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← Back to GamesNov 23, 2018Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 14.2

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 17%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 23, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
7147735
Ole MissOle Miss
03003

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-143-143-213-283-35
Ole MissMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSOMMSPUNT619ydPUNT636ydTO412ydTD730ydPUNT432ydTD886ydPUNT415ydPUNT35ydFG1051ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-2ydTD892ydEND14ydPUNT38ydTO2-7ydTD319ydDOWNS836ydPUNT610ydTO333ydPUNT35ydPUNT712ydTD1189ydPUNT3-1ydEND842yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Ole Miss
StatisticMississippi StateOle Miss
Passing11-1813-25
Pass Yards111152
Rush Yards30937
Total Yards420189
Turnovers03
3rd Down6-130-11
Penalties3-353-24
Possession36:1223:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
11/18, 111 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Nick Fitzgerald
18 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jesse Jackson
2 REC, 31 YDS
defense
Ole Miss
passing
Jordan Ta'amu
8/17, 87 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Isaiah Woullard
11 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
A.J. Brown
5 REC, 102 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 15 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Jordan Sims) to the Miss 35

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Elijah Moore

2nd & 15Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.13

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 19 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43

3rd & 7Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.25

Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 13 yards to the Miss 44

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 42 yds, downed at the MisSt 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21

3rd & 3Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.79

Nick Fitzgerald run for 26 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 18

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds to the Miss 25

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson Knox

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Participation (5 Yards) to the Miss 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -1.31

Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 30 Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, forced by Jeffery Simmons, recovered by MisSt Willie Gay Jr.

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Willie Gay Jr.) to the Miss 45

1st & 25Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.76

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 14 yds to the Miss 31

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Miss 31

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Kylin Hill

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.64

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 14 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Miss 15

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.26

Matt Corral pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 26 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Matt Corral run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the MisSt 46

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Scottie Phillips run for no gain to the MisSt 46

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 14

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.94

Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 23

2nd & 1Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.87

Aeris Williams run for 16 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Aeris Williams run for 13 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Aeris Williams run for 11 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.47

Nick Fitzgerald run for 20 yds to the Miss 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Benito Jones) to the Miss 12

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Miss 8

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Miss 8

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.53

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Scottie Phillips run for 3 yds to the Miss 39

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.04

Elijah Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 2 yds to the Miss 40

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 34

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Isaiah Woullard run for 14 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.14

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 20 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. Brown

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.67

Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 36

3rd & 14Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.29

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds to the MisSt 25

4th & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 4 yds to the MisSt 16

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Jason Pellerin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 15

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson Knox

4th & 5Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.57

Luke Logan 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 31

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.29

Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Josiah Coatney for 0 yards to the MisSt 31 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by Josiah Coatney, recovered by MisSt Aeris Williams , return for 0 yards

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 29

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.06

Scottie Phillips run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 27

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Elijah Moore

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 65 yds , Malik Dear returns for no gain to the MisSt 8

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22

2nd & 7Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.98

Kylin Hill run for 30 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.02

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 25 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 1 yd to the Miss 23

3rd & 10Penalty+14 yds

Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Mitchell, Osirus, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Hamilton, Javien) 14 yards to the OLEMISS9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the Miss 29

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

3rd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.72

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for no gain to the MisSt 37

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 48 yds, downed at the Miss 15

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.69

Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 8

2nd & 17Pass Interception Return-9 ydsPPA +0.31

Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted Johnathan Abram return for 9 yds to the Miss 19

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Aeris Williams run for 10 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Miss 9

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Isaiah Woullard run for 21 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.97

Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 42

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 41

3rd & 15Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.55

Matt Corral pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for 1 yd to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Chauncey Rivers) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Elijah Moore run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Matt Corral pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.49

Matt Corral pass incomplete to Elijah Moore

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.68

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.39

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 49

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse Jackson

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Matt Corral run for no gain to the Miss 19

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.29

Matt Corral pass complete to A.J. Brown for 33 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.31

Matt Corral pass intercepted, touchback. Maurice Smitherman return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 25

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 32

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Matt Corral run for 9 yds to the Miss 41

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.04

Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Isaiah Woullard run for no gain to the Miss 46

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.10

Isaiah Woullard run for 13 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the MisSt 41

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Matt Corral run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 7Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.94

TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 48

3rd & 17Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.83

Matt Corral sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 44

4th & 25Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 11

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.81

Nick Fitzgerald run for 27 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 46

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.44

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.97

Kylin Hill run for 18 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the Miss 32

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.74

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 16 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.63

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 15 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Miss 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Matt Corral pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Matt Corral pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the Miss 30

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.57

Matt Corral sacked by Erroll Thompson and Montez Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Mac Brown punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malik Dear at the MisSt 33

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.02

Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.87

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 48

2nd & 14Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.35

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 14 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 5 yds to the Miss 29

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Miss 26

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Dontavian Lee run for 1 yd to the Miss 25

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
52%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
25%
8 plays
38%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays