yds to the Virg 20

0th & 19End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau Corrales

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Juan Thornhill

4th & 8Punt+2 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 37 yds , Chuck Davis returns for 2 yds to the Virg 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.05

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 29 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +4.40

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 33 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Bryce Hall

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 14 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 4 yds to the NCaro 43

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 43

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Carl Tucker, broken up by Charles Snowden

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Virg 34

3rd & 4Rush+26 ydsPPA +3.27

Bryce Perkins run for 26 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the NCaro 35

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Myles Dorn

3rd & 5Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.07

Bryce Perkins sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 40

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Lester Coleman punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 14

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Dazz Newsome run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 13

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Antonio Williams

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Matt Gahm

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 41 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for no gain to the Virg 46

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.83

Bryce Perkins run for 11 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly for 7 yds to the NCaro 36

2nd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.17

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Tavares Kelly run for 1 yd to the NCaro 24

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the NCaro 23

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the NCaro 17

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.70

Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the NCaro 16

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jay-Jay McCargo) to the NCaro 11

1st & 15Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.31

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 29 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.97

Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40

3rd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.64

Nathan Elliott sacked by Chris Peace for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 35 Nathan Elliott fumbled, recovered by Virg Bryce Hall , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.77

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 17 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Evan Butts for 16 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, broken up by Bryce Hall

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.35

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Rontavius Groves for no gain to the NCaro 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hunter Lent punt for 37 yds , Tavares Kelly returns for no gain to the Virg 38

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Virg 41

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

PK Kier run for 3 yds to the Virg 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.92

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.35

PK Kier run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 49

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly

3rd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Bryce Perkins run for 8 yds to the NCaro 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Lester Coleman punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 8

1st & 10Penalty-4 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jay-Jay McCargo) to the NCaro 4

1st & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Beau Corrales

2nd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 10

3rd & 8Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.65

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 43 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.00

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 27 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Beau Corrales for 1 yd to the Virg 19

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.34

Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the Virg 11

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.63

Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Michael Carter run for 1 yd for a TD (Freeman Jones KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Virg 26

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 31

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.56

Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 34

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Bryce Perkins pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Virg 38

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Virg 38

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Lester Coleman punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCaro 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 8 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 8 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 5 yds to the NCaro 42

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson, broken up by Brenton Nelson

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the NCaro 33

2nd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA -0.24

Jordan Ellis run for 11 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 16

2nd & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.86

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 20

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
30%
20 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
55%
11 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
31 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
27%
11 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
80%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play