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← Back to GamesNov 17, 2018Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 32.6

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 97%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 17, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ArkansasArkansas
03306
Mississippi StateMississippi State
314211452

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-010-017-017-624-631-645-652-6
Mississippi StateArkansas

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSARKMSFG1481ydMISS950ydPUNT518ydTO3-2ydTD1153ydPUNT38ydTD872ydTO511ydFG1342ydEND15ydFG760ydTD675ydTO4-21ydTD14ydTO1021ydTD358ydDOWNS525ydTD650ydDOWNS61ydTD872ydPUNT719ydUncategorized317yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas and Mississippi State
StatisticArkansasMississippi State
Passing19-3412-18
Pass Yards150188
Rush Yards69287
Total Yards219475
Turnovers31
3rd Down5-177-10
Penalties9-857-60
Possession27:3932:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas
passing
Ty Storey
16/27, 137 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Rakeem Boyd
14 CAR, 84 YDS
receiving
La'Michael Pettway
4 REC, 83 YDS
defense
Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
9/14, 127 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Aeris Williams
15 CAR, 104 YDS
receiving
Justin Johnson
3 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus Mitchell

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.28

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 36

3rd & 3Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.29

Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the MISSSTATE 48 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Ryan Pulley) to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Ark 28

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Ark 25

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.41

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the Ark 25

1st & 15Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.15

Aeris Williams run for 20 yds to the Ark 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.72

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 7

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 2

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick Thomas

4th & 2Field Goal Good+19 ydsPPA -1.15

Jace Christmann 19 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Boyd, Rakeem rush for 4 yards to the ARKANSAS46, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Gay Jr., Willie) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS47, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -1.03

Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 1 yd to the Ark 48

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 3 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.07

Rakeem Boyd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +0.74

Rakeem Boyd run for 12 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jamal Peters) to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.53

Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 21

2nd & 12Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.20

Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 25

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon Stewart

4th & 16Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Connor Limpert 43 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.50

Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 38

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 6 yds to the MisSt 44

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 16

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Rakeem Boyd run for 5 yds to the Ark 21

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ty Storey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 19

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Storey, Ty pass complete to O'Grady, Cheyenne for 8 yards to the ARKANSAS27, PENALTY ARKANSAS offside (O'Grady, Cheyenne) 5 yards to the ARKANSAS14, NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Ty Storey pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for no gain to the MisSt 47 Deddrick Thomas fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jesse Jackson

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the Ark 44

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.22

Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.40

Nick Gibson run for 12 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Ark 21

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the Ark 11

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Ark 7

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.52

Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Nick Gibson run for no gain to the Ark 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon Stewart

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Ty Storey pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Ty Storey pass complete to Rakeem Boyd for 8 yds to the Ark 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.00

Aeris Williams run for 15 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.31

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 9 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the Ark 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.91

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 15 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Mitchell, Osirus, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (McClellion, Jarques) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Ark 8

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Nick Gibson run for 8 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 8 yds to the Ark 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 40

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady

3rd & 8Sack+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Ty Storey sacked by Johnathan Abram for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 30 Ty Storey fumbled, recovered by MisSt Johnathan Abram , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Ark 30 Johnathan Abram fumbled, recovered by Ark Ty Storey , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Deon Stewart run for 7 yds to the Ark 37

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Rakeem Boyd run for 13 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 7 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

De'Vion Warren pass incomplete

3rd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.02

Ty Storey pass complete to Deon Stewart for 3 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 6 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Ty Storey pass complete to Michael Woods for 2 yds to the MisSt 28

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.48

Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Rakeem Boyd run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Ty Storey pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 7 yds to the MisSt 18

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Ty Storey pass incomplete to Deon Stewart

4th & 4Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA -0.49

Connor Limpert 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Rakeem Boyd run for 4 yds to the Ark 30

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.47

Rakeem Boyd run for 11 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +2.13

Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 47 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Rakeem Boyd run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the MisSt 6

3rd & 4Penalty-15 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (La'Michael Pettway) to the MisSt 21

3rd & 19Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Ty Storey pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 2 yds to the MisSt 19

4th & 17Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the MisSt 14

4th & 12Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.08

Connor Limpert 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.26

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.44

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 17 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the Ark 34

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.40

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Colton Jackson) to the Ark 20

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Ty Storey pass incomplete to De'Vion Warren

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Ty Storey pass incomplete ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Colton Jackson) declined

3rd & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.07

Ty Storey pass complete to Jordan Jones for no gain to the Ark 20

4th & 15Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-16 ydsPPA +0.36

Reid Bauer run for a loss of 16 yards to the Ark 4 Reid Bauer fumbled, forced by Chris Rayford, recovered by MisSt Chris Rayford

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 4 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ty Storey pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the Ark 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.89

Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.26

Ty Storey sacked by Johnathan Abram and Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 26 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ty Storey) to the Ark 26

2nd & 19Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Ty Storey run for 4 yds to the Ark 30

3rd & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.16

Ty Storey pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 18 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MisSt 47

1st & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.48

Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.91

De'Vion Warren sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 13 yards to the MISSSTATE 46 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (De'Vion Warren) to the Ark 46

2nd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Ty Storey pass incomplete

3rd & 23Pass Interception Return-7 ydsPPA +0.03

Ty Storey pass intercepted C.J. Morgan return for 7 yds to the MisSt 42

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Ark 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the Ark 35

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.15

Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Guidry, Stephen, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (McClellion, Jarques) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 15 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Jordan Lawless KICK)

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +2.66

Rakeem Boyd run for 31 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Connor Noland run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Rakeem Boyd run for no gain to the MisSt 40

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Connor Noland pass incomplete

4th & 6Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.39

Connor Noland sacked by Willie Gay Jr. and Montez Sweat for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.87

Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 31

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 27

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.41

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.28

Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Penalty-10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 19

1st & 19Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.06

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Austin Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Jordan Lawless KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)+8 ydsPPA +0.36

Connor Noland pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 8 yds La'Michael Pettway fumbled, recovered by Ark Deon Stewart for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Chase Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 19

2nd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.46

Connor Noland pass complete to Deon Stewart for no gain to the MisSt 19

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Connor Noland run for 2 yds to the MisSt 17

4th & 9Sack-11 ydsPPA -3.13

Connor Noland sacked by Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.00

Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Farrod Green for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Dontavian Lee run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Keytaon Thompson run for 3 yds to the Ark 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.41

Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Dontea Jones for 17 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-12 ydsPPA -2.61

Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Ark 27 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devonta Jason) to the Ark 42

2nd & 22Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.89

Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds to the Ark 33

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete

4th & 13Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +5.75

Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Austin Williams for 33 yds for a TD (Jordan Lawless KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Maleek Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Maleek Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

John Stephen Jones pass complete to Jordan Jones for 5 yds to the Ark 34

4th & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.62

Connor Noland run for 12 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

John Stephen Jones pass incomplete ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declined

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

Maleek Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 44

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

John Stephen Jones pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Reid Bauer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Dontavian Lee run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.08

Dontavian Lee run for 13 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
42%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
14%
7 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
25%
8 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
52%
27 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
73%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play