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← Back to GamesNov 17, 2018Week 12
TCUTCU
16
-Final
9
BaylorBaylor
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Baylor by 2.2

Home Win Probability

Baylor 54%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 17, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TCUTCU
367016
BaylorBaylor
60309

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40140-36-36-99-99-16
BaylorTCU

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUTO29ydFG722ydPUNT3-12ydPUNT33ydTD980ydPUNT623ydTO621ydTD486ydPUNT433ydPUNT717ydPUNT38ydPUNT728ydPUNT33ydEND38ydPUNT3-4ydTO52ydPUNT3-5ydFG1064ydTD775ydDOWNS930ydPUNT39ydPUNT743ydPUNT1040ydDOWNS916ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing TCU and Baylor
StatisticTCUBaylor
Passing15-2114-29
Pass Yards151163
Rush Yards160140
Total Yards311303
Turnovers03
3rd Down4-152-13
Penalties8-809-66
Possession34:0925:51

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

TCU
passing
Grayson Muehlstein
11/15, 137 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Emari Demercado
15 CAR, 60 YDS
receiving
Jalen Reagor
4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Baylor
passing
Charlie Brewer
14/29, 163 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
John Lovett
11 CAR, 55 YDS
receiving
Jalen Hurd
4 REC, 68 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 23

2nd & 12Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+5 ydsPPA -0.04

John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 John Lovett fumbled, forced by Ben Banogu, recovered by TCU Markell Simmons

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Bayl 29

1st & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.52

Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the Bayl 16

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Michael Collins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Michael Collins pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 17

3rd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Michael Collins pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 5 yds to the Bayl 12

4th & 8Field Goal Good+29 ydsPPA -0.52

Jonathan Song 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-12 yds

Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Ebner,Trestan for 16 yards to the BU41 (Evans, Arico), PENALTY BU pass interference (Hurd,Jalen) 12 yards to the BU13, NO PLAY.

2nd & 22Rush0 ydsPPA -0.04

Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 13

3rd & 22Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.02

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for no gain to the Bayl 13

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 44

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 39

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Michael Collins pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 6 yds to the TCU 45

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.37

Darius Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 42

3rd & 12Penalty+5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the TCU 47

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Michael Collins pass incomplete to Jaelan Austin

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Adam Nunez punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 8 yds to the Bayl 28

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.16

John Lovett run for 5 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 39

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.57

John Lovett run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.65

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Denzel Mims for 27 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

John Lovett run for 4 yds to the TCU 26

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.34

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 15 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the TCU 7

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.54

Charlie Brewer run for 7 yds for a TD (Connor Martin PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Michael Collins pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 6 yds to the TCU 20

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.28

Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Darius Anderson run for 11 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 40

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -1.81

Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 37 Grayson Muehlstein fumbled,

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete

4th & 8Blocked Punt0 yds

TEAM punt blocked by , punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 31 blocked by

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.43

Charlie Brewer sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 36

2nd & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 4 yds to the TCU 32

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd

4th & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.85

Charlie Brewer run for 15 yds to the TCU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Charlie Brewer run for 11 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -4.95

Charlie Brewer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 14 Charlie Brewer fumbled, recovered by TCU Corey Bethley , return for 4 yds to the TCU 14

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.05

Darius Anderson run for 17 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Darius Anderson run for no gain to the TCU 31

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Grayson Muehlstein run for 4 yds to the TCU 35

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +6.59

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 65 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.65

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 31 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the TCU 41

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the TCU 41

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Josh Fleeks, broken up by Arico Evans

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, downed at the TCU 4

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 6

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Grayson Muehlstein run for 14 yds to the TCU 20 TCU Penalty, Offensive holding (Jaelan Austin) to the TCU 10

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 13

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

TCU Penalty, delay of game (Grayson Muehlstein) to the TCU 8

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 10 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 20

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the TCU 23

3rd & 5Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.31

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 21

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

John Lovett run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Jeff Gladney

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 5 yds to the Bayl 45

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 49 yds, downed at the TCU 6

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 8

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.76

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 13 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.14

Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the TCU 30

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.04

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for no gain to the TCU 36

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

TCU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 31

2nd & 15Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.41

Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 28

3rd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the TCU 34

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Adam Nunez punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 19

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims

2nd & 10Penalty-9 yds

Ebner,Trestan rush for 2 yards to the BU21 (Johnson, Jawuan), PENALTY BU holding (Blackmar,Blake) 9 yards to the BU10, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 14

3rd & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.07

Trestan Ebner run for 8 yds to the Bayl 22

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 41

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the TCU 44

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 49

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 41

2nd & 9Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.34

Jalen Reagor run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 36

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Adam Nunez punt for 46 yds, downed at the Bayl 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.88

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 13 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.56

Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (Blake Blackmar) to the Bayl 23

1st & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris Platt, broken up by Markell Simmons BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined

2nd & 18Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.18

Charlie Brewer sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 20

3rd & 21Pass Interception Return-20 ydsPPA +0.35

Charlie Brewer pass intercepted Trevon Moehrig-Woodard return for 20 yds to the Bayl 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Grayson Muehlstein pass incomplete to Jaelan Austin

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 34

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.45

Grayson Muehlstein sacked by Henry Black for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 42

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Adam Nunez punt for 42 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.46

John Lovett run for 14 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Arico Evans) to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 49

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.18

John Lovett run for 4 yds to the BAYLOR 47 for a 1ST down TCU Penalty, illegal use of hands (Arico Evans) to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Charlie Brewer pass complete to John Lovett for 2 yds to the TCU 30

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Charlie Brewer run for 6 yds to the TCU 24

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.45

John Lovett run for 11 yds to the TCU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 15

2nd & 12Penalty-5 yds

Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, QB hurry by Banogu, Ben, PENALTY BU ineligible downfield on pass (Lawrence,P.) 5 yards to the TCU20, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd

3rd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Charlie Brewer run for 4 yds to the TCU 16

4th & 13Field Goal Good+33 ydsPPA +0.16

Connor Martin 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 1 yd to the TCU 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 27

3rd & 8Penalty+5 yds

Muehlstein, G. pass complete to Barber, Taye for 3 yards to the TCU30 (Lynch,James), PENALTY BU offside defense (Roberts,Greg) 5 yards to the TCU32, NO PLAY.

3rd & 3Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.92

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Taye Barber for 22 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Emari Demercado run for no gain to the Bayl 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Pro Wells for 4 yds to the Bayl 37

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +4.66

Jalen Reagor run for 37 yds for a TD (Jonathan Song KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

John Lovett run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Marques Jones

3rd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.51

Charlie Brewer run for 16 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

John Lovett run for no gain to the Bayl 42

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.30

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 14 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.95

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Chris Platt for 9 yds to the TCU 35

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.51

Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 37

4th & 3Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.06

Charlie Brewer sacked by Jawuan Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 45

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -2.25

TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the TCU 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TCU Emari Demercado , return for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 38

2nd & 17Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.78

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 14 yds to the Bayl 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 2 yds to the Bayl 46

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Adam Nunez punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -0.67

Josh Fleeks run for a loss of 8 yards to the Bayl 6

2nd & 18Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.56

Charlie Brewer run for 23 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.01

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 22 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.89

Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, illegal formation (Marques Jones) to the TCU 37

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the TCU 33

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Trestan Ebner

3rd & 11Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.43

Charlie Brewer sacked by Ridwan Issahaku for a loss of 10 yards to the TCU 43

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jalen Reagor at the TCU 9

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 13

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.93

Emari Demercado run for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Emari Demercado run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 25

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Grayson Muehlstein pass complete to Pro Wells for 8 yds to the TCU 33

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.47

Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 44

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.24

Grayson Muehlstein run for 3 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.99

Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 43

2nd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 48

3rd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Grayson Muehlstein run for 1 yd to the TCU 49

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Adam Nunez punt for 29 yds, downed at the Bayl 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Marques Jones for 3 yds to the Bayl 25

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Chris Platt

4th & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.99

Charlie Brewer pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Charlie Brewer sacked by Arico Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 33

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

Brewer,Charlie pass incomplete to Mims,Denzel, PENALTY TCU pass interference (Gladney, Jeff) 15 yards to the BU48, 1ST DOWN BU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Brewer,Charlie pass complete to Ebner,Trestan for 13 yards to the TCU39, out-of-bounds (Mathis, Ochaun), PENALTY BU holding (Lawrence,P.) 10 yards to the BU38, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.60

Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 38

2nd & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Charlie Brewer run for no gain to the Bayl 38

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Jalen Hurd, broken up by Jeff Gladney

4th & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.29

Charlie Brewer pass incomplete to Denzel Mims

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 39

Situational Analysis

TCU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
10%
10 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
27 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
100%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
11%
9 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
3 plays